Why Blue Jays-Rangers rivalry could reignite down the stretch

The Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers will soon cross paths amid a critical stretch run for both franchises, which could renew a rivalry that was once among the most exhilarating in baseball.

The fireworks started during the 2015 playoffs, with Jose Bautista's famous bat flip highlighting Toronto's ALDS victory in a tightly contested five-game series. Texas didn't take kindly to Bautista's antics, with infielder Rougned Odor punching the Blue Jays outfielder in the face during a matchup the following season.

Toronto and Texas met again in the 2016 ALDS, with the Blue Jays cruising to a 3-0 sweep. The rivalry has laid dormant ever since.

Both organizations have dramatically overhauled their rosters over the past seven years, causing each to endure a brief rebuilding period amidst those teardowns. For the Blue Jays, names like Bautista and Edwin Encarnación left town, ultimately making space for a new core led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.

Texas, meanwhile, said goodbye to key pieces like Adrián Beltré (retired), Elvis Andrus and Odor on the position player side. The Rangers have replenished that group by spending half a billion dollars in free agency on Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, plus adding Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer — among others — on the pitching front.

With all this roster turnover, only two players remain from that 2016 playoff showdown: Rangers relievers Martín Pérez and José Leclerc.

Despite all the personnel changes, an upcoming late-season matchup could reignite the flame between the dugouts.

Once the Blue Jays finish this soft portion of their schedule, they’ll have 19 games remaining in the regular season, four of which will come against the Rangers at home starting Sept. 11.

While Toronto is currently outside the AL playoff picture, sitting 2.5 games back of the final wild-card seed, that four-game set could be a significant factor in determining its fate, especially amidst the Rangers' recent slide.

The Rangers surprisingly led the AL West division for much of this season, but by dropping 11 of their last 16, they’ve gone from holding a 2.5-game edge over first place on Aug. 13 to the third wild-card position.

That opened the door for the Seattle Mariners, who’ve surged back into playoff contention despite trading closer Paul Sewald at the deadline. It has also increased the Houston Astros’ chances of winning the division for a third straight season.

Not only has this recent collapse potentially cost Texas a division title, but it has also put the team in jeopardy of missing the postseason entirely.

The Rangers have watched their playoff odds fall from 92.6% on Aug. 13 to 70.3%, per FanGraphs — the lowest among the three wild-card holders. Plus, their .519 remaining strength of schedule is second behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the toughest in the race.

Toronto’s postseason odds (44.3%) are much bleaker than Texas's due to the sizeable gap between them in the standings. But one advantage the Blue Jays possess is an easier remaining strength of schedule (.493).

One factor that has Texas playing a tougher schedule is that 10 of its final 30 games are against Seattle and Houston. Since someone has to lose those contests, there will be opportunities for teams on the outside looking in to take advantage.

At the moment, the Blue Jays’ best chance to make the playoffs could be leapfrogging the Rangers, adding to the intensity of next month’s series. They must, however, first take care of business during this winnable span against sub-.500 clubs (Rockies, Athletics, Royals).

If Texas continues to fall and Toronto terrorizes those last-place clubs, there could be a scenario where the final wild-card seed will be on the line over those four games at Rogers Centre next month.

It is also worth noting that the Blue Jays must win three out of four against the Rangers to secure the season series after dropping two out of three at Globe Life Field in June. Anything less would give the tiebreaker to the Rangers — the deciding factor should both finish with identical records.

Toronto would likely prefer to have its top four starting pitchers appear in that series to best ensure it avoids that fate. As currently constructed, though, Kevin Gausman would be unavailable as he’s lined up to throw the day before that series begins.

There should be an easy solution to that dilemma, like using a spot starter or a full arsenal of relievers during the series finale against Kansas City, pushing back Gausman’s start to the opener versus Texas while also providing the club’s ace an extra day of rest.

As such, the Blue Jays could then roll out a talented quartet of Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Hyun Jin Ryu or Yusei Kikuchi to face one of baseball’s most elite offences. And they’d be going toe-to-toe with a formidable pitching staff, too.

Despite losing deGrom to Tommy John surgery, the Rangers acquired fellow ace Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery via trade to go along with existing rotation members Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning. They could also have Nathan Eovaldi (forearm strain) back off the IL at that point.

Much of the Rangers’ woes have occurred at a position the Blue Jays further strengthened at the trade deadline: the bullpen. Once Erik Swanson returns from the IL and Chad Green makes his long-awaited debut, their relief corps could be unmatched across the sport — which should give them an edge in next month’s series.

It probably won’t match the intensity of those thrilling 2015 and ‘16 playoff affairs, but there certainly shouldn’t be a lack of edge-of-your-seat moments throughout the four games.