Fight breakdown: B.J. Penn vs. Joe Stevenson

Keys to victory

PENN’S KEYS

STEVENSON'S KEYS

Pop the jab: Penn has an advantage in the stand-up and will benefit by keeping the fight on the feet. The best way to do that is to use his jab, which will score points and have Stevenson looking to counter.

1. High work rate: Penn's conditioning can be poor at times, so Stevenson needs to make him work.

2. Vary the pace: Stevenson will want a fast pace. Penn should slow it down when necessary to keep Stevenson guessing.

2. Hands high: Stevenson can't afford to get caught with a big right hand, so he needs to keep his hands up.

3. Patient on the ground: Penn has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and can use time on the ground to work toward a submission.

3. Be physical: Stevenson should use his strength to his advantage whenever he gets his hands on Penn.

Rating the fighters

Comparison of B.J. Penn and Joe Stevenson.
on a rating of 1 to 10 in several categories:

CATEGORY

PENN

STEVENSON

IOLE’S SKINNY

Punching power

Penn has a clear edge in the stand-up.

Wrestling

Stevenson would love to make it a wrestling match.

Knees/kicks

Legs probably won't decide the outcome.

Ground and
pound

Stevenson is a devastating finisher.

Takedown defense

Penn's takedown defense is superb.

Chin

Penn can shrug off clean shots.

Submissions

Penn was able to submit Matt Hughes.

Stamina

Stevenson can go hard for 25 minutes.

Strength

Stevenson is extremely powerful.

Intangibles

Penn is looking to silence his doubters.

Total

89

89

Penn is more versatile and has more ways to win. He's an expert at submissions, but has a better stand-up. Stevenson will have to push the pace to try to take advantage of Penn's occasional lapses in his conditioning. In a tight fight, that could go either way. Expect Penn to win a decision.