Playoff Preview: Will the Stampeders be able to hold off the Lions?

Here’s the next installment in our Playoff Preview series, taking a look at Sunday’s West semifinal (4:30 p.m. Eastern, TSN/ESPN3/YouTube outside countries with broadcast deals) between the 7-11 B.C. Lions and the 14-4 Calgary Stampeders.

B.C. offence: Two NCAA coaches.

The Lions’ offence had plenty of struggles this year, with B.C. finishing tied for fifth in total points per game (24.3), seventh in points per game from the offence (21.9), eighth in offensive yards per game (313.0), first downs per game (18.2), rushing touchdowns (9), and rushing yards per game (81.3), and last in rushing first downs (84) and average time of possession (27:56). However, there were some bright spots for them, and some quarters and games where their offence clicked at a high level. Much may depend on the play of rookie quarterback Jonathon Jennings, who’s shown promise as the team’s starter down the stretch (since Week 14), throwing for 2,004 yards and 10 touchdowns with a 66.0 per cent completion rate. However, he’s been somewhat inconsistent, tossing 15 interceptions as well. Jennings has some weapons to work with, including running back Andrew Harris and wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux. He also has a good offensive line; the Lions allowed just 34 sacks this year, third in the league and one behind co-leaders Calgary and Montreal. Still, a road playoff start in Calgary isn’t going to be easy.

B.C. defence: Three injured linebackers.

The Lions have been without Solomon Elimimian, last year’s Most Outstanding Player (and the first full-time defensive player to win that award), for much of the year, and his absence has been felt. Fellow linebacker Adam Bighill has done a nice job of stepping up, leading the league with 121 defensive tackles, but this defence is much more ferocious with Elimimian alongside him, especially against the run. Stopping the ground game has been a big issue for B.C. with Elimimian out. On the year, the Lions were seventh in points allowed per game (24.3), net offence allowed per game (361.1 yards), and yards per rush (5.4), and eighth in rushing yards allowed per game (116.2) and rushing first downs conceded (134). They were better, but still far perfect, against the pass, allowing 264.3 yards per game (fifth in the league) and 8.1 yards per pass (sixth in the CFL), but recording 23 interceptions (tied for third). Veteran DB Ryan Phillips led the way with six picks, and if he can make another one Sunday, that could help the Lions out a lot. They’ll still need to find a way to shut down the Stampeders’ rushing attack, though.

B.C. special teams: Three star returners.

Chris Rainey has been a terrific find for the Lions in the return game, excelling down the stretch and finishing with 761 kickoff return yards on just 27 attempts, giving him a best-in-the-league average of 28.2 yards per kickoff return. He also had 602 punt return yards on 48 attempts, an average of 12.5 yards per attempt that’s tied for second in the league. Rainey only recorded two return touchdowns (one on a kickoff and one on a punt), but consistently put his team into good field position. Punter/kicker Richie Leone and the cover teams have helped there too, as Leone is averaging 49.5 base yards per punt and 38.3 net yards per punt, both tops in the league. However, Leone’s kicking hasn’t been as strong; his 76.9 per cent field goal rate is eighth amongst kickers who qualified and 10th overall.

Calgary offence: Five Canadian running backs.

The Stampeders’ offence was dominant this year, with Calgary scoring 26.6 points per game overall (second in the league) and leading the league with 25.1 points per game from their offence. Their yardage numbers weren’t quite as high, but 343.6 yards per game (fourth in the league) is still nothing to sneeze at, and they were effective with both the pass and the run, finishing fourth in both of those categories. Quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell, last year’s Grey Cup Most Outstanding Player, has had a terrific season, earning the West division’s nomination for Most Outstanding Player, and he has a pair of tremendous receivers in Eric Rogers (who led the league with 1,448 receiving yards) and Marquay McDaniel (who had 1,038), plus depth beyond them. The big question for the Stamps will be how the ground game holds up with Jon Cornish still injured, though. Trade-deadline acquisition Jerome Messam has been great so far, but he’ll need to keep that up for Calgary to find success Sunday.

Calgary defence: Five interception returns.

The Stampeders’ defence has had a great year, allowing a league-low 16.1 points per game from opposing offences, 19.2 points per game overall (second in the league) and 302.5 yards of offence and 17.0 first downs per game (both also second). They were good against the run (4.6 yards allowed per rush, tied for a league low, and 77.8 rushing yards conceded per game, third in the CFL) and against the pass (7.3 yards allowed per pass, tied for second, and 246.6 passing yards per game, second). They also finished with a plus-eight turnover ratio, second-best in the league. Calgary’s strong at rushing the passer (defensive end Freddie Bishop III had 11 sacks, while fellow DE Charleston Hughes had 10) and at picking him off (defensive back Keon Raymond led the way there with four picks).

Calgary special teams: Three crazy punts.

Punter Rob Maver had a pretty good year, finishing second in the league with a base average of 45.4 yards per punt, but the Stampeders’ coverage teams gave up some big returns, reducing his net to 34.5 yards per punt (eighth in the league). Kicker Rene Paredes was still pretty accurate, but not at the level we’ve previously seen from him; his 87.2 per cent field goal success rate was good, but only sixth amongst qualified kickers. Returner Tim Brown was good on kickoffs (his average of 23.4 yards per kickoff return was third-best in the CFL), but not as strong in the punt return game (averaging just 8.7 yards per punt there, ninth in the league). That’s part of why Calgary traded for Skye Dawson from Edmonton in September; he averaged 12.0 yards per punt return this year, largely with the Eskimos. Brown has been battling injuries, so it’s unclear if he’ll be ready to go, but Dawson looks like a decent option if he isn’t.

Add them up: B.C. 8, Calgary 13.

X-factor: The conditions.

Sunday’s expected to be mostly sunny in Calgary, so snow or rain shouldn’t be a factor, but it will be reasonably cold (a high of 11 degrees Celsius and a low of -2). That could lead to some drops, and it might favour the Stampeders, given that B.C.’s used to playing in a dome.

Prediction: Calgary 31, B.C. 21.