Playoff Primer: Evaluating the three remaining contenders, others' positioning

Five of the CFL's six playoff spots have been clinched, but there's still plenty of intrigue heading into the final three weeks of the season. There are three teams in contention for the final berth, and the five teams who have already clinched have positioning battles still to fight. Here's a look at the key CFL playoff races.

Third place in the West:

Contenders: 5-10 B.C., 5-11 Winnipeg, 5-10 Montreal (via crossover)

While this is the only playoff berth left open, the race for it should still be dramatic. That's particularly true thanks to Winnipeg's Oct. 10 win over B.C, which kept the Bombers even with the Lions; if that game had turned out differently, B.C. would have a much stronger claim to this berth. As it stands, all three teams have a good shot; Winnipeg has one less game to play, but they've won the season-series tiebreaker against B.C. (and Montreal needs to finish ahead of both to pull off the first East-to-West crossover in CFL history), so it would be the Bombers in the playoffs if the season ended today. (Interestingly, that result would end two substantial streaks: B.C. has made the playoffs for the last 18 years, while Montreal has made them for the last 19.)

All three teams have struggled this year, starting a combined 11 quarterbacks (by comparison, the five teams that have clinched have collectively started seven pivots), but each has a case as the best from this group. For the Alouettes, it's about their defence; they've allowed just 330 points this season, fourth-best in the league (and well ahead of B.C.'s 420 and Winnipeg's 454). The issue has been their league-worst offence (just 308 points), but that still gives them a -22 point differential, well ahead of the Lions' -57 and the Bombers' -132. They also may hope that their offence improves with new acquisition Kevin Glenn at quarterback; he struggled in his debut, but may get better now he's had time to familiarize himself with Montreal's playbook and personnel. For the Lions, the case is about their ceiling; there have been plenty of moments this season when they've dazzled, but the issue has been maintaining that consistently. Rookie quarterback Jon Jennings is still finding his footing, but he's been spectacular at times. For the Bombers, the case is about how much better they've played over the last month; they're 1-3, but with a one-point loss to Edmonton, a two-point loss to Calgary and a three-point loss to Ottawa.

How do the remaining schedules look? B.C. hosts 10-5 Hamilton Friday night (a tough task, but the Ticats haven't been as dominant since losing Zach Collaros, and East teams do sometimes struggle in late west coast games), then plays on the road against 9-6 Toronto Oct. 30 (also not easy, but that game may be moved out of the Rogers Centre depending on what happens with the Blue Jays), then hosts 12-4 Calgary in their season finale Sept. 7 (also not easy, but the Stamps have taken their foot off the pedal once playoff positioning is decided in the past). Winnipeg hosts 9-6 Ottawa Saturday, has a bye, than finishes against Toronto Nov. 6. Montreal plays Toronto in Hamilton Friday, then plays in Edmonton Nov. 1 against the 12-4 Eskimos, then finishes by hosting 2-13 Saskatchewan Nov. 7. The Alouettes' schedule may be the easiest, as they get the Roughriders and a definite neutral-site game against the Argonauts (B.C. and Winnipeg may have to play Toronto at home), but they also have the highest hurdle to clear, needing to finish ahead of both West teams. It's going to be interesting to see who comes out on top and what kind of a record they finish with, as the path to the end isn't easy for any of these teams. From this corner, B.C. may be the most likely at this point given their talent and their remaining games, but any of those teams could make it in.

First place in the West: 

Contenders: 12-4 Edmonton, 12-4 Calgary

This is also an interesting race, as these have been the league's most dominant teams this season. Taking first place, the critical accompanying first-round bye, and the right to host the West Final can make a big difference in postseason success, so this will matter substantially. The Eskimos are the hotter team (they've won their last six, including two against Calgary), and they hold the season-series tiebreaker, but the Stampeders can't be counted out yet either. Both teams have similar point differentials (+96 for Edmonton, +88 for Calgary), but have gotten there in different ways; the Eskimos depend on their defence (tied with Hamilton for a league-low 295 points allowed thus far), while the Stampeders have a more effective offence (408 points so far, second only to Hamilton). Both are relatively strong all-around, though. Both also have relatively easy remaining schedules; Edmonton plays at 2-13 Saskatchewan Saturday, then hosts 5-10 Montreal next week before a final-week bye, while Calgary's off this week, hosts Saskatchewan next week and finishes against the 5-10 B.C. Lions. The Eskimos are in control here thanks to that tiebreaker, but if they slip up in either of their remaining games, the Stampeders could be set to take advantage. Still, the safe money is on Edmonton finishing first.

First place in the East:

Contenders: 10-5 Hamilton, 9-6 Toronto, 9-6 Ottawa

This one's wide-open, and it has implications both for whoever wins and whoever winds up third (and thus has to go on the road in the first round). Hamilton's been the strongest of these teams this season (a +188 point differential, compared to Ottawa's -19 and Toronto's -37), but has faltered a bit since losing Collaros, opening the door for others. The really interesting thing here is that the Tiger-Cats and Redblacks play back-to-back games in the final two weeks, which may decide this race. Hamilton's in the lead and controls the tiebreaker against Toronto, but if they can't pull off a win in B.C. Friday, that could open the door for the Redblacks and/or Argos to take advantage. Ottawa plays in Winnipeg Saturday before the back-to-back with Hamilton, while Toronto plays in Hamilton against Montreal Friday, hosts B.C. October 30, and then hosts Winnipeg Nov. 6. The Argos have the most favourable schedule, and they have the tiebreaker over Ottawa, but being moved thanks to the Jays may hurt them. This could go any which way, but the Ticats are in the strongest position right now.