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Race for 2017 draft’s QB1 begins in earnest at NFL scouting combine this week
Opinions are widely split on the 2017 NFL draft offerings at quarterback as we head into scouting combine week, and the event could create a little separation and clarity there.
First, here are the four quarterbacks — in any given order — who are sitting near the top right now based on conversations we’ve had with people around the NFL over the past few months.
Clemson’s Deshaun Watson is the household name coming off a national championship a year after his Tigers were runners-up. Can he be one of the first three picks in the draft? Or will he be destined to wait well into Round 1 to hear his name called?
After skipping the Senior Bowl, Watson plans to do nearly everything, including throw, at the combine. In years past, at least one quarterback punts on the throwing session, but it appears that every quarterback in Indy will take part.
North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky is a one-year wonder who could be the first QB off the board. Or second. Or possibly the third, although opinions are mostly solid overall. There are questions about him, of course, including physical ones. But Trubisky also could solidify his status with a big workout and some strong interviews in Indy.
Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer and Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes are next in line as fascinating athletes with rocket arms but questions of consistency. They’re both spread quarterbacks, too, which is a stigma they’ll have to overcome. (That said, some have noted that Kizer has fewer scheme-related concerns than Mahomes because of the more diverse, full-field reads Kizer was expected to make in Brian Kelly’s offense. Still, the last NFL quarterback Kelly developed was … Tony Pike, a sixth-round pick in 2010 who notched 12 career pass attempts in the league.)
For a supposedly down year for QBs, there are quite a few who will attract high attention. After the top four, all of whom could land in the first 40 picks, there’s the next tier: Cal’s Davis Webb, Pitt’s Nathan Peterman and perhaps Miami’s Brad Kaaya. Each of them will appeal to only a certain type of offense, however, with limited arm talent and downfield precision.
But can there be some movement at the combine? You might be surprised. By most accounts, it’s not a great group. However, as many as four quarterbacks could end up as first-round picks. As many as seven could be taken on the first two days of the draft, through the end of Round 3.
“I expect a few to slip in there at the end of [Day 2],” one college scouting director said over the weekend. “Did you see how many compensatory picks there are in the third round? Eleven. That’s more than we’ve ever had. And those picks can be traded now, which is a game-changer.
“So yeah, I could see a few come off late in the third just for that alone. That way, teams can feel better going to bed Friday night, not having to go into Saturday without their QB. I could see a little movement there [in] those last 10 picks or so.”
True, the QB portion of the event is overblown. Throwing in shorts to unfamiliar receivers vs. air defense can only tell you so much. However …
“You see mechanics up close,” a veteran quarterbacks coach told Shutdown Corner. “You see repetitive motion. You see the ball come out … does it shoot out of his hand? Does he flick it? How does he hit that back foot and release it? Is there a hitch?
“Those things are [evident in the throwing sessions], and you see it without pads, which actually helps me see the whole body go through that motion in sync. Or not in sync sometimes.”
There also are the 15-minute team-interview sessions, which can provide a clearer understanding of what a quarterback’s reads and responsibilities were. The QBs coach we spoke to says he’ll watch tape on a player prior to the combine and make notes: What was his pre-snap read on a good play/bad play? What adjustments were made or not made?
“The footwork and throwing motion, I can judge that on my own,” the coach said. “But there are times I need to know what he’s thinking on a certain play. You can’t know all that goes into some other team’s offense just by watching tape.”
Trubisky has a good amount to gain or lose this week, being a bit of a mystery still. If you love Watson coming in, chances are that won’t change much, short of a brilliant or disastrous workout. Mahomes might be the biggest wild card of the group, and he could see big gains or perhaps slide with the side-by-side comps.
But we also feel Kizer has a chance to see a bump in his stock. After routinely showing up in the top five picks in midseason mock drafts last fall, Kizer cooled down during a frustrating season in which the Irish finished out of bowl contention. And after quietly working on his craft behind the scenes the past several weeks, Kizer could be ready to reemerge as the possible QB1 in this class.
“He’s the one I want to sit down with most right now,” the QBs coach said. “Big, big-time ability. It’s just that consistency [that’s lacking]. But it’s all there.”
Back to Trubisky a moment. An NFL team recently said its scouts say that Trubisky will measure in below 6-foot-3, as low as 6-2 flat perhaps. Is that a big deal?
It might not matter that much. Robert Griffin III, Matthew Stafford and Michael Vick all were 6-2 or shorter and were high picks in their respective drafts. But all three of them were perceived to have some elite traits that compensated for their lack of ideal height, with most quarterbacks registering at 6-3 or taller.
So this might not be the 2017 version of that “Jared Goff hand size” nonsense from a year ago, when Goff’s undersized mitts didn’t prevent him from going first. But some teams put more stock in size than others, and a short measurement could be enough to turn at least one QB-needy team off from Trubisky, who has great traits and potential but an incomplete resume.
This quarterback class is similar to the 2014 crop that featured four QBs taken in the first 36 picks. Heading into the combine that year, there was little clarity. Blake Bortles was the surprise choice at No. 3 overall, and it wouldn’t be stunning if one of this year’s quarterbacks vaults himself into a top-three selection — either second to the San Francisco 49ers or third to the Chicago Bears — starting with a big combine week.
The next three QBs taken in 2014: Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr. Manziel did good damage control about his character in some teams’ interviews and, despite not throwing, worked out well athletically in Indy. Bridgewater’s decision to throw backfired on him. He relied on his pro day for that, and his gloved-hand performance there was surprisingly scattershot. It led to a lot of paranoia about his accuracy. Carr also chose not to throw, and though he worked out well, his height and hand size raised concerns.
Carr, of course, stands as the best of that group. Perhaps even by a long shot. Could Mahomes be the fourth quarterback drafted and be the best of the group when we look back three years from now?
“Absolutely,” the college director said.
So while the stock movement that could happen largely will occur behind the scenes, it’s hard to deny that the combine doesn’t play into how the quarterback class will unfold on draft weekend.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at edholm@yahoo-inc.com or follow him on Twitter!
