What will Matt Chapman's next contract look like?

Matt Chapman is making this season bittersweet for Blue Jays fans.

In one scenario, the third baseman continues his MLB-best performance at the plate and re-signs with Toronto at season’s end. In another, far more likely future, Chapman departs in free agency and gets a barrel of cash from another contending team. Maybe he even inks a deal with a rival team like the Yankees. Ouch.

Whether his next contract comes with the Jays or not, Chapman is playing himself into a mighty payday this winter. Through 18 games, he leads the majors in position-player WAR (1.4), per Baseball Reference, and OPS (1.211) while batting .397 with five home runs. The 29-year-old has never looked better in a Blue Jays uniform.

As arguably the most complete position player in the 2024 free agent class, Chapman can name his price. Here’s an analysis of how much money he can fetch on his next contract.

Projecting the rest of 2023

Chapman will not bat .400 the rest of the season. He likely won’t bat .300 either. But if we zoom in on the changes in his swing — and assume he can maintain those adjustments — Chapman is geared for a big season. His superhuman exit velocity numbers this year are a product of much better timing at the plate. The seven-year veteran added a toe-cadence to his load at the plate, syncing up his big swing and causing his whiff numbers to plummet.

Chapman’s 23.5 percent whiff rate in 2023 is basically identical to the swing-and-miss rates he compiled in 2018 (23.5 percent) and 2019 (23.9 percent), the two best seasons of his career. With the defensive metrics suddenly less sweet on Chapman, it’s unlikely he replicates a 7.0-WAR season (as he did in 2018 and 2019), but the slash lines can be repeated.

A .275/.350/.525 season with 35 home runs and 95 RBI is very possible. If all goes well, Chapman delivers a season of that calibre, vaulting himself into free agency with plenty of suitors.

The Comparables

*assuming Chapman produces a 5.0-WAR season in 2023

**Arenado’s contract came with opt-outs after Year 4 & 5

Nolan Arenado

You could argue Brooks Robinson or Adrian Beltre deserve the title, but Arenado has crafted a strong case as the best defensive third baseman of all time. Chapman is good — he ranks second all-time in outs above average behind the Cardinals' third baseman — but Arenado is on a different planet, having won a Gold Glove in all 10 of his MLB seasons.

That’s one heck of a bargaining chip. In a contract negotiation, he can say, “Hey, if my hitting dwindles and I strike out more, at least my glove will be the bedrock of your defence.”

Offensively, Arenado (at the time of his signing ahead of 2019) had a higher slugging percentage (.539) than Chapman (.476) and a far kinder strikeout rate (19.3 percent) than the Blue Jays infielder (26.8 percent).

Bottom line: Arenado had more steam heading into his walk year than Chapman did. A 5.0-WAR season (or better) in 2023 might earn Chapman an extra year on his next deal, but I don’t anticipate him receiving an eight-year contract worth over $250 million like Arenado.

Marcus Semien

Semien, Chapman’s former teammate in Oakland, is a much safer comparable. The 31-year-old played a different position (SS/2B) but — like Chapman might — used Toronto as a launching point to a mega-deal somewhere else. Semien’s 7.1-WAR season with the Jays earned him a third-place AL MVP finish. If Chapman stays hot, a 7.0 WAR isn’t totally off the table.

Recency bias undoubtedly bit the Rangers in their evaluation of Semien. From 2013 to 2018, Semien was a 96 OPS+ player before upping that to 129 OPS+ from 2019 to 2021. As one might expect, he regressed a touch in 2022 (108 OPS+). All told, I believe Chapman has had a more productive career than Semien, both offensively and defensively. But Semien is here as an example of how far a glorious walk year can take you.

He was the third-best hitter in the AL in 2021 and parlayed that peak year with a free agency opportunity for a deal with the trigger-happy Rangers, making him the highest-paid second baseman in baseball. Now imagine that scenario involving Chapman, who is significantly more valuable on defence. You can almost smell the money.

Prediction for Chapman’s Next Contract

From what I understand, Chapman is valued as a leader on the Blue Jays, and he enjoys playing for Toronto. But money talks, and Chapman is overdue for a raise the Jays likely can’t afford given their current salary commitments.

Chapman’s next contract falls somewhere between Arenado and Semien, though probably closer to the seven-year, $175 million valuation. Clubs will evaluate his glove, arm, and power as his three best tools, though the added contact numbers, if sustained, will boost his stock tremendously.

A win-now team will want Chapman in his prime, even at the price of 200 strikeouts a year during the final seasons of his contract. Right now, it’ll take a seven- or eight-year commitment to secure that winning bid.

Prediction: Seven years, $185.5 million