Bautista deal would be high-upside play for Blue Jays

After months of uncertainty, it looks like the Toronto Blue Jays and Jose Bautista have finally agreed to reunite.

Sources tell Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports that the deal to bring Bautista back to Toronto is virtually complete, and according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, it will be a one-year contract with a mutual option for year two.

A deal like this would effectively be a one-year contract. Mutual options are almost never accepted because it’s exceedingly unlikely that both team and player are in complete agreement about what the latter should earn, and that number is the one determined in a contract signed prior to the season.

If Bautista has an outstanding year he’d opt for free agency, if he underperforms the Blue Jays would likely cut him loose. The greatest benefit to either side could be the buyout money Bautista would be entitled to if 2017 proves to be a flop for him and the Blue Jays turn down the option.

In eight seasons and change with the Blue Jays, the 36-year-old posted an outstanding .261/.382/.528 line, hitting 265 home runs and driving in 701. Since his 2010 breakout season, he’s been arguably the best hitter in franchise history and he achieved Blue Jays immortality with his ALDS-winning home run in 2015 and the accompanying bat flip.

For all his accomplishments, there were a number of factors making it difficult for Bautista to find a landing spot this offseason. His age was certainly a concern for teams, especially seeing as 2016 was his worst season since he established himself as one of the game’s premier offensive threats. He also turned down a qualifying offer in November, adding a draft pick to his price, and the market has not been kind to power hitters lately.

In recent weeks it became clear the Blue Jays were seriously contemplating Bautista as an option to help fill one of their outfield corners as his market proved to be less robust than expected. Although the 13-year veteran has his warts – especially defensively – he certainly possesses the highest ceiling of the available free agent outfield crop.

Even during Bautista’s “down year” in 2016, he managed a .234/.366/.452 line with 22 home runs, output significantly better than most starting outfielders. However, that production ended up being worth only 1.4 Wins Above Replacement per FanGraphs due to poor defensive metrics.

Since the Blue Jays have Kendrys Morales installed at the designated hitter spot, they will have to live with Bautista’s defensive limitations. Trotting out an outfielder with declining defensive numbers for his age-36 season is certainly a scary proposition, both in terms of performance in the field and an ability to stay healthy.

Even so, Bautista is almost certain to be an above-average offensive contributor and would be a boon to a Blue Jays’ lineup hurt by the departure of Edwin Encarnacion. What the success of his deal will hinge on is the extent of his excellence with the bat.

If he replicates last season’s performance and is simply good at the plate, his value will likely be sapped by what he does in the field and on the bases. That might be enough to make the Blue Jays regret a deal.

If he returns to something more like his 2015 level at the dish, it could be an absolute bargain.

The Blue Jays would be relinquishing a fair amount of coin, passing up the opportunity to net a very valuable draft pick, and investing in a one-dimensional player to make this deal happen. On the flip side, more often than not it’s a wise idea to retain one of the most dynamic hitters of his generation.

It’s an interesting gamble, one that’s not nearly as sure to pay off as the widespread fan exuberance would lead one to believe. But the upside is potentially massive, and with the Blue Jays still a ways behind the Red Sox in the 2017 projections, they need to take some big swings – signing the guy who takes bigger swings than anyone certainly qualifies as a start.