Blue Jays have a decision to make with John Schneider in offseason full of questions

When someone shows you who they are, believe them.

For 162 games, the Toronto Blue Jays built their brand of baseball: great pitching, colourless offence and agonizingly poor play in the clutch. Why would fans expect the postseason to be any different?

But the Minnesota Twins’ sweep of the Jays in the American League wild-card series showed Toronto’s misfortune is more complex than originally anticipated. Something deep in the Blue Jays’ fabric — whether that’s personnel or philosophy — needs to change. But first, there are rudimentary decisions to be made.

Here are the organization’s biggest questions heading into a deep, dark offseason.

What is John Schneider's future?

The Blue Jays manager screwed up when he removed José Berríos in the third inning of Wednesday’s elimination game. That is clear.

Schneider’s precise culpability, however, is negotiable since it’s obvious the Jays’ inner circle mapped out that specific pitching change for that exact spot. Even so, it’s baffling the skipper didn’t use his eyes, adjust the plan and let Berríos keep cooking.

All that said, it appears likely that Schneider’s job is safe for 2024. He has two contract years remaining and has largely been successful as a regular-season manager (135-101, .572 W-L%), although his playoff resume (0-4) is now terrible. Schneider also has the fortune of being Ross Atkins' choice, and unless the general manager goes, it doesn’t make sense to hire a third manager in as many years.

Beyond that, Schneider is actually quite a good leader for this clubhouse. He’s a strong motivator and mixes old-school grit with modern philosophies to cater to many different people and personalities. His bullpen usage was also adequate until Game 2 against Minnesota.

How much more leeway does Ross Atkins get?

Mark Shapiro has done great things for the Blue Jays franchise, beginning with the new player development complex in Florida and most recently the renovations at Rogers Centre. He’s not going anywhere, and until the team faces a real catastrophe — such as missing the playoffs in ‘24, for example — Atkins, who’s worked with Shapiro since 2001, won’t be leaving Toronto.

That said, the sand timer is emptying. In the interim, Atkins must focus on replacing a gaggle of departing veterans without juicing payroll any higher than the 2023 season. Beyond that, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette will need long-term extensions, assuming the Blue Jays are still contending by then.

It’d be tough for a new general manager to come in, say, after 2024, and immediately handle two of the most important negotiations in franchise history, so it’s safer to have Atkins handle those talks. But there’s so much more baseball to be played before then.

Atkins will be on the hot seat if things start ugly for the Blue Jays next season. He’s fine until then.

How will the Blue Jays make the offence better?

The last few Blue Jays offseasons have been comical. After 2021, the club needed relief help. It got it. After 2022, the Jays needed starting pitchers. They got it. But neither upgrade saved a relatively unbalanced roster. Toronto’s hitters put a lot of pressure on an elite pitching staff this year, and the 2023 Blue Jays flamed out in epic fashion once again.

But this winter could be complicated, as Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Belt, Jordan Hicks, Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield are all free agents. There’s a case to be made none of those guys should return, but even if one or two do, there are still large gaps on this roster.

Toronto needs more slugging, especially since Father Time caught up to George Springer and since Daulton Varsho will be an everyday outfielder again next year. The Blue Jays have some intriguing minor-league options in Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez, but nobody has game-changing major-league potential. Not yet, at least.

That puts it all up to Atkins and the front office to reconstruct a contending club. The pitching staff, minus Hyun Jin Ryu, will all return, but the batting order needs way more sizzle.

Notable free agent sluggers this winter (other than Shohei Ohtani) include Cody Bellinger and, depending on opt-outs, guys like Josh Bell, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Teoscar Hernández and Rhys Hoskins. Any of those guys would make the Blue Jays lineup deeper.

How should the Blue Jays handle Alek Manoah?

This will be the most interesting storyline in spring training, but the Blue Jays can alter the saga with a decisive offseason. Toronto has its top four starters locked and loaded for next season, leaving Manoah as a soft fifth option, though the Blue Jays will certainly prepare a contingency plan.

Once the media speaks to Manoah in spring training, we’ll know more, but it would appear his relationship with the organization isn’t as cozy as it once was. Per reports, Manoah wasn’t happy with his demotion near the end of the regular season and stepped away from the franchise as he righted himself for 2024.

That’s fine, considering he wasn’t a playoff option anyway, but that decision only puts more scrutiny on him heading into next season. Manoah must come into spring camp in excellent physical shape with an “I’ve got to earn it” mentality. Before that, though, Toronto must also beef up its starting pitching depth.

Bowden Francis deserves a legit look as a back-end starter. Ricky Tiedemann, who’s bound to start in Triple-A Buffalo, will make a major-league impact eventually, assuming he stays healthy. Depth is sketchy after that, meaning Toronto could look to the free-agent market for a lower-tier starting pitcher.

Notable back-end starters on the market this winter include Jake Odorizzi, Alex Wood and Julio Teheran, among others.