12 Audibles: Examining crossover potential

Welcome to another week of 12 Audibles, our regular look at storylines from around the CFL. This time around, we start with a look at the playoff situation, and specifically the chances of a crossover...

1. Crossing over: Since the CFL's crossover rule was first introduced in 1996 and modified into its current form in 1997, eight teams (all from the West) have crossed over, with two (B.C. in 2009 and Edmonton in 2008) winning their first playoff game (none have advanced further than that, though). There's a chance we'll see a ninth Western team pull off that crossover this year.  To achieve a crossover, the fourth-place team in one division needs to have a better record than the third-place team in the other one, and while that wouldn't happen if the season ended today (Edmonton's fourth in the West with a 5-7 mark, the same record third-place Toronto has in the East), we're awfully close to it.

The only team likely to pull off a crossover is those 5-7 Eskimos, but it's not just the Argonauts who are vulnerable. Ottawa's only narrowly ahead at 5-5-1, and even division-leading Hamilton is only 6-6. Meanwhile, even 3-9 Montreal isn't thoroughly out of the playoff picture yet. So, the big questions are if Edmonton is a stronger team than at least two of those squads, and if they can get better results from their year-ending schedule.

On the first front, there's a lot to like about the Eskimos. They are the reigning Grey Cup champions, and their point differential on the year is -5, which isn't great overall, but is ahead of Ottawa (-18), Montreal (-46), and Toronto (-53). Their offence is particularly strong, as they're tied for third in the league in points for (28.9 per game), first in the league in offensive yards (411.9), and first in first downs (294). However, it should be kept in mind that some of that raw production comes from them running more plays than anyone else, 59.8 per game, and that has to do with their defence giving up big points (29.3 per game, tied for second-worst in the league).

Still, Edmonton's tied for second in yards per play (6.9), and they're particularly strong in the passing game, posting 337.3 passing yards per game (second) and 8.6 yards per pass (tied for third). They also came very close to knocking off the league's best team, the Calgary Stampeders, two weeks ago, taking them to overtime. (They did lose to the CFL's worst team this past week, though, so don't presume they're consistent world-beaters.) Ottawa and Toronto have also both shown potential this year, but in a vacuum, the Eskimos are probably a safer bet than the Argos, and they may even be a better bet than the Redblacks given the way that team's played lately.

The question then becomes about the schedule, and this is part that may be a little tougher for Edmonton. They host B.C. Friday, then play road games against Winnipeg and Montreal before a bye week, then finish out the season with road games against B.C. and Hamilton before hosting the Argonauts in Week 20. That's three games against current eight-win teams (B.C. and Winnipeg). Their total remaining opponents have a combined record of 38-32 (counting B.C. twice), a winning percentage of .543.

By contrast, Toronto plays Ottawa, Montreal, Calgary, Saskatchewan, Calgary, and then Edmonton, who have a combined record of 35-33-3 (counting Calgary twice), a winning percentage of .493. That schedule looks even more favourable for the Argos when you consider how swayed it is by the Stampeders and their 10-1-1 record showing up twice. If you write both Calgary games off as losses (and they aren't necessarily; weird things happen in this league), the Argos' other opponents have a 15-31-1 record, a .319 winning percentage. The Argos' schedule looks easier than the Eskimos' in general, and they have two games against teams below them in the standings (Montreal and Saskatchewan), while Edmonton doesn't play a team below them in the run-in. Keep in mind that a tie in the standings works out in the Argos' favour, too.

So, there's certainly a good chance of a crossover, but it's far from a sure thing, especially considering the remaining schedules. Much may depend on...

2. If the Eskimos can diversify their passing game. Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly leads the league with 4,053 passing yards, and the Eskimos have the CFL's two leading receivers in Adarius Bowman (89 catches for 1,279 yards) and Derel Walker (78 catches for 1,168 yards). That's a pretty good situation to have in general, but it does mean that 60.4 per cent of Reilly's passing yards have come from those two receivers, which can be a weakness at times.That was illustrated this past week against Saskatchewan when the Roughriders dedicated their two top defensive backs to continuous man-to-man coverage of Bowman and Walker.

