Raptors free agency primer: VanVleet, Poeltl decisions loom large, potential targets

NBA free agency is just around the corner, with the moratorium period set to begin Friday, June 30 at 6:00 p.m. ET.

The Toronto Raptors aren’t normally big players during this time, but have a couple key decisions they’ll need to make with unrestricted free agents Fred VanVleet and Jakob Poeltl.

Those two big pieces of free agent business coupled with trade rumours continuing to swirl around Pascal Siakam has the Raptors facing an offseason with heightened importance, even if most of the rest of the league doesn’t seem all that enthused with this year’s crop of free agents who will be available.

There could be big changes on the horizon for the Raptors or the status quo, for the most part, could be upheld. The direction Toronto opts to go this offseason could have a massive ripple effect for how the team could look down the road, in both the immediate and long term.

Here’s a quick rundown on what the Raptors could be staring down as the clock ticks towards when teams can officially begin talking to players Friday evening.

What is the Raptors' cap situation?

Before diving into anything else, it’s important to have at least a basic understanding of Toronto’s cap situation as it enters free agency.

The league’s salary cap for the 2023-24 season is projected to come in at $136 million, with its luxury tax threshold expected to reach around $165 million. Of those two figures, the more important one to remember is the $165-million luxury tax threshold.

The NBA has a soft salary cap. So, unlike a league like the NHL which uses a hard cap, teams in the NBA can use exceptions that allow teams to sign players or make trades that exceed the cap under certain conditions – such as when a team owns a player’s Bird rights and can exceed the salary cap to re-sign that player.

Effectively, just about every team in the league operates above the salary cap. Where the true deterrent begins, however, is the luxury tax threshold. If that line is crossed it will make a team into a tax-paying team, where it pays a penalty for each dollar its team salary exceeds the tax threshold.

Given the Raptors’ in-between state at the moment, it wouldn’t make much sense for them to pay the luxury tax this coming season, meaning the number to keep an eye on in regards to their cap sheet is $165 million.

The Raptors entered the 2023 offseason with eight players fully under contract and about $93.5 million committed between them. After Gary Trent Jr. decided to exercise his $18.5-million player option for next season, that figure jumped to about $112.1 million, leaving Toronto something in the range of $53 million of wiggle room to try to retain both VanVleet and Poeltl – if that is something the Raptors want to do.

As mentioned off the top, the VanVleet and Poeltl situations are the linchpin bits of business the Raptors face, and considering this is a weaker free agency class and Toronto probably doesn’t want to be a tax-paying team, there’s a distinct possibility the Raptors could simply be out-priced should teams decide to overpay a little to entice the talents of the two Raptors free agents.

Potential free agent targets

The big names highlighting free agency this season are superstar talents (and sometimes headaches) James Harden and Kyrie Irving.

The Raptors won’t be in contention for either of these players because they don’t have the outright cap space to sign either of them, and Toronto’s never been much of a destination for A-list free agents to begin with.

Milwaukee Bucks stars Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez are also hitting free agency this offseason, but don’t hold your breath they will be on the move anywhere.

Looking around elsewhere, however, there are serviceable veterans to be had that could go a long way to helping a young Raptors team learn and develop under new coach Darko Rajakovic.

Here’s a few to keep in mind:

Fred VanVleet and Jakob Poeltl

In case it wasn’t already obvious, the two Raptors free agents are a big deal this offseason. Rumours have been floated that VanVleet will be seeking a contract in the neighbourhood of about $30 million a season, while Poeltl could command something in the range of $18-20 million per year.

With the tax line set at $165 million, the Raptors could conceivably bring back both players and still remain under the threshold. However, that wouldn’t leave much of any room to add a veteran if they were looking to do so.

And beyond the cap implications, both VanVleet and Poeltl are useful players. The Raptors went 15-10 in 25 games with Poeltl starting for them after they acquired him at the trade deadline, and VanVleet is a borderline All-Star point guard who carries important gravitas in the Raptors locker room.

Unless Toronto is looking to trade a core piece like Siakam or O.G. Anunoby this offseason and aim to begin anew, then the most logical outcome from free agency is that both VanVleet and Poeltl are re-signed by the Raptors.

Dillon Brooks

A homecoming for the Mississauga problem child would make for a great redemption story after he was metaphorically kicked to the curb by Memphis.

Guys who play on the edge like Brooks does can be extremely useful and help define a team’s identity. He won’t solve the Raptors’ shooting woes, but he would certainly establish a certain kind of attitude the Raptors simply haven’t had in a long time.

Reports indicate that Brooks will be seeking a deal with a starting salary higher than the full mid-level exception, so acquiring him would prove difficult, but the on-court fit looks like it could work.

Thomas Bryant

A floor-stretching big man who rebounds the ball well, Bryant could be a great foil to Poeltl coming off the bench at centre.

Though skilled offensively, he’s thus far proven to be a limited defender, but that can be mitigated by his sweet outside stroke.

Seth Curry

The Raptors need shooting and while rookie Gradey Dick comes with the promise he could provide that, it’s almost guaranteed that Curry would provide that.

A career 43.5% shooter from deep with nine seasons of experience under his belt, Curry would certainly help with spacing on the floor and would tick off the needed veteran box the Raptors should be looking for.

Cam Reddish

A 2019 top-10 draft pick, Reddish has seen his career stall since he first entered the league with the Hawks.

Since then, he’s already suited up for the Knicks and Blazers, and while he's flashes the three-level scoring and athleticism he displayed as a blue-chip prospect at Duke, he hasn’t been able to put it together yet.

Time looks to be running out on Reddish to establish himself as an NBA player, particularly with Portland not expected to offer him a qualifying offer when free agency hits, but the Raptors could look to take a flyer on him.

Still only 23 years old, Reddish could become something if put in the right environment. Perhaps some time with Toronto’s vaunted player development staff might do the trick.