Blue Jays need an offensive philosophy change this offseason

One big swing can drastically alter the outcome of a postseason contest more than stringing consecutive hits together can. Who would’ve thought?

Certainly not the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays, who managed to muster just one run in 18 innings against the Minnesota Twins while being swept out of the American League wild-card series on Wednesday for the third time in four seasons.

The old saying used to be that manufacturing runs was crucial to winning in the playoffs. That remains true in certain situations. But these days, the chances of enjoying a deep postseason run are much higher if you out-homer your opponent.

That formula was evident in the opening round of this year’s playoffs, with teams who blasted more dingers than their opposition going 5-0. Minnesota was responsible for one of those victories, thanks to Royce Lewis’ multi-homer performance in Tuesday’s Game 1.

Those were the Twins’ lone extra-base hits of the two-game series, although that’s all they required, considering they scored three runs on just two swings. Toronto’s offence, meanwhile, only produced one hit that wasn’t a single: a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. double.

In typical 2023 Blue Jays fashion, Guerrero never made it past second base after Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Alejandro Kirk were retired in order to silence the team’s comeback effort in the eighth inning of Game 1 — highlighting the club’s ineffectiveness to deliver with runners in scoring position.

To their credit, though, the offence stuck to their season-long philosophy of prioritizing contact, as they out-hit the Twins 16-12 in the series. But the problem was that only three of those knocks came in consecutive order, and none impacted the scoreboard.

Scoring runs in the playoffs is already incredibly difficult to begin with, let alone trying to do so via a singles rally. It can be an effective strategy in the regular season, but not so much when facing the best of the best in October.

Toronto’s lineup was reminded of that harsh reality in Minnesota this week — and perhaps that painful ending will morph into motivation for a philosophical shift, with this offseason beginning much sooner than most expected.

There were plenty of positives from the Blue Jays' 2023 offence, which ranked near the top of the majors in AVG (.256), OBP (.329), wOBA (.324), wRC+ (107), walk-to-strikeout ratio (0.42), contact rate (78.5%) and chase rate (27.4%).

In the power department, however, they ranked much lower, finishing 13th in SLG (.417), 16th in home runs (188) and 18th in ISO (.161). They were also near the middle of the pack in generating fly balls (37.7%) and hard contact (38.7% hard-hit rate, 8.1% barrel rate).

Part of that was expected after Toronto traded outfielder Teoscar Hernández, whose 26 home runs with Seattle would’ve tied Guerrero for the team lead. Same with the departure of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who set a career-high in round-trippers (24) in Arizona one year after posting his fewest in a single season (five).

The Blue Jays' front office knew it’d be sacrificing at least a bit of power in favour of improved outfield defence, which meant relying less on the long ball and needing to score in alternative ways. What they didn’t account for, though, was multiple key contributors underperforming in this regard.

Coming into this season, FanGraphs’ ZIPS projections had Toronto rostering three 30-home-run hitters: Guerrero, Daulton Varsho and Matt Chapman. It also had Guerrero and Varsho reaching the .500 SLG mark.

Except neither of those outcomes came to fruition.

Instead, the Blue Jays narrowly concluded the regular season with four players blasting at least 20 dingers: Guerrero (26), Springer (21), Bichette (20) and Varsho (20). But that’s a standard most of this year’s playoff class reached, excluding the Twins, Brewers and Marlins.

On top of that, only three batters in Toronto’s lineup (Bichette, Brandon Belt, Danny Jansen) earned a slugging percentage above .450. Jansen finished the season on the IL and was sorely missed in the wild-card round.

Guerrero was at the centre of most of the fan base’s frustration, and understandably so, given the three-time All-Star is the club’s top threat. He wasn’t the only disappointment, though, as Springer and Kirk also endured significant power outages compared to 2022.

Springer came just four home runs shy of last season’s 25 but witnessed considerable declines in his year-to-year SLG (.067 points) and ISO (.058 points). That was a massive drop-off, considering his projection of a .491 SLG (.405 actual) and .229 ISO (.147 actual).

It wasn’t any better for Kirk, who posted just eight home runs with a .358 SLG and .108 ISO this season. Those were far below his expectations after he crushed 14 bombs with a .415 SLG and .130 ISO en route to his first career All-Star selection in 2022.

So not only did the Blue Jays begin 2023 with less power than they did in the previous season, but they also received below-to-average slugging results from many of their essential middle-of-the-order bats.

However, based on that group’s track record, there should be some sort of regression to the mean in 2024. The only player who may fall short of that might be Springer, who at age 34 could be starting to lose the battle against Father Time. But that alone probably won’t be enough.

Change is undoubtedly coming for Toronto’s roster, with several veterans entering free agency, including Belt, Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier, Hyun Jin Ryu and Jordan Hicks. They’ll also likely be joined by Whit Merrifield, whose $18-million mutual option is expected to be declined.

While the Blue Jays need to add more thump to their lineup this winter, accomplishing that feat in free agency could prove troublesome amidst a thin free-agent market for position players beyond Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger.

In that case, unless management is willing and afforded the opportunity by ownership to make a competitive run at either of those two, any significant upgrades to the offence will almost certainly have to come via trade.

Unlike last offseason, though, the Blue Jays don't possess a surplus of catchers to deal from. As such, they’ll likely need to utilize an already-thinning prospect system, further mortgaging the length of this competitive window.