Playoff Primer: Three-way West tie for second is in play, East fight down to two

With two weeks left in the CFL season, we now know which teams will be in the playoffs. There's still a lot to be decided in terms of who finishes where and where they play, though, so to break it all down, let's bring back our annual Playoff Primer series, looking at the battles that remain in the West and the East.

Second place in the West: While 15-1-1 Calgary has clinched the West Division title, the rest of the division's playoff spots remain very much in flux. 10-6 Winnipeg, 10-6 B.C. and 8-8 Edmonton can all still finish anywhere from second to fourth, and as they don't play each other for the rest of the season, a three-way tie at 10-8 is possible. If that happens, we get to a really interesting part of the CFL tiebreaking procedures. Those teams would all have won the same amount of games, and when it comes to games against each other (the next tiebreaker), Edmonton and Winnipeg are both 3-2, with B.C. 1-3 following their 32-25 win over the Eskimos Saturday. That eliminates B.C., so the tiebreaker returns to Step A, and Edmonton edges Winnipeg thanks to their 2-1 head-to-head record, so the Eskimos would be second and host the Bombers, while the Lions would cross to the East.

Curiously enough, though, things would be very different if the CFL tiebreakers didn't eliminate one team if two are still tied. If all three teams were left in and the tiebreaker proceeded, that would move us on to who has the higher net point aggregate (points for minus points against) in games against the other tied clubs. Here are the results from games between these teams this season:

Edmonton 20, Winnipeg 16

Winnipeg 30, Edmonton 23

Edmonton 27, B.C. 23

Edmonton 40, Winnipeg 26

Winnipeg 37, B.C. 35

Winnipeg 35, B.C. 32

B.C. 32, Edmonton 25

That gives Winnipeg 144 points for and 150 against, so a differential of -6, Edmonton 135 points for and 127 against, so a differential of +8, and B.C. 122 for and 124 against, so -2. Under those rules, it would be the Eskimos still in second, but the Lions in third and the Bombers in fourth. Of course, the existing setup is probably better; it means that this is determined by head to head record rather than points, which is generally a more fair way to resolve things and doesn't reward blowouts. Points can matter, though, and they'll break any Edmonton-B.C. tie in favour of the Lions (because they beat the Eskimos by seven and only lost by four), so teams should always go for as many points as they can when they have the opportunity.

Anyway, returning to what the rules actually are; Winnipeg will hold any tiebreaker over B.C. thanks to their 2-0 head-to-head record, so if the Bombers win their last two (both against Ottawa), they're assured of second place. They also get second if they win or tie one and B.C. does the same or worse, and they can only finish fourth and crossover if they lose their last two and Edmonton wins out (giving the Eskimos third by virtue of head-to-head tiebreaker) and B.C. gets at least a tie in their last two (at Saskatchewan, hosting Saskatchewan) to break that three-way logjam, which rewards the Bombers ahead of the Lions.

Meanwhile, if the Eskimos lose or tie one of their last two (at Hamilton, hosting Toronto), or if Winnipeg gets a point in one of their last two, they're definitely in fourth and crossing over. That may not be such a bad thing, as 7-8-1 Ottawa and 7-9 Hamilton look less formidable than 15-1-1 Calgary and whoever finishes second in the West. All three west teams still have that crossover opportunity, though: Edmonton gets it if they win less than two games, B.C. gets it if it's a three-way tie, Winnipeg gets it if they lose out, Edmonton wins out, and B.C. records at least one win or tie. This again brings up why the CFL should adapt its rules (point #9 here) to give at least the third-place team (and potentially the second-place team too) the opportunity to pick if they want to cross over or not, as there's a very real argument here that finishing in fourth is the best outcome for any of these three teams.

First place in the East: The East picture has clarified with the elimination of Montreal and Toronto this week (Toronto with a loss to Calgary, Montreal with Hamilton's win), but there's still a fight for first place between Ottawa and Hamilton. This could be a crucial battle as well, as the winner gets a first-round bye, a week of rest, and the privilege of hosting the East Final, while the loser has to play a tough game against whoever crosses over from the West. Hamilton's 39-36 double overtime win over Ottawa Friday helped keep them in contention here, but they still have an uphill battle; if the Redblacks collect one more point then them over the final two games, the Ticats are second. Ottawa does face a tougher schedule, though, playing a home and home against 10-6 Winnipeg, while Hamilton hosts 8-8 Edmonton and then finishes the schedule with 5-12 Toronto. It's quite conceivable that the Ticats could win both of those and the Redblacks could only get a split with the Bombers, and that would put Hamilton in second.

And remember what we were saying about points mattering? Ottawa only beat Hamilton by one point last week thanks to taking a knee at the end instead of going for a touchdown, so the Ticats hold the points tiebreaker if these teams wind up even. That would require either a Hamilton tie and a loss with two Ottawa losses or a Hamilton win and a tie with an Ottawa win and an Ottawa loss, and it's not particularly likely (the Stampeders-Redblacks tie earlier this year was the first in the CFL since 2009), but if it does happen, that decision to kneel may come back to haunt Ottawa.