Pros and cons of Raptors running it back with same roster next season

As NBA free agency approaches on Friday at 6 p.m. ET, it appears likely the Toronto Raptors will run it back with much of the same roster from last season. Or, at least, they will try to.

Rather than making a splashy move at the trade deadline or draft — like dealing one of their key veterans for No. 3 overall pick Scoot Henderson, which would have been a signal that the team is going younger and building around third-year forward Scottie Barnes’ timeline — the Raptors stood pat, only adding Kansas guard Gradey Dick with the 13th overall pick.

While you never want to read too much into a mid-first-round selection, Dick represents the perfect complement to the existing core group of players with his combination of quick decision making, cutting and shooting. Add that to the reports that the Raptors are trying to bring back both of their unrestricted free agents in Jakob Poeltl and Fred VanVleet — the latter of whom has been linked to a potentially massive pay day from the Houston Rockets — and it seems the Raptors want to run it back with the same talented, albeit flawed, roster from last season.

The Raptors are hoping incoming head coach Darko Rajakovic and his brand new coaching staff can get the most out of the roster. They hope Rajakovic can keep everybody happy in his movement-oriented offensive system and that the chemistry issues from last season will be abated by simply winning more games.

There are real pros and cons to the Raptors potentially running it back next season. Let’s break them down:

Pro: Talent Preservation

The Raptors are very familiar with what can happen to a team when it loses talented players for nothing. Following the championship season in 2019, the Raptors saw key veterans like Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Serge Ibaka, and Marc Gasol walk to other teams in free agency for zero return, leaving them with a roster barren of talent.

Whatever your thoughts on the long-term upside, health, price, and fit of free agents VanVleet and Poeltl, there is something to be said about re-signing them now and figuring out the rest later, even if their deals look expensive on paper. After all, with the NBA’s salary cap consistently rising — and a new TV deal coming in 2025 — it’s likely that no matter what the Raptors sign VanVleet and Poeltl for, they will be able to trade them down the line without having to give up assets.

Plus, there is a real chance both VanVleet and Poeltl have better seasons under a new head coach and in a new system, improving their trade value and giving the Raptors more flexibility to re-shape the roster in the future.

When you add in the fact the Raptors have no clear pivot option for a different starting-caliber point guard or centre, it seems like their best option is to bring back the same group and kick the decision-making can down the road one more time.

Con: Chemistry and vibes

It’s easy to blame the lack of on-court chemistry and all-around bad vibes from the Raptors last season on former head coach Nick Nurse and his reportedly splintered coaching staff, but there was a lot more to it than that. The Raptors had players in radically different stages of their careers and they did not have a clear offensive hierarchy, which led to selfish play and frustration throughout the lineup.

Plus, there have been reports dating back several seasons that O.G. Anunoby wants a bigger offensive role, while Barnes is entering his third year and likely wants the same. Bringing back the same roster doesn’t exactly create a clear path for either of those two things to happen.

The Raptors can hope Rajakovic and his .5-second offensive system predicated on unselfish play and ball movement will lead to wins and keep everyone happy, but that is asking a lot of a first-time NBA head coach. After all, players now have certain financial incentives tied to making All-NBA teams and other accolades, giving them legitimate reasons to want to have the ball in their hands more and to take more shots.

Running it back with the same roster along with adding another offensive weapon in Dick does not seem like a good way to turn around the Raptors’ lacklustre chemistry and vibes from last season.

Pro: Competitive teams are nice, especially when you’re out a first-round pick

The Raptors have always been competitive under president Masai Ujiri, repeatedly refusing to take the opportunity to tank and position themselves for a high pick in the draft. Ujiri said himself at the end of last season that “there is parity in the league and I just don't view that breaking down a team is the only way to build a team.”

Even last season, rather than selling at the trade deadline and tanking the final couple months of the season in order to move up in the draft, the Raptors went for it, trading a top-six protected 2024 first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs for Poeltl. Poeltl was excellent, but it didn’t go well as a whole, with the Raptors finishing ninth in the East and losing the play-in game to the Chicago Bulls and DeMar DeRozan’s screaming daughter.

With that said, the Raptors have real incentive to be competitive next season. Not only because the league has as much parity as ever, with the No. 8 seed Miami Heat reaching the NBA Finals last season, but also because they owe next season’s first-round pick to the Spurs, so tanking wouldn’t exactly help them.

Sure, the Raptors could try to be bad enough to get a bottom-six position and hope they keep their pick through the draft lottery, but it is going to be difficult to be that bad with a core of Barnes, Anunoby, and Poeltl still in Toronto. Plus, in the event they were that bad, that pick would then convey to the Spurs in 2025, so being competitive and handing the Spurs a bad pick next season is by far the best outcome for the Raptors.

Pro: Continuity has proven to be good in the NBA

Look no further than last season’s final four teams to see that continuity is key in the modern NBA. The Heat, Boston Celtics and championship-winning Denver Nuggets all had core groups that had been playing together for several seasons, building the requisite chemistry and habits to get them to contender status.

There are many different ways to win a championship, including building a superteam like the Phoenix Suns, but continuity is a very important ingredient for any team that hopes to be a contender without a top-five player in the NBA. Given that the Raptors don’t project to have that type of superstar, it would make sense for them to bet on continuity and hope they get better at playing together each and every season. Add in the fact that none of their core players are older than 29, and it gives them time to figure this out.

Con: A lack of upside

Being competitive is nice. So is continuity. But what is the point of either of those things if there is no clear path to being a championship-level team?

Running it back would represent the safest option for the Raptors, but it doesn’t give them the type of upside that choosing a clear direction and going all-in on said direction does. For example, the Raptors could trade some of their key veterans and go young, accumulating draft picks and young players to set themselves up to contend during Barnes’ prime a few seasons from now.

Or they could go in the other direction, trading young players and future draft capital to get a superstar like Damian Lillard or Karl-Anthony Towns (Kawhi Leonard reunion, anybody?), building around VanVleet and Siakam’s timeline to try to win a championship right now, the future be damned.

But by running it back and boldly trying to toe the line between staying competitive and setting themselves up nicely for the future, the Raptors would be short of clear upside or a path to championship contention, now or down the road.