5 encouraging trends for Blue Jays early into season

TORONTO – Sure, we’re only now past a dozen games into the Toronto Blue Jays season. It’s not enough of a sample size to ring alarm bells or crown World Series champions, but there are trends forming.

For now, let’s focus on the positives. Here are five encouraging developments through the Blue Jays’ first four series of the season.

Varsho fine-tuning the approach

Daulton Varsho has been genuinely impressive in his brief Blue Jays tenure. He came out of the gates hot in St. Louis and Kansas City and has flashed stronger contact tools, including a 6-for-16 start against left-handed pitchers.

"I think that was [always] in there for Varsho," manager John Schneider said of his outfielder’s improved approach. "He can do a lot of different things, whether it's patience, damage, or getting a hit, so [I’m] pleased with where he's at right now."

On top of some calmer at-bats in the box (career-high 13% walk rate), the 26-year-old is getting much more lift on his batted balls. His 28.1% groundball rate is down from a career average of 40.4%, and he’s crushing liners at a 40.6% clip, much better than his 22.5% career average. Regression is inevitable – Varsho is prone to hot and cold streaks – but, right now, he’s helping Toronto win ball games, and that’s the big takeaway.

Swanson settling in, dicing with splitter

Reliever Erik Swanson needed to be excellent to merit the trade of Teoscar Hernández, and so far he’s picked up where he left off a season ago – albeit with a little twist. The right-hander has excelled in his leverage outings – typically in the seventh or eighth inning – thanks to a deadly splitter he first learned by watching videos of Kevin Gausman and has now sharpened over the years.

"I feel like I'm throwing more to righties now," Swanson said of the splitfinger. "So that kind of opens that pitch up a little bit more."

Through seven outings, the 29-year-old has racked up six of his seven strikeouts with the splitter, and right-handed hitters have whiffed on it 55.6% of the time. Swanson’s arsenal is still growing, too, which must excite the Blue Jays. He only really felt comfortable throwing the splitter midway through 2021, right around the time his career took off. Pitchers love to tinker, but the early signs on the split are great for Swanson: more velocity, more swing-and-miss, and more effectiveness.

Blue Jays playing elite defence

There’s an unending suspicion towards defensive metrics in baseball, but defensive runs saved (DRS), one of a few varying formulas that evaluate defenders, loves the Blue Jays. As of Friday morning, the Jays had cooked up 13 defensive runs saved, good for second in baseball behind the Brewers.

Anecdotally, that seems true. The club looks tighter on defence, especially in the outfield, where Kevin Kiermaier’s arrival booted George Springer, a still-solid centre fielder, to right field. Mix in Varsho in left, and you’ve got one airtight outfield trio.

Beyond that, there's less certainty. Matt Chapman always looks solid, though he graded out as an average third baseman (2 DRS) a season ago. Bo Bichette is eternally despised by advanced defensive stats, but if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. keeps bailing him out with timely stretches at first, maybe that gets turned around.

Bichette still laser-focused

Good luck getting a pitch past Bichette right now. When he’s on, the 25-year-old burns white hot at the plate, and right now he’s carrying over the success of his final month of 2022 (1.105 OPS).

Bichette’s devilish approach is conducive to volatile stretches. He never stops swinging or chasing, but when he’s at his best, the ball is almost always put in play. That’s where we’re at right now. Bichette has a .947 OPS with four homers and is striking out just 11.3% of the time, which allows his elite bat control to take control of big moments.

Blue Jays are comeback kids, again

Last year, the Jays finished with 41 comeback wins. That never-say-die spirit has carried on into 2023, where the club has six come-from-behind wins through 13 contests.

"This team, the last couple of years, doesn't quit," said Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen. "You can’t count us out on stuff. And that's always been the focus; we’re not going to stop fighting until the game's over."

Wednesday’s walk-off win over the Tigers was promising – it’s important for Toronto to win those games where it snaps out of a lull and storms back to clobber a weaker team. That relentless attitude racks up wins and ideally series sweeps, which are especially precious in an AL East currently dominated by a 13-0 Rays team.