12 Audibles: Trevor Harris' night shows the limitations of quarterback wins

Welcome to another week of 12 Audibles, our regular look at storylines from around the CFL. This time around, we start with a look at Ottawa Redblacks' quarterback Trevor Harris, who threw for 485 yards and still lost Saturday night.

1. The problems with quarterback wins. We've had this discussion before, but it's worth bringing it up again in light of Trevor Harris' superb performance in the Redblacks' loss to the Lions. Harris completed 32 of 45 passing attempts (71.1 per cent) for 485 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. That's not necessarily better than B.C. counterpart Jonathon Jennings (20 of 25 completions, 80 per cent, 348 yards and three touchdowns), but it's definitely comparable.

The differences in the Lions' 40-33 win here were mostly not about Harris; Ottawa's defence couldn't stop Jennings, B.C. got better production on the ground (Anthony Allen rushed for 82 yards on 12 carries, 6.8 yards per carry, while Ottawa's Mossis Madu (48 yards on 11 carries, 4.4 yards per carry) and benefited from turnovers (in addition to that interception, the Redblacks had two fumbles). Like Matt Nichols two weeks ago, Harris did plenty to give his team an opportunity to win this game, especially when you throw in the tough defence he was playing. Ottawa's loss here had much more to do with their defence's issues, their weaker run game, and ther fumbles than it did with any shortfall from Harris.

By contrast, look at Ottawa's 29-12 win over Toronto last week. Harris was decent in that one, completing 25 of 35 passes (71.4 per cent) for 274 yards, but that's not as impressive as a showing as what he put up against the Lions. The main difference is that the Redblacks' defence played much better (and also was facing less-dangerous quarterbacks and a less-dangerous offence overall), and that gave them a blowout win instead of a close loss. Thus, criticisms of Ottawa after this week shouldn't be particularly directed at Harris. A quarterback who does deserve more criticism is...

2. Drew Willy. The Argos gave Willy his first start in double blue Sunday, and it didn't go well at all. They lost 38-11 to Montreal, and passing production was part of the reason why. Willy completed 24 of 35 passes (68.6 per cent) for 226 yards with an interception; that's a good completion percentage, but the yards and lack of touchdowns are definitely underwhelming. Watching that game, too, Willy looked out of his depth; there were plenty of inaccurate throws and a lot of two-and-outs. Despite that, TSN"s Matthew Scianitti reported Monday night that the team plans to stick with Willy as their starter for the rest of the season. Maybe Willy will improve with more time to learn the Argos' offence, maybe he won't. Another challenge he may face is...

3. Toronto's new receivers. After cutting receivers Vidal Hazelton, Tori Gurley, Kevin Elliott and Phil Bates Monday, the Argos announced Tuesday that part of the reason why was a desire to start young Canadians Llevi Noel and Brian Jones. Here's what Toronto head coach Scott Milanovich said about them:

It will certainly be interesting to see how those guys do with more prominent roles and more reps, and giving them more playing time may be good for the Argos down the road. However, it seems hard to imagine that these rookies will immediately produce at the levels we have previously seen from Hazelton, Gurley and Elliott. and that may add to Willy's challenges.

As per cutting those top three receivers (Bates hadn't played much), it may take a while to see if it was the right move or not. All three showed great talent last year, finishing 1-2-3 on the team in receiving yards, and they were still producing pretty well in less playing time this season. There have been plenty of questions raised about their attitudes and their sideline behaviour, though, and that may add to the case for the Argos parting ways with them (and explain why they weren't able to trade them). If Noel and Jones can step up and replace their production as Milanovich hopes, this may work out great; having a couple of top Canadian receivers is a highly-desirable situation. If not, though, and if these guys go on to success elsewhere, this may be remembered as a critical error by the Argos. Two places they might wind up are...

4. Winnipeg and Hamilton. The Blue Bombers and Tiger-Cats would seem to be logical landing spots for one or more of these receivers. After a winning streak of seven straight games, Winnipeg has lost their last two, and they've battled plenty of receiver injuries this year. The Ticats have also lost their last two games, and they're facing receiver attrition too, especially with Tuesday's news that Chad Owens is now out for the year. According to TSN's Gary Lawless, the Bombers and the Ticats are two teams looking at these guys:

It will be interesting to see if either team brings any of these receivers in. They have obvious talent, but the way they left Toronto doesn't necessarily speak well for them. Still, they might be worth a gamble, especially given what they were able to do for the Argonauts last year. The Ticats have a bye this week, so that could be the perfect time for them to look into acquiring some new receivers. Meanwhile, the Bombers are getting set to face...