While Bowman still had nine catches for 152 yards, he had several big drops from tight coverage and couldn't crack the end zone, and Walker was held to four catches for 44 yards. Edmonton was able to get a few key plays from other guys, including a 72-yard touchdown grab from Nate Coehoorn, but their offence still was perhaps overly focused on targeting Walker and Bowman, and that was a large part of why Reilly threw for 306 yards, but only completed 52.8 per cent of his passes and couldn't finish off many drives.

Spreading the ball around can pay big dividends. For comparison, Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell is second in the league with 3,936 yards, but his top two receivers are Marquay McDaniel (65 catches for 860 yards) and Bakari Grant (44 catches for 625 yards), who combine for just 37.7 per cent of Mitchell's passing yards. The Stampeders target their other receivers more often than the Eskimos do, and that's led to a lot of success for them. Edmonton has other capable guys, including Coehoorn, Cory Watson and Chris Getzlaf, and if their opponents focus on locking down Bowman and Walker the way the Riders did, they may be well-advised to try and get the ball to their other receivers. Another receiver who made a big impact this week for the Eskimos' main rivals for that final playoff berth was...

3. Kenny Shaw. While the Argonauts fell 46-29 to Winnipeg Saturday, Shaw had an excellent performance in a losing cause, posting six catches for 90 yards and two touchdowns. On the season, he has 58 catches for 754 yards and four touchdowns. The 24-year-old from Florida State's in his second year in the CFL, but although he signed with Toronto last May, he only suited up for two games with them in 2015 and didn't have a catch. He's really emerged this year, though, and despite his relatively small stature (he's listed as 6'0'', 170 pounds), he's making a major impact. Shaw has speed to burn, which is why he was a four-star prospect out of high school and found success at FSU (especially in his senior year in 2013, where he had 54 catches for 933 yards and helped the Seminoles win the national championship), and he's showing that in the CFL too, averaging 13 yards per catch. He's also demonstrated good chemistry with...

4. Dan LeFevour. LeFevour was great in his first start last week, a win over Hamilton, and he was pretty decent in this loss too, completing 22 of his 34 passes (64.7 per cent) for 271 yards and four touchdowns (albeit with two interceptions) and carrying the ball 10 times for 57 yards. Head coach Scott Milanovich announced Tuesday that despite the Argos' trade for Drew Willy, they're going to give LeFevour another start Saturday against Ottawa:

From here, that seems like the right call. Despite the Argos' loss and LeFevour's interceptions, he still played well overall Saturday, and Willy's still learning the team's offence. This does raise further questions of why Toronto traded so much for Willy after LeFevour's impressive first performance, though. Another quarterback facing some questions is...

5. Rakeem Cato. Cato came under fire last week for a practice confrontation with Montreal teammates Duron Carter and Kenny Stafford, and he didn't particularly impress in the Alouettes' 20-17 loss to Hamilton Friday. While he completed 70.4 per cent of his passes, he threw for just 168 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. He hasn't been all that great since taking over the starting job in general, either, and like Toronto, Montreal has a backup they paid a lot for sitting on the bench in...

6. Vernon Adams Jr. The former Eastern Washington and Oregon star was highly coveted when he came to the CFL this year, with the Alouettes sending a first-round pick to B.C. just for the right to negotiate with him. However, he hasn't been able to get many reps, being buried behind first Kevin Glenn and now Cato. Has Adams really been so unable to impress in practice that he can't move up? Or will things start to change? That may be up to new coach....

7. Jacques Chapdelaine. Chapdelaine was an unconventional pick to replace Jim Popp (now just the general manager), especially considering that he was only the receivers coach and coordinators Noel Thorpe and Kavis Reed had significantly more buzz around them. The idea may be to use Chapdelaine as a placeholder and hire whichever coordinator impressed more in interviews, but that's still an unconventional move. What will be really interesting to watch is what changes Chapdelaine makes. He's gone from working under offensive coordinator Anthony Calvillo to being his boss, and he's now in overall charge of Thorpe and Reed's respective defensive and special teams units too. The Alouettes have plenty of problems, and they seem to go beyond coaching, but will Chapdelaine be able to make a difference? Will he be able to unify this locker room and rally this team to a few wins? We'll find out. A team in a much better situation is the Alouettes' opponents from last week, Hamilton, and that has a lot to do with...

