Playoff Primer: Edmonton clinches second in the West, Montreal takes pole position in the East

With just one week and four games left in the CFL's regular season, there's still a lot to play for. The permutations of possible remaining results have decreased significantly, from 30 two weeks ago to 16 last week to just eight now, but there are still playoff berths and playoff seeds on the line. The picture's a lot clearer now, though, and it's relatively simple to figure out exactly what possible outcomes remain.

In the West Division, Edmonton's 37-3 home win over B.C. Saturday means that the Eskimos have locked up second place. Calgary had already clinched first and Winnipeg was already out of the playoffs, so the Bombers 18-13 road victory over the Stampeders Saturday was largely immaterial, but the injury to star Calgary RB Jon Cornish may matter. From a seeding perspective, though, we know the Stampeders will have a first-round bye and will host the West Final on Nov. 23, and we know that the Eskimos will host the West semifinal on Nov. 16. The question's just who they'll play.

With one game left, B.C. and Saskatchewan both are tied at 9-8. They played each other twice this season, with each team winning once, but the Lions control the tiebreaker thanks to head-to-head point differential (they beat the Roughriders 26-13 on the road in July and lost 20-16 at home in August). Thus, Saskatchewan needs to beat (or tie) Edmonton this Saturday at home and have B.C. lose at home to Calgary to take third place. Otherwise, the Lions are in third and the Riders are crossing over to the East.

Out East, things are still a little more complicated, even if the possibility of a three-way tie is no longer in play. Montreal clinched a playoff berth with a 17-14 home win over Toronto Sunday, but the 9-8 Alouettes could still finish first or second. Their final game is on the road against 8-9 Hamilton this coming Saturday, and Montreal won the first game between the clubs 38-31 in September. Thus, an Alouettes' victory or a Tiger-Cats' win by less than seven leaves Montreal in first. If Hamilton wins by exactly seven, this goes to the next step of the tiebreaker, point quotient between the clubs; the Tiger-Cats would thus need to score more than 38 to win this tiebreaker. (The Alouettes have the better record within the division, the next step of the tiebreaker after point quotient, so Montreal gets first if Hamilton wins 38-31 Saturday.) If the Tiger-Cats win by more than seven, they're in first and Montreal's second.

The 7-10 Argonauts are the joker in the mix. They hold the head-to-head season series tiebreaker with the Tiger-Cats thanks to last week's home 26-24 win that improved them to 2-1 against Hamilton on the year. Toronto can't catch Montreal for first any more, but if the Argonauts win at home against the Redblacks Friday and the Tiger-Cats lose to the Alouettes Saturday, Toronto's the East's second seed (hosting either Saskatchewan or B.C. in the East semifinal Nov. 16) and Hamilton's on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

Here's a sheet summarizing the remaining potential outcomes, game-by-game.