The state of the quarterbacks: six settled situations, three in flux, two real problems

The CFL's often been described as a quarterback-centric league, and that's at least partly accurate. In a three-down league, you have to throw enough that having a good passing offence is critical to moving the chains, and the quarterback can make a huge difference. Consider the 2011 and 2012 seasons, where the Toronto Argonauts went from 6-12 to 9-9 and a Grey Cup championship thanks largely to the offseason acquisition of Ricky Ray, while Ray's former team in Edmonton slumped from 11-7 with a West Final loss to 7-11 with a first-round loss (to Ray and the Argos, oddly enough). However, it's not all about the quarterback; the data shows that strong quarterback play and good winning percentages aren't all that correlated this season. Still, quarterbacks can be the most crucial player on a team, and they're worth looking at in further detail. Let's explore the quarterback situations around the league, which can be approximately divided into three groups.

Group One: Unquestioned starters (Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatchewan, Winnipeg, Toronto, Ottawa): These six teams all have a clear starting quarterback, and in most cases, that's worked out well for them. They're a combined 26-18 overall, which improves to 25-12 if you leave Ottawa out and 22-7 if you also remove Toronto. They also have six of the top seven positions by team and by quarterback in our super power rankings this week (the exception is B.C. and Kevin Glenn, which we'll discuss shortly). However, the performances of the quarterbacks in this group does vary a bit, and it doesn't always strictly align with teams' records. We'll get to that later.

Group Two: Two experienced options (B.C.): Yes, this is a one-team group, but the B.C. Lions' quarterback situation is unique. The team's done reasonably well with Kevin Glenn under centre, especially lately; they're 5-3 overall, they've won three in a row, and their president is so confident he guaranteed a victory against Saskatchewan Sunday. However, they also have Travis Lulay, who's been the team's unquestioned starter for years and is just returning from injury. Will the team transition from Glenn as a starter to Lulay as a starter, and if so, when? Or will they try to use a two-quarterback system? Regardless of which path they choose, the Lions at least have two proven options, which differentiates them from the teams in Group Three.

Group Three: No highly-experienced options (Hamilton, Montreal): These teams have it the worst from a quarterback point of view at the moment, and they're both 1-6. For the Tiger-Cats, that record hasn't largely been about quarterback play; they actually have two impressive quarterbacks on their roster in Zach Collaros and Dan LeFevour, and both played well this year, but both are currently injured, with LeFevour being out for the season. Collaros may return at some point from a concussion, but he's not ready yet. That leaves them with unproven-but-talented options Jeremiah Masoli, Stephen McGee and Jacory Harris. Things look even worse in Montreal; Troy Smith struggled this season and has been put on the six-game injury list, and replacement Alex Brink (who has been in the CFL since 2010, but hasn't played many games) hasn't been able to alter their fortunes yet. If he can't turn the ship around, their other options are inexperienced quarterbacks Tanner Marsh and Jonathan Crompton.

At first glance by this analysis, strong quarterback situations seem well-correlated with winning. Two of the league's worst teams (Hamilton and Montreal) by record currently have the worst QB setup, and the league's best teams by record are all in Group One with a proven starter. However, it's a little more complicated than that, proving yet again that wins are not the proper stat to evaluate quarterbacks by. The league's top quarterback by passing yards is Toronto's Ricky Ray, but his team's just 3-5. Second is Winnipeg's Drew Willy, whose team is 5-2, but has lost two straight. Third is B.C.'s Kevin Glenn, who hasn't even firmly solidified his hold on the starting job. Meanwhile, Calgary's Bo Levi Mitchell and Edmonton's Mike Reilly aren't dazzling by the numbers, but their teams are both a league-best 6-1. Ottawa's Henry Burris is having a down year statistically, and that's part of the reason why the Redblacks are 1-6, but watching their games, it becomes clear that their offensive problems extend well beyond the quarterback. A data-driven analysis shows there's little to no correlation this year between a team's passing yards or completion percentage and its number of wins.

Thus, while quarterback play is going to be a problem for the Group III teams going forward, it's not the only reason why they're each 1-6. In Hamilton's case, it's a very small part of the reason the team doesn't have more wins so far. Meanwhile, Group I teams like Toronto and Ottawa are receiving great to good quarterback play, but that's not translating into wins thanks to their other struggles. Still, at least the Group I and II teams appear to have answers at quarterback. Montreal and Hamilton could use more of those.