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Spread Options: Dr. Saturday's Week 12 picks against the spread

Nick Bromberg
·College football and motorsports writer

We can never stay over .500 for very long. A 5-5 Week 11 makes our record 45-61-4. Time to get rolling if we want to be above .500 for the season.

Memphis (-7.5) at Cincinnati, 8 p.m. ET FRIDAY: We’re going to keep picking against Cincinnati for the rest of the season at this rate. The Bearcats lost 24-3 to UCF last week and carry a three-game losing streak into Friday’s game. The Tigers, meanwhile, are bowl eligible at 6-4 and need the win at Cincy to guarantee a winning season with Houston looming in the season’s final week.

UTSA (+27.5) at Texas A&M, Noon ET: This is far from an upset pick, but we’re having a hard time picking Texas A&M to cover nearly four touchdowns on Saturday. The Aggies should get a relatively easy win, but after losses to Mississippi State and Ole Miss, A&M is in the midst of a swoon. Perhaps the Roadrunners will be cathartic. But we’re not betting on it.

Oklahoma State (+5.5) at TCU, Noon ET: An 8-2 team getting over 5 points on the road? Yes please. A win for the Cowboys means next week’s game vs. Oklahoma is for the Big 12 championship. TCU is out of the conference race and simply playing for bowl eligibility. Oklahoma State needs to figure out how to run on a TCU defense that gives up almost 150 yards rushing a game.

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Miami (-3) at North Carolina State, 12:30 p.m. ET: The Wolfpack snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over Syracuse in Week 11. A win over the Hurricanes not only makes NC State bowl-eligible, but also gives the Wolfpack a signature win after close losses to Clemson and Florida State. We’re not so sure it’ll happen. Miami has bounced back nicely after a four-game losing streak of its own and an 8-4 season is very possible.

Florida at LSU (UNDER 39), 1 p.m. ET: The Tigers are favored by 15, but there’s no way we can take that number given how good Florida’s defense is. We’re going with the under because of how bad Florida’s offense is, however. LSU should take care of business, but this game wouldn’t surprise us if it’s a lesser sequel of Alabama’s 10-0 win at Baton Rouge two weeks ago. 20-7 LSU sounds about right.

Georgia Southern (-2.5) at Georgia State, 2 p.m. ET: Georgia State made a coaching change after last week and Georgia Southern needs to finish the season 2-0 for a bowl game. We’re going with the road team. Georgia State is No. 98 in the country in rush defense and allows over 4.3 yards a carry. Georgia Southern averages just over 4.3 yards a carry itself.

San Diego State at Wyoming (OVER 58), 3:30 p.m. ET: This game will go a long way to determining who meets in the MWC title game. If SDSU wins, the path is paved for a matchup between the Aztecs and Boise State. If Wyoming wins, the Cowboys will get a rematch with the Aztecs in two weeks. Wyoming gave up 66 to UNLV (in 3 OT) last week and SDSU will be giving the ball to Donnel Pumphrey early and often. If Pumphrey has a big game, expect to see him mentioned far and wide (and not just here at Dr. Saturday) as a non-Lamar Jackson Heisman candidate.

Virginia Tech (PK) at Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m. ET: If Virginia Tech was playing a team with Notre Dame’s credentials not named Notre Dame, is this game a pick-em? We certainly don’t think so. The Hokies have struggled against the run the past two weeks but Notre Dame may not be able to capitalize on that weakness. This could also be a chance for VT QB Jerod Evans to get back on track too.

Washington State at Colorado (OVER 61), 3:30 p.m. ET: Colorado needs this game to win the Pac-12 South while Washington State needs this (and an Apple Cup win) to win the North outright barring an unexpected Washington loss this week. This game won’t be a Pac-12 After Dark-style shootout, however. Colorado’s defense gives up just 4.6 yards per play while Washington State’s is much improved (5.5) from 2015 (6.2). 34-30 sounds right.

Arkansas (+2) at Mississippi State, 7 p.m. ET: Here’s another game featuring a team scrapping to get to a bowl. Mississippi State can only go bowling with wins over the Razorbacks and Ole Miss. It’s doable, but far from a guarantee. This game is a measuring stick for the Hogs’ 2016 season too; after blowout losses to Alabama, Auburn and LSU, Arkansas is much closer to the bottom of the SEC West than the middle if it loses to MSU.

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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!