Blue Jays' bullpen management will be tough balancing act down the stretch
The Blue Jays face difficult decisions in the weeks to come as managing workloads will be weighed against competitive optimization.
For most of the season, the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen has been one of the team's greatest strengths.
The club ranks fifth in the majors in relief ERA (3.59) and its season-long numbers might undersell things, as Jordan Hicks and Génesis Cabrera weren't in town for much of the year. Adding an interesting wild card to that group in Chad Green helps matters, as will the return of Erik Swanson when he finds his way off the IL.
If Toronto holds onto a wild-card spot, its relief corps will be a big reason why. That unit is one of the biggest differentiators the Blue Jays possess to help them navigate the 22 games that will decide the fate of their 2023 season.
Unfortunately for Toronto, as talented as its bullpen is, it has some workload concerns to contend with down the stretch.
In a general sense, the team's starters have done a good job of eating innings, ranking fifth in the majors in total workload (770.2 IP). But that hasn't prevented a number of important Blue Jays relievers from accumulating innings loads unfamiliar to them.
Both Swanson and Trevor Richards project to eclipse previous career-highs in MLB innings since converting to relief roles the next time they step on the mound. Each has a history as a starter, but neither has played that role at any level more recently than 2019.
Tim Mayza and Yimi García are each fewer than six innings from blowing past their previous peaks, and Jordan Romano likely would've been in the same boat if he hadn't spent time on the IL.
There haven't been too many relief innings to go around, but they have been soaked up by Toronto's high-leverage guys.
While taking on a heavier workload doesn't guarantee untimely injuries or performance dips, the Blue Jays have an uncomfortable number of key relievers pushing the envelope.
In some cases that would be an issue solvable by Toronto taking its foot off the gas with its best guys and utilizing its expanded roster to give them a breather, but that's a tall order for a team in the midst of a playoff race that couldn't be tighter.
From here on out, manager John Schneider will have to be vigilant about how his top relievers are holding up, while at the same time fighting tooth and nail for every single win. That's not an enviable position to be in.
There are a couple of factors that could make things easier.
Strong pitching from Toronto's starters could go a long way and if Green proves worthy of high-leverage innings in the weeks to come, that could ease the load for some of the others. A hot streak from the Blue Jays offence would also provide some leads more suitable for innings from lower-leverage guys like Bowden Francis and Jay Jackson.
Any of that is possible, but the Blue Jays could just as easily continue to struggle with the bats, experience a rough start or two, and discover Green can't be trusted yet. Toronto is about to play 10 games in 10 days, and four of them will be critical matchups against the Texas Rangers that require playoff-like urgency.
Following Thursday's off day, Schneider is probably feeling good about where his best arms are at, but managing this bullpen — as talented as it is — isn't going to be an easy task from here on out.