5. The B.C. Lions. The Lions are in an interesting place in the standings. They're 9-4 with five games left and in second place, but it's going to be hard for them to catch 12-1-1 Calgary for first. In fact, a single Stampeders' win or a loss or tie by B.C. would clinch first place for Calgary. The Lions are very much in a fight to hang on to second and its corresponding home playoff game, though, and they play their main opponent there (the 8-6 Blue Bombers) this week in Winnipeg, then again next week at home. A split of those games would put B.C. at 10-5 and Winnipeg at 9-7, with the tiebreaker determined by point differential, the Lions still to play Edmonton and Saskatchewan (twice) and the Bombers to play Ottawa twice. If B.C. wins both games against the Bombers, they clinch second against Winnipeg (they could still lose it to Edmonton if the 7-7 Eskimos win out, as they'd hold the tiebreaker). If B.C. splits the Winnipeg series, they're likely second, but the Bombers would still have a chance. If the Bombers win both of these games, though, then they're 10-6 with control of the tiebreaker and B.C. is 9-6, making it likely that Winnipeg would take that second slot. A key player to watch in this Bombers-Lions clash may be...

6. Solomon Elimimian. The CFL's most outstanding defensive player in 2014 is having an incredible season again, leading the league with 100 defensive tackles and also posting six sacks, an interception and a forced fumble. While the B.C. defence as a whole wasn't as good as normal in their aforementioned 40-33 win over Ottawa this week, Elimimian was still a force, posting a remarkable 13 tackles. At this point, he seems likely to be a favourite for that most outstanding defensive player award again, as long as he can win the race for the team nomination against...

7. Adam Bighill. Bighill is third in the league with 89 defensive tackles of his own, which is remarkable, and shows just how important those two linebackers are to the Lions' defence. Both Elimimian and Bighill fly around and make plays, and they've been critical to B.C.'s success this season. Bighill's tackle numbers aren't quite as good as Elimimian's, and his three sacks and an interception aren't quite as impressive as what Elimimian has done, so he likely won't get the team nomination, but he's still playing at or very close to that award-winning level he showed last year too. It would not be surprising to see these guys selected as two of the three league all-stars at linebacker, and it's special to see them on the same team. Another dynamic duo is...

8. Adarius Bowman and Derel Walker. Just as a tackle by one defender means a missed opportunity for a teammate, a target or a reception for one receiver means a missed opportunity for another one. That's why it's so unusual to see teammates first and second league-wide in total receiving yards, but that's what the Eskimos' Bowman and Walker have pulled off this year. They're blowing away the field, too; Bowman has 1,497 yards on 103 receptions (on 145 targets), while Walker has 1,368 yards on 92 receptions (on 128 targets), while the next-closest is Ottawa's Chris Williams with 1,206 yards on 74 catches (on 114 targets). Both Bowman and Walker have eight touchdowns, too, tied for second in the CFL with B.C.'s Emmanuel Arceneaux and just behind Williams' nine.

Neither receiver is on a pace to hit the magical 2,000 yard mark (which only three CFL players have ever reached) at the moment, but it's not out of the question for Bowman, and there's an excellent chance that both of these guys could wind up in the top 10 CFL receiving seasons of all time. The current 10th-place season is the 1,764 yards Allen Pitts put up for Calgary in 1991, and the ninth-place one is the 1,777 Jamel Richardson posted for Montreal in 2011. If Walker can average 100 yards a game (which he's just under right now) for the Eskimos' final four games, he'd slide by Pitts into 10th, while Bowman would only need to average 70 yards a game to beat Richardson for ninth. No two teammates have posted a top-10 season in the same year, and those top-10 seasons only include two from the same year, Terry Greer (Toronto) and Brian Kelly (Edmonton) in 1983. Thus, Bowman and Walker could make some history. Their team is also rounding into form at a great time; the Eskimos are 7-7, in playoff position thanks to the crossover, just one game back of 8-6 Winnipeg for third and just two games back of 9-4 B.C. for second. However, it's worth asking...

9. Does winning help Edmonton? Whenever there's a year like this where one division's clearly stronger than the other, it raises questions about the playoff system. The West is a combined 39-28-1 right now (a winning percentage of .573), and that's including currently non-playoff Saskatchewan; if you remove the 3-10 Riders, the West is 36-18-1, .655. The East is 21-32-1, .389. That leads to the calls we regularly see to abolish the divisions and just have a "best six teams" playoff system, but that idea's problematic from this corner given how it would reduce the importance of rivalries, reduce the idea of the Grey Cup as a national competition, and ignore the history of how these divisions (originally two separate leagues) came together. The crossover rule is generally a nice compromise to maintain the divisions while still providing a postseason chance for the fourth-best team in a strong division. However, it gets into problematic territory when you consider incentives.

