Scouting Notebook: Move Murray?

Let’s start the Scouting Notebook this week with a look at DeMarco Murray’s start and the idea that he’s a sell high.

Murray is on pace for over 400 carries and over 2,000 yards and that’s begging for regression, we know. However, he’s in a very unusual situation compared to the other 2,000-yard runners (and remember, these seasons did happen and paces were sustained despite regression odds). Unlike all these other backs, Murray isn’t even the most feared weapon on his team. He’s the slow death guy. The quick death player who has to be accounted for first and schemed for on every play is Dez Bryant. So no one is going to load up their defenses to stop Murray short of Dallas being in a kill-the-clock situation.

But Murray is as skilled as the greatest backs ever and like so many of them can beat you in a multitude of ways, meaning chunk plays, home runs and grinding runs. He’s also blessed with the best offensive line in football. So he’s as good a candidate as there ever was to remain the most valuable player in our game in the back half of an epic start.

My zeroRB strategy was focused on the risk of running back injury and if you told me you could get Demaryius Thomas for Murray, I may do that but this is literally a fantasy trade. What would the point be for either team? You could get two top players for Murray but I make it a standard practice to avoid trading the best player in fantasy football where waiver wire replacement tends to be pretty high. This can be a viable “shake it up” strategy but the Murray teams are mostly rocking 2014 and shouldn’t be thinking depth while they ride the stars (star?) and scrubs gravy train.

Someone pitched Dez and Gio Bernard for Murray. I’d respectfully decline. Their argument was worrying about injury related to the 400-carry pace. There is no evidence that additional carries create an additional injury risk. In other words, increasing a back’s carries 50 percent increases his injury risk 50 percent NOT more than 50 percent. One of the best football analytics people out there, Brian Burke, explicitly said the same thing to me on Twitter (@michaelsalfino) last week. So trading out of Murray for this reason is pointless because any back you get to replace him, irrespective of his year-to-date carries, has the same injury risk on each of his carries going forward as Murray does. Disagree in the comments if you wish and I will respond in Splitsville on Thursday.

There is a risk of declining performance due to fatigue with Murray but, as I noted, he has a much easier set up than every other 2,000-yard back with not just Bryant but one of the most efficient quarterbacks in history, too. And, as the Chiefs did with Jamaal Charles last year, the Cowboys could dial back the volume at any time and get a boost in efficiency that may neutralize the loss of some touches.

In other Week 7 news, we have a bevy of new running backs on the waiver wire in most leagues this week: Tre Mason, Denard Robinson and a couple of Bills backs in Anthony Dixon and probably Bryce Brown. That’s how I’d stack them. But I’d take Darren McFadden over them all, if he’s also available. Swing for the fences with Mason first and then Brown and Robinson. Remember, there are going to be backs every week and they’ll get easier to acquire as teams drop out of contention and run out of FAAB.

While Brown has been inactive all year, that’s probably because he doesn’t play special teams. I expect Brown to be the Bills leading ball carrier next week and for at least the next month before Fred Jackson comes back from his groin injury (if he comes back). CJ Spiller (collarbone) is done for the year and probably done in Buffalo.

Here’s a quick take on players I’ve been asked about the most with actionable advice on each:

Alshon Jeffery is a hold. He’s been a disappointment but maybe Jay Cutler comes back with a vengeance after the ugly locker room recriminations on Sunday. Cutler is Jeff George; actually, he hasn’t even had a season yet as good as George’s best three (adjusting passer rating for era). But like George, he’s good enough to generate fantasy production for his receivers.

Andre Holmes is a buy off the down week where he almost had a 50-yard catch. The Cardinals are a tough matchup. I’m thrilled if Holmes is my fourth receiver/flex going forward. And Derek Carr is the best of the rookie quarterbacks.

I’d hold Brian Quick. He worries me because he made a name for himself and now has to make the adjustment on the fly to added attention from defenses. This also requires more physical ability, which he seems to have, but is it too raw and can it be harnessed into production? These answers are currently unknowable.

I was almost buying into Jordan Cameron but he’s not remotely bettable because there is no target/catch floor. You can’t make a living at this position on big, downfield plays. He’s a sell if you can, but that window was open last week. Cameron needs Josh Gordon to come back. Many analysts felt that the loss of Gordon was a boost for Cameron and I thought it was a drag because defenses can stop a tight end (except Gronk) pretty easily when you give them nothing else to worry about.

Ben Tate is a buy, period. It was a down week and Jacksonville has been good against the run all year. Yeah, I know the Browns lost their center but they’ll adapt better.

Bishop Sankey? Well, I was sure wrong about him being able to generate big pays due to elite athleticism. But I only liked Sankey as a zeroRB so this is not a crippling mistake. I think it’s close to 50/50 that Sankey produces enough to be worth starting going forward. Remember, the crop is pretty thin at running back this year.

Odell Beckham is a sell for sure — in bold and flashing lights. I like that he plays big and is fast but he’s a rookie and thus not bettable and I bet right now someone would pay you a crazy, bankable price. I think you could get Michael Floyd for Beckham and that’s a steal. Any likely top 20 wide receiver going forward or top 12 back for Beckham is a deal I’d instantly accept.