Playoff Primer: B.C.'s in, we'll have a crossover, and Montreal takes the lead in the East

The 30 potential outcomes to the CFL's remaining games heading into this week have now decreased almost by half, and the playoff picture's become much clearer. The Montreal Alouettes have taken sole possession of the East Division lead thanks to their 23-17 win over Ottawa in an emotional game Friday and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats' 26-24 loss to the Toronto Argonauts Saturday. One of those three Eastern teams is going to be left out of the playoffs, thanks to the B.C. Lions' 28-23 win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers Friday; that win also means Winnipeg is officially eliminated. So, what possibilities remain?

There are seven teams with two games still to play and two (Saskatchewan and Winnipeg) with just one game left. Using the same combinatorics approach we discussed last week, we can determine there are 16 mathematically distinct permutations of remaining results, ignoring ties. (Each game has two possible outcomes for each team, a win or a loss; teams with two games left have 2^2, or four, possible outcomes (W-W, W-L, L-W, L-L), while teams with one game left have 2^1, or two, possible outcomes (W or L). 7*4 plus 2*2 equals 32 possible outcomes, which we then divide by two to get 16, as each game involves two teams.) However, not all of those permutations lead to different playoff seeds. Here's a look at what the remaining outcomes are for each team in the East Division:

And in the West Division:

Out East, just about everything is still up for grabs. 8-8 Montreal leads the division, but could still finish outside the playoffs. Both Hamilton and Toronto could finish anywhere from first to out of the playoffs. Things get really complicated if both Hamilton and Toronto beat Montreal and lose to Ottawa, leading to a three-way tie. That potential scenario is explained in detail here.

In the West, the most interesting battle may be to see who's third and who's crossing over. That's likely between 9-7 B.C. and 9-8 Saskatchewan. The Lions have the edge at the moment: they control the tiebreaker thanks to winning the two-game series between the clubs on points, plus they have an extra game in hand. Thus, a single B.C. win in their remaining two games or Saskatchewan losing to Edmonton in Week 20 would give the Lions third and have the Riders cross to the East. (That could be beneficial for Saskatchewan, though; while the eastern teams have improved lately, they still may be less imposing than facing the Stampeders and Eskimos).

The Lions also remain on the edges of contention for the second seed in the East. To get that, they need to win both of their remaining games and have the 11-5 Eskimos lose both of their remaining games. B.C. plays at Edmonton this week, then hosts Calgary in the final week, while the Eskimos will take on the Riders in Saskatchewan in Week 20 after facing the Lions. If those combinations of results happen, B.C.'s second, Edmonton's third, and Saskatchewan's fourth and crossing over.

The picture has definitely cleared from what it was before this weekend's games, but there's still a lot that can happen. We'll know much more after Week 19's games.