10 fantasy hockey takeaways: Think twice before trading Pierre-Luc Dubois

Pierre-Luc Dubois has been one of the most traded players in Yahoo Fantasy Hockey over this past week, which tells me a lot of managers are making a crucial mistake.

The instant reaction from fantasy managers when it comes to players who are exceeding expectations is to trade them away for a more reliable and less volatile asset. That's probably why Dubois continues to be moved in so many leagues.

While this is the right thing to do in a lot of cases, Dubois isn't the player you should be trying to do this with.

Here are my top 10 fantasy hockey takeaways, starting with Dubois and the many offloading him.

1. Selling high on Pierre-Luc Dubois (86 percent rostered on Yahoo) is the wrong move

After scoring just 21 points through 46 games last season, Dubois is on pace for 75 points in 2021-22. That stark rise in production could be viewed as an aberration by some, but you need to understand the player and his past before coming to that conclusion.

Dubois was the third-overall pick of the 2016 NHL Draft after scoring 199 points across 164 games in the QMJHL. He was an elite prospect, who after years of playing in a defense-first system with the Columbus Blue Jackets, is now thriving on a much more offensively-talented and driven Winnipeg Jets squad.

He's taking the ice alongside Nikolaj Ehlers and Andrew Copp at even strength, while also skating with the team's top power-play unit. At just 23 years old, there's a better chance that this year is what we should continue to expect out of Dubois, rather than what he's done over his first four seasons.

If you have Dubois, hang on to him. More production is on the way.

2. It's Eeli Tolvanen (8 percent rostered on Yahoo) time

If you follow me on Twitter (shameless plug) you know what time it is.

Eeli Tolvanen has been one of the most snake-bitten players in the NHL prior to this week. Through his first 23 games of the season, the Finnish forward recorded just one goal on 62 shots, earning himself a putrid shooting percentage of 1.6 percent. That mark sat well below the 17.1 percent he'd posted ahead of the 2021-22 campaign.

However, the 2017 first-round pick has scored in each of his past two games, and there's good reason to believe he'll continue stuffing the back of the net.

The most glaring indicator of that is his shooting percentage. A player, especially one known for his shooting ability like Tolvanen is, isn't going to continue on a 1.6 percent pace. A shooting percentage that low was bound to correct itself, and should continue to rise as it still sits at a lowly mark of 4.5 percent.

I recommended fantasy managers pluck Tolvanen off the waiver wire before it's too late. His rostered percentage should only continue to rise over the coming weeks.

3. Opportunity knocks with Kevin Fiala (69 percent rostered on Yahoo)

If the Kevin Fiala fantasy manager in your league isn't focusing on the right details, they're likely not pleased with how the Swiss winger has performed this season.

In 25 games, the Minnesota Wild forward has posted just three goals and 15 points. Without contributing much in the blocks (5) or hits (17) department either, Fiala hasn't necessarily been an overly valuable player to roster in fantasy. But again, if you're looking at the right things, you'll notice that it's only a matter of time before his stock is on the rise.

The 25-year-old's 87 shots rank 14th, and considering the rate he's shooting the puck at, a goal-scoring spree is likely coming. The three goals he's scored this year have come on an unsustainably low 3.4 percent shooting percentage, a mark substantially lower than the 11.0 percent he owned prior to the 2021-22 campaign.

Fiala is poised to start lighting the lamp, and he's someone I'm actively trying to acquire in trade. Players I'd be willing to send away in a deal for him are Andrew Mangiapane, Troy Terry, and Jack Hughes.

4. We're not appreciating what Jordan Eberle (34 percent rostered on Yahoo) is doing

You probably didn't know this, but Jordan Eberle is on pace for 42 goals this season.

The switch from the Barry Trotz-led, defense-first New York Islanders to the Seattle Kraken has done Eberle's goal total a whole lot of good. When comparing key metrics like shots per-60, scoring chances per-60, and high-danger chances per-60, Eberle's numbers with the Kraken are actually trailing what he was producing with the Isles, according to Natural Stat Trick. The great equalizer behind this, however, has been a pretty significant uptick in average time on ice.

What Eberle has lost in efficiency, he's made up for in overall usage. Playing on Seattle's first line and top power-play unit, the 31-year-old is averaging 18:01 in ice time, a number noticeably higher than the 16:45 he averaged with the Isles last year.

While his shooting percentage will likely drop from its current 23.1 percent mark to something closer to his career percentage of 13.4 percent, he still seems more than on his way to his first-ever 30-goal campaign. Available in over 60 percent of leagues, he's someone who is under-rostered based on his early-season performance.

5. Jeremy Swayman (63 percent rostered on Yahoo) sneaky swap

There's no better time to trade Jeremy Swayman than right now.

The Boston Bruins netminder has been excellent this year. He owns a respectable 7-4-2 record, a .922 save percentage, and a 2.15 goals-against average. The issue with Swayman in fantasy hockey actually has nothing to do with him, however, and everything to do with what's about to happen between the team's pipes.

Veteran goaltender Tuukka Rask is practicing with the Bruins despite not (yet) being signed to the squad, and general manager Don Sweeney has hinted that he'll play for the team this year. That's a problem for Swayman as between him and Linus Ullmark, only one of them is waivers exempt, and it's not Ullmark.

This means that if, but more likely when, Rask returns to the net, Swayman will probably be sent down to the minors, rendering him ineffective for fantasy hockey purposes.

I wouldn't just take whatever you can get for Swayman at this time, but if you can deal him for someone like Mackenzie Blackwood, Alex Nedeljkovic, or Carter Hart, I'd do it.

