Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez prediction, pick: Which flyweight stays in contention at UFC on ESPN 55?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 55 flyweight main event between Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez.

Matheus Nicolau UFC on ESPN 55 preview

Matheus Nicolau

Staple info:

• Height: 5’6″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 66″

• Record: (19-4-1 MMA, 7-2 UFC)

• Last fight: Knockout loss to Brandon Royval (April 15, 2023)

• Camp: Nova Uniao (Brazil)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ Amateur boxing experience
+ 5 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Solid feints and footwork
^ Good pivots and lateral movements
+ Excellent boxing ability
^ Prefers to counter and work the body
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Excellent grappling ability
^ Dangerous submissions in transition
+/- 2-0 in the UFC Apex

Alex Perez UFC on ESPN 55 preview

Alex Perez

Staple info:

• Height: 5’6″ Age: 32 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 65.5″

• Record: (24-8 MMA, 6-4 UFC)

• Last fight: Decision loss to Muhammad Mokaev (March 2, 2023)

• Camp: Syndicate MMA (Las Vegas)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Tachi Palace flyweight title
+ Wrestling base
+ Multiple wrestling accolades
+ 5 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Improved striking ability
^ Combinations and bodywork
+ Hard calf kicks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
+ Solid transitional grappler
^ Dangerous from front-headlock
+/- 1-2 in the UFC Apex

Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez point of interest: Leg kicks and counters

Dec 3, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; Matheus Nicolau (red gloves) fights Matt Schnell (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The main event in Las Vegas features a pairing of flyweights who are familiar with leg kicks and their associated counters.

Despite growing up as a wrestler, Alex Perez has developed more and more of a taste for the striking arts since stepping onto the MMA scene.

Initially implementing more of a wrestle-boxing style to start his career, Perez has steadily refined his approach after years spent working with Team Oyama and company. Applying better feints and footwork, Perez will typically prod with jabs off of a high guard as he looks to make his way inside.

Perez displays a decent ability to slip to the outside, usually looking to change levels off it by going to the body. This range of motion also lends itself to the left hooks and leg kicks that the 32-year-old contender has been punctuating his combinations with – skills that were on full display in his fight opposite Jussier Formiga.

I’ll be curious to see what progressions have been made to Perez’s game since working with Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas, but he’ll have to be mindful of what’s coming back at him this Saturday.

Enter Matheus Nicolau.

A counter fighter by nature, Nicolau presents a potentially tricky puzzle for his opponents to solve.

Utilizing heavy doses of feints and footwork to fuel his lateral movement, Nicolau will often frustrate his opposition into making mistakes when trying to desperately close the distance on him. From counter crosses to checking hooks, Nicolau demonstrates excellent eyes in exchanges and savvy pivots when exiting to safety.

Nicolau is also an underrated leg kicker, but I suspect that his patent body jabs will serve him well in this contest.

Akin to Alex Pereira, Nicolau loves to lean on his body jab at range. Not only do body jabs help set up left hooks, but they can also assist with both manipulating and disguising level changes.

Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez breakdown: Potential grappling threats

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 21: (L-R) Alex Perez punches Deiveson Figueiredo of Brazil in their flyweight championship bout during the UFC 255 event at UFC APEX on November 21, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

Considering each fighter’s acumen with chokes from the front-headlock position, I will be curious to see how eager either man is to take this party to the floor.

Despite his accolades in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Nicolau has displayed some solid wrestling chops since stepping onto the UFC scene. Not only does Nicolau hail from an underrated MMA wrestling camp in Nova Uniao, but the 31-year-old Brazilian has also spent time training stateside at super camps like Jackson-Wink MMA.

Whether Nicolau is shutting shots with good sprawls or is smoothly changing his level off punches, the TUF Brazil alum has proven that there are few positions in the cage that he’s not competent from.

Nevertheless, I’m not sure how much success Nicolau will have when it comes to dictating grappling exchanges with a wrestler like Perez.

Indoctrinated into wrestling from a young age, Perez followed the path of his brothers, Julian Perez and Silverio Esparza (who were also Lemoore High School wrestling champs), excelling as a two-time divisional champ who maintained a top-12 state ranking for his weight class. And by his sophomore year at West Hills College Lemoore, Perez received All-American honors before eventually crossing over into MMA.

Stumbling into his fair share of submission losses on a deceptively tough regional circuit, Perez’s transition into MMA certainly wasn’t an easy one. But since his time spent on the Tachi Palace scene, Perez has appeared to make some serious strides, displaying the ability to both finish and control fighters at a high level.

Whether Perez is chaining off of singles and doubles in the open or getting things done inside of the clinch, the former Selma High School wrestling coach can pretty much do it all. And when he’s able to establish his favored front-headlock position, Perez is quick to abuse a plethora of options that range from front-chokes to back-takes, often chaining them off of each other (as seen in his fight with Carls John de Thomas).

However, if Perez does find himself underneath Nicolau this Saturday, then he’ll need to be careful with the back exposure that his wrestling-style getups typically offer.

A longtime Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Nicolau is an incredibly smooth transitional grappler who can quickly take backs when they become available. Nicolau also wields a wicked submission arsenal from front-headlock variations, which could dissuade some offense from his American counterpart.

Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez odds

Matheus Nicolau

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Brazilian, listing Nicolau -200 and Perez +154 via FanDuel.

Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez prediction, pick

Despite my official pick, I don’t disagree with the betting spread above. Aside from the fact that Nicolau will be the competitor with a full training camp, the Nova Uniao product is quietly one of the more technically impressive fighters at 125 pounds.

Bodywork and counter striking may not get the credit they deserve from MMA judges, but Nicolau’s brand of body shots and counters could have some serious play opposite Perez’s propensity to utilize a shelling guard.

Add in Perez’s unfortunate history with opportunistic submissions, and no one should be surprised if Nicolau gets a win with or without the scorecards this weekend. That said, I still find myself leaning toward the American underdog in this spot.

Even though Perez is technically riding a three-fight skid, the majority of those losses came with some serious extenuating circumstances (and fouls) attached. But regardless of the fact that Perez arguably won his last fight, he provides some unique threats that make stylistic opportunities a two-way street in this contest.

Not only does Perez have the wrestling ability to dictate grappling exchanges, but the 32-year-old also has some crushing calf kicks that can potentially punish the boxing-centric stance of Nicolau.

Couple that with the fact that this fight will be taking place in the smaller octagon, and I suspect that Perez’s cage-corralling pressure striking could produce some serious moments opposite Nicolau’s out-fighting sensibilities. I’ll take a flier on Perez to find a knockout by the beginning of Round 2.

Prediction: Perez inside the distance

Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez start time, where to watch

Nicolau and Perez are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 9:45 p.m. ET (6:45 p.m. local time in Las Vegas). The fight airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 55.

Story originally appeared on MMA Junkie