8. Larry Dean and Emmanuel Davis: We don't always see defensive players on the CFL's weekly lists of three top performers at all, and it's unusual to see two defensive players picked, but even more unusual when they're both from the same team. This week's selections of two Ticats' defensive players, linebacker Larry Dean and defensive back Emmanuel Davis, feel perfectly apropos, however. For one, the Hamilton defence was the most important part of their 20-17 win over Montreal. For another, both of those guys were absolutely essential to the victory, with Dean racking up a team-high eight tackles (also tying his career high) and adding a sack and two forced fumbles, while Davis recovered both of those fumbles and also had a tackle and an interception. Many thought Hamilton would simply roll once quarterback Zach Collaros returned from injury, but the last two weeks have seen less-than-stellar offensive performances, producing just 21 and 20 points respectively. Thanks to the defence in general and to Dean and Davis in particular, though, that was enough to win this time around, and the defence has been a key part of why the Ticats are currently leading the East; while their 26.2 points allowed per game are midrange, they've allowed a league-low 326.3 offensive yards per game. Another defensive duo that's been great this year is...

9. Solomon Elimimian and Adam Bighill. The B.C. linebacking tandem has been an absolute wrecking crew this season, recording 76 and 72 defensive tackles respectively. That's second and third in the league respectively (behind only Montreal's Bear Woods, who has 89). Elimimian also has five sacks and a pick, while Bighill has two sacks and a pick. They're a big part of why the Lions have allowed a league-low 24 touchdowns this season, a league-low 201 first downs, and just 329.8 offensive yards per game (second-best in the league). The only challenge may be when it comes to awards voting; Elimimian won the league's Most Outstanding Defensive Player in 2014 and Bighill won it last year, but they could wind up splitting the vote a bit this year. Another defensive player who's having an awesome season is...

10. Maurice Leggett. The Winnipeg linebacker has a league-high six interceptions this year, and he's also recorded three defensive touchdowns, a sack, a forced fumble and 29 tackles. He may get some buzz for Most Outstanding Defensive Player as well. Interestingly enough, CFL.ca lists Leggett as a defensive back; by that reckoning, he could be only the second DB to win (after Jovon Johnson, who also won as a Bomber in 2011) that award. However, the Bombers' depth charts have Leggett usually lining up in the linebacking corps, which seems more accurate. Regardless of how you classify him, he's been a big part of the Bombers' defensive success, and that (which has led to their +25 turnover ratio) has been a huge part of their seven-game winning streak. They've allowed just 22.3 points per game this year, second-best in the league. One area where they're weaker, though, is in...

11. Touchdown drive percentage. This is a fascinating little number included in the CFL's weekly league stats package, and it has a lot of relevance to teams' success. The top two teams here are Calgary and B.C., who finish 22 per cent and 19 per cent of their drives with touchdowns respectively, and they're also the top two teams in the CFL standings. 8-4 Winnipeg is way down in this stat, though, tying with 3-9 Montreal for second-last at 13 per cent. (2-10 Saskatchewan is the worst in the league at just 10 per cent). The Bombers have been able to survive that because they play great defence, they put together a decent amount of moderate drives (they have the fewest two-and-outs in the CFL at 48), and they kick a lot of field goals (Justin Medlock leads the CFL with 41 made field goals, and has a pretty solid 85.4 per cent success rate). Still, the low touchdown numbers the Bombers have raise questions about if their success is sustainable, as does their turnover ratio (as that isn't always easy to maintain at a high level). It will be interesting to see how they do in this week's clash with the Stampeders, who have produced so many more touchdowns (41 to 27). Another stat that provides some interesting insight is...

12. Penalties. Why are the Ottawa Redblacks just 5-5-1? Well, penalties have played a big role. The Redblacks have been called for a league-high 128 accepted penalties (their 140 total penalties, including declined calls, is third-worst, but only by two). The Ottawa defence has been particularly problematic there, accounting for 56 of those calls; the second-worst defence from this standpoint is Saskatchewan, with 49. They've taken big penalties, too, giving up a league-high 1,267 yards in penalties. Head coach Rick Campbell might need to instill some more discipline in his squad if he wants to get back to the Grey Cup. Ottawa hosts Toronto Friday night, and that's a big clash in terms of the playoff picture, both in the East and in terms of a potential crossover. We'll see if the Redblacks can work on limiting the flags thrown against them there.

Thanks for reading 12 Audibles! Stay tuned to 55-Yard Line for CFL coverage all week long, and come back here next week for the next installment of this column. You can also contact me with feedback on Twitter or via e-mail. Enjoy the games this week!