6. The John Klingberg (62 percent rostered on Yahoo) conundrum

John Klingberg was drafted in 100 percent of Yahoo leagues and owned an average draft position of 107.6, going directly behind Neal Pionk and ahead of rearguards like Zach Werenski, Thomas Chabot, and Devon Toews,

At this point, no fantasy manager in their right mind would accept a straight-up trade involving Klingberg for any of the aforementioned players, and in fact, he's now only rostered in 63 percent of leagues.

He's recorded nine points (all assists) across 18 games this season, with four coming on the power play. He has a minus-five rating, 16 hits, and 24 blocks. While these numbers are pretty much useless for fantasy managers, the most concerning number has actually been his shots on goal.

Klingberg's rifled just 28 pucks on net. That's resulted in a shots-per-game rate of 1.56, a mark much lower than the 2.13 shots per contest he was averaging over his last six seasons. This drop-off in shots is the main reason why the 29-year-old hasn't recorded a goal this year.

Until his shots climb a little bit, fantasy managers should be a little wary regarding Klingberg. His assists per-60 number is in line with what he's demonstrated in the past, but his goals per-60 rate is obviously much lower, and that's because he's not putting pucks on net.

Monitor Klingberg's shots if he happens to be on waivers in your league. If you notice they start to spike, take a speculative chance on the blueliner.

7. Evan Rodrigues (31 percent rostered on Yahoo) likely to benefit from Jake Guentzel's injury

The Pittsburgh Penguins continue to get bitten by the injury bug, but Evan Rodrigues continues to rise to the occasion.

The depth forward has filled in admirably when called upon this year, which has been often, as players like Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin, and now Jake Guentzel have gone down with injury. Across 25 outings, Rodrigues has posted eight goals and 18 points. He's averaging 16:51 of ice time and 3.28 shots per game. Both of these have me interested in the 28-year-old while Guentzel and Rust remain sidelined.

Additionally, Rodrigues's 8.27 individual expected goals (ixG) mark sits second on the Pens, only slotting behind Guentzel. He's also averaging over a hit per game and owns a respectable plus-five mark. He'll continue to be deployed on Pittsburgh's top line and first power-play unit, which makes him one of the more intriguing players that are widely available on the waiver wire.

8. Playing with Trevor Zegras means it's always Sonny for Milano (33 percent rostered on Yahoo)

Sonny Milano's got it made in the shade.

The Anaheim Ducks winger, a 2014 first-round pick who was trending towards "bust" status has had a career revitalization in Orange County. Across 22 games, Milano's potted eight goals and 20 points, putting him well on pace to shatter his previous career-high in points, which sits at 23.

The player most responsible for his breakout, of course, is none other than rookie sensation Trevor Zegras.

If you don't believe me, just watch this.

Having a linemate like this can really make a difference.

It's not just this isolated incident of chemistry that demonstrates the pair's undeniable connection, but it's surely the best example of it. The two New Yorkers have been in lockstep, and have together reached the stat sheet on 12 Ducks goals since the beginning of November. Anyone who meshes well with a player like Zegras is one worth rostering in fantasy hockey.

The two play on the Ducks' first line and top power-play unit, which means this strong bond will likely continue to result in premier point production.

9. Are Vancouver Canucks stars poised to bounce back with new coach?

Bruce Boudreau has taken over as head coach of the Vancouver Canucks and the team has won each of its last two games.

The bench boss has undoubtedly inherited a roster that holds a lot of potential, and some of it has been on display in its pair of outings since the switch.

Since then, Vancouver has outscored its opponents 6-1. Brock Boeser has registered a goal in each outing, J.T. Miller's tallied three points, and each of Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat, and Quinn Hughes have notched a point. It's a small sample size, but it should have fantasy managers intrigued.

Although there's not enough data to make definitive statements on whether Vancouver's top stars are fully back under Boudreau, there are some numbers that suggest the squad's top performers are due for some positive results.

Pettersson, specifically, is the player I'd be looking to target via trade in your fantasy hockey league. His 6.3 percent shooting percentage this year is nearly 10 percentage points lower than his career average of 16.0 percent. With a discrepancy as glaring as this one, I'd be actively looking to target the centre in trades. Players at the position I'd be willing to send away in a deal to acquire him are Nazem Kadri and Joe Pavelski.

10. Ivan Provorov (73 percent rostered on Yahoo) is the ultimate buy-low defenseman

The Philadelphia Flyers have lost 10 straight games and were just shut out by the New Jersey Devils in their most recent outing.

During this stretch of horrible hockey, the team has scored just 18 goals, not even amounting to two markers per game. This lackluster display of offense has pretty much driven every member of the squad's fantasy value into the ground.

A horrible run like this can present an opportunity to buy low for fantasy managers, however, and there is one member of the Broadstreet Bullies I'm interested in.

Do-it-all defensemen are hard to come by, and despite his recent struggles, Ivan Provorov continues to be exactly that.

The 24-year-old averages 24:23 in ice time per game, and has a long history of being a category stuffer. In three of his first five seasons, the Russian rearguard reached the 30-point plateau. Additionally, he's registered 100 blocks or more every year he's played while also topping that mark in the hits category on three occasions. A lot of these trends have continued this season as Provorov's already recorded 58 blocks in 24 games, and is still on pace to near 30 points despite a rough start all around for the Flyers.

While newcomer Keith Yandle has capped his upside a bit as he's cut into his power-play time, Provorov's 59:49 in ice time on the man advantage this year still ranks prominently around the league, slotting in at 27th among rearguards.

As bad as things have been in Philly, and they've been terrible, I'm still interested in acquiring Provorov. Other blueliners I'd be willing to trade in order to acquire him are Kevin Shattenkirk and Mikhail Sergachev.

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