Ideally, winning should always be the best outcome for a team. This isn't always the case in real life in most sports (especially when it comes to tanking for draft picks), but CFL teams usually have incentive to win. That's not true when it comes to the crossover, though, especially when you're talking about the third and fourth-place teams in a division. Both teams have to win two road games to get to the Grey Cup, but the fourth-place team can actually get an easier schedule in terms of winning percentage. If the playoffs started today, 8-6 Winnipeg would play at 9-4 B.C., and then if they won, they'd head to Calgary to face the 12-1-1 Stampeders, opponents with a combined winning percentage of .769. Meanwhile, 7-7 Edmonton would face 6-8 Hamilton, and then if they won, they'd play 6-6-1 Ottawa, opponents with a combined winning percentage of .444. This is why it might make sense for the Eskimos not to pass the Bombers in the standings, but it raises the question of...

10. How to fix those incentives. From this corner, the solution is simple, and it's one espoused here back in 2012 (when it was also to the Eskimos' advantage to cross over; they wound up doing so and losing in the first round to the eventual Grey Cup champion Toronto Argonauts, but crossing over was absolutely the right move from a winning percentage standpoint, letting 7-11 Edmonton face 9-9 Toronto and 11-7 Montreal while 8-10 Saskatchewan drew 12-6 Calgary and 13-5 B.C. Rob Pettapiece calculated back then that the Eskimos' odds of winning the Grey Cup tripled if they headed to the East instead of staying in the West). The third-place team in a division with a crossover should be able to choose whether to take the crossover berth (leaving the fourth-place team to stay in the division) or decline it (leaving the fourth-place team to cross over). That's a simple fix, one that maintains the divisions and doesn't change the playoff structure at all, and it incentivizes finishing third over finishing fourth, which in turn incentivizes always playing to win.

Of course, we're unlikely to see CFL teams tank even if it is in their best interest, given the prevalence of the play-to-win mentality amongst players and coaches. Still, the problematic incentives here are an issue the CFL should look at. It's ridiculous that the reward for finishing fourth is better than the reward for finishing third, and it has the potential to undermine the league's competitive integrity. The solution of offering the third-place team a choice is a simple one, and one that could add extra drama to the playoff positioning battle, as third place would now be clearly better than fourth and worth fighting for. As per Edmonton, we'll see how much they focus on winning on...

11. Thanksgiving Day. It's awesome to see a Thanksgiving Monday doubleheader, and these matchups are both intriguing. Things start with Edmonton at Montreal at 1 p.m. Eastern, and then Toronto hosts Calgary at 4 p.m. Eastern. The 4-9 Alouettes seem like substantial underdogs against the 7-7 Eskimos, but they got an impressive win this past week over the Argos, and look to be making some improvements (especially offensively) under new head coach Jacques Chapdelaine. They're not quite out of the playoff picture yet, either, so a win could mean a lot to them. Meanwhile, the 5-9 Argos are in tough against the 12-1-1 Stampeders, especially considering their 2-5 home record, but they have desperation on their side; they're in a fight for their playoff lives, they're still trying to establish Willy as a starter, and they'll be eager to show that releasing those receivers was the right move. By contrast, Calgary doesn't have a ton to play for. We'll see how these games turn out, but close contests could happen given the differences in motivation. Another interesting motivation contrast is...

12. Riders-Redblacks. The 6-6-1 Redblacks are hosting the 3-10 Riders Friday, and there's a lot more on the line for them. Ottawa's still in first in the East right now, and keeping control of that first-place bye could be very important for them. However, don't write this off as an automatic win. Saskatchewan has won two games in a row and is starting to show some promise, and they have a few intriguing recent additions, including Willie Jefferson and Henoc Muamba. Ottawa hasn't been able to consistently play well lately, either, and their defence was rather eaten up by B.C. last week. The Riders are still theoretically in playoff contention (although getting there's highly unlikely for them), and their players will be playing for jobs next year at the very least, so there's more motivation than you'd think. The Redblacks should be able to take this one, especially if they want to be taken seriously as playoff contenders, but Saskatchewan may not go down without a fight.

Thanks for reading 12 Audibles! Stay tuned to 55-Yard Line for CFL coverage all week long, and come back here next week for the next installment of this column. You can also contact me with feedback on Twitter or via e-mail. Enjoy the games this week!