Stuart Skinner Needs To Turn Things Around -- And Quick

This morning, I saw a stat that blew my mind.

TSN's Travis Yost tweeted out a table showing where every NHL team stands statistically roughly 20% of the way through the season. What stands out about the Edmonton Oilers?

Somehow, the Oilers have the league's best penalty kill by xGA, yet sit dead last in actual goals allowed (and in regular PK%, at just 61%). When you're allowing that many goals above expected, there's only one culprit: goaltending.

This brings us to Stuart Skinner. It's no secret that he's had a difficult start to the season. His .881 all-situations save percentage is seventh-lowest among goalies with at least five starts, and his -7.6 goals saved above expected is third-worst in the league.

His worst work has come on the penalty kill, where his save percentage is just .750 and he's allowed 5.6 goals above expected.

Let's not let Calvin Pickard off the hook here, either. While he's been better than Skinner at even strength, his penalty kill numbers are somehow even worse. He's allowed 3.4 goals above expected in just six games, and his save percentage on the PK is an unfathomably bad .563.

But Skinner is the team's anointed starter, the man on whom the Oilers have pinned their hopes. You can handle a struggling backup, but when your starting goalie is running an .881 save percentage you've got some real problems.

Those problems have been exacerbated by the Oilers' poor shooting luck, which gave them no room for error earlier in the season. When the team is scoring like they have the past two games, a lot of poor goaltending can be forgiven. Maybe not to this degree, but the Oilers don't need Skinner to be a Vezina candidate.

There is one source of hope, however: the Oilers have seen this from Skinner before. Exactly one year ago today, Skinner's save percentage was .876 and he had allowed 6.9 goals above average (per Hockey Reference). The Oilers had just fired head coach Jay Woodcroft, and Skinner's play was one of the main reasons.

Of course, Skinner then turned things around, posting a .911 save percentage and saving 10 goals above average from November 14th through the end of the season. Not only was he solid, he was a workhorse, making more starts than all but four goalies in that time.

That's the Stuart Skinner the Oilers need. They had better hope he's still somewhere in there, and that he can find that version of himself soon because they can't afford to keep bleeding goals at this rate.

All stats except Goals Saved Above Average courtesy of MoneyPuck.

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