Which of the Blue Jays' pending free-agent hitters should they consider re-signing?

While the Toronto Blue Jays fight to keep their playoff hopes alive, it’s hard not to acknowledge the club’s offensive shortcomings. Although Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is trending upward, he’s still not quite performing at his peak. George Springer has struggled, as has Daulton Varsho.

Instead, Toronto’s roster has been buoyed by some of the newer, non-core members. Whit Merrifield is second on the club in batting average (.287). Brandon Belt leads the team with a .371 OBP. Kevin Kiermaier has his highest OPS (.737) since 2017, and Matt Chapman, after a hot start, still ranks tied for first on the Jays with a 4.1 bWAR. This crew of veterans and a league-best pitching staff are carrying the squad.

The Blue Jays’ playoff fate this season is still to be determined. Beyond this year, there are decisions to make. Belt, Kiermaier, Chapman, and Merrifield, assuming Toronto denies his mutual option, are all free agents.

Let’s look at the case for keeping each of those pending free agents, how that would or wouldn’t work, and what an extension might cost Toronto.

*Editor's note: All stats accurate prior to games played on Aug. 28

Matt Chapman: 3B

A lot has changed since Chapman’s blazing month of April, after which I projected the 30-year-old would net a seven-year, $185-million contract, assuming he maintained his Player-of-the-Month pace.

Spoiler alert: he didn’t.

Since May 1, Chapman has slashed .211/.303/.360 with 122 strikeouts in 98 games. He’s been a below-average hitter for most of the year.

The calculus begins with the Jays deciding if they need him back. His defence is exceptional, and he’s quite well-liked in the clubhouse, but without the guarantee of a potent bat, Toronto has cheaper, higher-upside prospects (Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger) ready to succeed him. Is Toronto comfortable rolling out Barger as the 2024 Opening Day third baseman? Probably not, but the club might just be okay with Barger plus a veteran platoon guy.

Neither Bichette nor Guerrero Jr. are in mega-deal territory just yet, and with Hyun Jin Ryu off the books after 2023, there’s wiggle room for a chunky Chapman extension. Toronto has up-and-coming pieces, so if another team makes Chapman a lucrative offer in free agency, the Blue Jays can peacefully back away.

Should the Jays do it? Don’t think so.

Projected next contract: Five years, $100 million

Brandon Belt: 1B/DH

The slow-moving, wise-cracking Texan has been a flawless fit atop the Blue Jays’ batting order. The 35-year-old currently leads the club in OPS (.840) and OPS+ (132) despite a career-worst 34.7% strikeout rate.

Belt is a platoon player at this point in his career. He should never really bat against left-handers, and it’s fair to question if Toronto wants him clogging a designated-hitter or first-base slot. Springer will need DH reps as he ages. The club will also want to mix and match next year with some of its positionless hitters, such as Davis Schneider and Spencer Horwitz.

If another team views Belt as an everyday DH and tenders him a contract indicative of that vision, the Blue Jays should steer clear. In the best-case scenario, the two parties agree on something in the realm of a one-year, $12-million pact and run it back for ’24. Perhaps Belt turns in 100 productive games for the Jays next year and hangs ‘em up on a high note.

The one-year timeline makes sense for the Blue Jays. Anything longer gets clunky.

Should the Jays do it? Yes, for a one-year deal.

Projected next contract: One year, $12 million.

Kevin Kiermaier: CF

A first-rate defender with a magnetic personality and a knack for riling up the home crowd, Kiermaier has had an impressive debut season in Toronto. And while Blue Jays fans will be sad if he departs this winter, that was always a possibility — perhaps even the likeliest outcome.

But the 33-year-old has given the Jays many incentives to greenlight another season or two of the KK Show. Firstly, Kiermaier has stayed healthy, pushing past a nagging back issue and dodging major injuries. The added offensive impact is the real kicker. He’s overperforming on power (.412 SLG vs .355 xSLG) but has consistently churned out base hits at the bottom of the order.

Kiermaier, in his best physical shape in years, would be a perfect part-time outfielder and temporary safety net if Daulton Varsho doesn’t overtake him in centre field. His offence might regress, but the speed and glove won’t fade — at least not as harshly as his bat.

Having Kiermaier in the clubhouse helps, too. We could go ‘round and ‘round debating the dollars-and-cents value of leadership, but it’s clearly something the Blue Jays front office appreciates.

If the Blue Jays tender Kiermaier a two-year extension, I reckon it’d be hard for him to say no.

Should the Jays do it? Yes, but not with an everyday role in mind.

Projected next contract: Two years, $17.5 million.

Whit Merrifield: 2B/LF

For 2024, the Blue Jays can pick between Merrifield’s $18-million mutual option or a $500,000 buyout that sends him to free agency. It’s an easy decision on a player heading into his age-35 season.

Still, it’s not a definite no on a return to Toronto. Even if Merrifield loses a step next season (and maybe he won’t), his top-notch contact skills, aggressive baserunning, and versatile defence all make the Jays much better. But like the Chapman scenario, Toronto has younger, cheaper players who can plug the holes.

I’d love to see what Schneider or Barger can do with a full year in the majors, and both those guys could bring greater offensive upside to the lineup. Merrifield has lots more baseball to give; it just likely won’t be with the Blue Jays.

Should the Jays do it? No.

Projected next contract: Two years, $17 million.