Does Canada’s medal-focused funding strategy present a catch-22?

Canada's doing very well in the medal count in Sochi thus far, as expected, and that's partly thanks to the change in approach ahead of the 2010 Olympics in Vancouver. However, while the Own The Podium program's focus on channelling more money to those determined to be realistic medal hopefuls has produced plenty of success stories, there are some drawbacks to it as well. In particular, there's the question of it's a catch-22: athletes have to show medal potential to receive significant funding, but can they demonstrate that potential without funding? If not, Canada could be missing out on medals thanks to not giving certain athletes enough of a chance to develop. That's an argument that's mentioned by The Toronto Star's Kerry Gillespie, who talked with Canadian snowboard coach Dan Raymond about why his male and female riders were seen as unlikely to medal in halfpipe:

The discussion here isn't necessarily about rolling back the Own The Podium strategy across the board. There clearly is a limited pot of funding to go around, and the approach of heavily funding strong medal contenders has proved very successful for Canada. However, development needs to be considered as well; there's a distinction between those who are unlikely to medal regardless of funding and those who aren't necessarily medal contenders at the moment, but could be with a little more investment.

One case in point there might be alpine skier Larisa Yurkiw, the sole Canadian woman to compete in the downhill Wednesday. After battling back from a severe knee injury in 2009 that cost her two years of competition, Yurkiw achieved only limited success on the World Cup circuit in 2012-13, prompting Alpine Canada to drop her funding in favour of those seen as more serious medal contenders. Yurkiw went out and raised over $100,000 herself to keep skiing though, earned an extra World Cup berth for Canada with a career-best seventh-place finish at Lake Louise, qualified for the Olympics thanks to a sixth-place finish in Italy and then finished in the top half of the field Wednesday despite skiing on an ankle she sprained in training Friday. She achieved some World Cup and Olympic success this year despite having to do it the hard way; who knows what would have happened if Alpine Canada had recognized her potential before the season and supported her more extensively?

The Yurkiw case does illustrate a potential solution to the funding dilemma as well, though. Squabbling over how much pie everyone gets can matter, but growing the pie can be even better. What's notable about Yurkiw's self-funding efforts is the organizations she managed to convince to support her; they weren't massive Canadian Olympic Committee sponsors, but smaller businesses she talked to individually, such as Buduchnist Credit Union and Nella Cutlery and Food Equipment. Maybe there are ways for Canada to get other small businesses like that involved in helping local athletes, freeing up some of the central pot of money so it can be spread across more athletes and used to develop possible medal hopefuls as well as support the strong, established ones.

Why should Canada be concerned about broadening funding? Well, there's some logic behind it. Keep in mind that predicting who's going to be a medal contender a long ways out is far from an exact science. Data from results in World Cup events can be used to do this, and it's a good starting point, but there are always those like Yurkiw who show improvement that wasn't expected. Moreover, the Olympics themselves also often carry surprises; there are effects from terrain conditions, injuries, and other randomizing factors to consider, and as many of the medals are handed out based on a small sample size of results, anything can happen. Take a look at Canadian snowboarder Max Parrot and American snowboarder Shaun White, for example; they recorded the highest scores at the Olympics in their respective events (slopestyle and halfpipe), but as those scores came in preliminary rounds rather than the final, both finished out of the medals. Does that mean they weren't worthy of funding? Of course not; they're amongst the best snowboarders in the world, and both demonstrated that with their performances in Sochi. Things just didn't quite work out for them to end up on the podium, and their events were won by less-heralded riders (Sage Kotsenburg and Iouri Podladtchikov, respectively).

That element of the unexpected has benefited Canada in other areas, though. For example, Infostrada's data-based projections didn't have Canadians earning a medal in the men's 1000-metre long track speed skating race Wednesday, but Denny Morrison (who only was entered thanks to teammate Gilmore Junio giving up his spot) took home silver. Those projections have been largely accurate in a lot of the other sports that have played out thus far, of course, and data-based analysis and extremely targeted funding have both proven important to Canadian Olympic success. It's just worth keeping in mind that funding some longer shots carries benefits as well, as with the right training and the right breaks, they may be able to own the podium too.