Blue Jays riding ups and downs of September baseball

One day up; the next day down. This is September baseball for a team that's still fighting for a playoff spot with less than a week left in the season.

The Blue Jays had to feel good about their chances to be playing in the American League wild-card game next Tuesday night and have home field advantage after Tuesday's win over the Orioles. Wednesday's 3-2 loss to Baltimore followed and swiftly left a feeling of uncertainty about what had seemed like a foregone conclusion just 24 hours earlier.

The Orioles are now one game back of Toronto in the wild-card standings entering Thursday night's game while Detroit is one game behind Baltimore in the race.

What unfolded at Rogers Centre on Wednesday night was representative of what this Blue Jays team is on most nights: a rotation that's been outstanding all year; an offence that for whatever reason doesn't have the same dynamic edge it had in 2015; a bullpen that had found stability midseason and is now suddenly shaky again.

Toronto managed two runs off Orioles starter Chris Tillman in 5 2/3 innings, historically a pitcher they demolish. Francisco Liriano pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings, but Jason Grilli gave up a solo shot to Mark Trumbo in the eighth and Roberto Osuna allowed a two-run homer in the ninth that turned a 2-1 lead into a 3-2 deficit.

This much is clear as it can be in the final week of the season: The Blue Jays aren't last year's team, and last year's team isn't turning up any time soon.

The Red Sox clinched the AL East title Wednesday after the Blue Jays' loss, meaning all they have to play for during their weekend series against Toronto is playoff seeding. There's an outside chance Boston could pass Texas to be the AL's No. 1 seed and they remain one game up on Cleveland for home field in a potential ALDS between the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds.

But before the Blue Jays get there, they have one more critical game opposite the Orioles left to play, with Marcus Stroman on the mound. A win Thursday night and everything feels good again. Two games up on Baltimore with three remaining. A home game for a spot in the ALDS in plain sight. A loss? Well, then Toronto will have to outdo or match what the Orioles do in their three-game set against the Yankees. A match will do because the Jays hold the tiebreaker over Baltimore.

That's what fans will be holding on to if the result goes against Toronto on Thursday night. A win, though, and you can start planning your wild-card game watch party for next Tuesday. One run, like it was the case Wednesday, can make the difference between agony and ecstasy; the slimmest of margins. That's the beauty and the beast of September baseball.

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Israel Fehr is a writer for Yahoo Canada Sports. Email him at israelfehr@yahoo.ca or follow him on Twitter. Follow @israelfehr