Playoff Preview: Can the Argonauts' QB break the Ticats' home-field advantage?

Welcome back to our Playoff Preview series, an analytical look at each CFL postseason game where we rate each contenders' offence, defence and special teams. First up, Sunday's East semifinal (1 p.m. Eastern, TSN/ESPN/YouTube in countries without broadcast deals), where the 10-8 Hamilton Tiger-Cats host the 10-8 Toronto Argonauts.

Toronto offence: Three veteran quarterbacks: Toronto has a substantial experience edge at quarterback, with three-time Grey Cup champion and 13-year CFL vet Ricky Ray under centre, but that isn't as imposing at it might seem at first glance. Ray has barely played this year, missing the first part of the season thanks to a recovery from shoulder surgery and then remaining on the bench once healthy thanks to Trevor Harris' play. He was only given playing time in Week 19 thanks to Harris' struggles and then received his lone start so far in Week 20, and there are still questions about if he'll be rusty and how healthy he is. He's been okay to date, but far from dominant, and his 20.7 yards gained per possession would tie him with Matt Nichols for 11th if Ray had gained enough overall yards to qualify. Ray's experience may well prove decisive, but it's far from a sure thing.

The rest of the Toronto offence isn't guaranteed to help much, either. While they do have a trio of impressive young receivers (Vidal Hazelton, Tori Gurley and Kevin Elliott), plus the still-dangerous Chad Owens and some other pieces like Canadian running back turned slotback Anthony Coombs, this offence on the whole was mostly mediocre this season. Toronto averaged 24.3 points per game, tied for fifth in the CFL, and the offence contributed 22.0 of those while turning in 327.5 yards per game (both sixth-best). Much of that was on the ground game, which produced just 76.9 rushing yards per game and six rushing touchdowns, both league lows. Granted, the Argos ran less than everyone else, averaging just 15.6 carries per game, but they only gained 4.9 yards per carry (in a three-way tie for fourth), so they weren't particularly effective when they did run.

Toronto was better through the air. The Argos posted league-highs in passing touchdowns (37) and completion percentage (70.3 per cent). However, much of that success came earlier in the year, and they wound up in the middle of the pack in yards per pass (7.8, sixth) and passing yards per game (269.4, fifth). Thus, while their passing game at least has potential, it's far from a guaranteed success.

Toronto defence: Two Canadian linebackers: While the offence certainly wasn't consistently great, the defence is more to blame for the Argos' struggles down the stretch and their eventual third-place finish. On the year, Toronto allowed 16 rushing touchdowns, worst in the league. The Argos also conceded 26.1 points per game to opposing offences (second-worst), 27.7 points per game overall (third-worst) and 348.6 yards per game (fourth-worst). They were particularly vulnerable against the pass, allowing a league-high 23.8 completions per game against, 282.8 passing yards against per game (second-worst), and 31 passing touchdowns (third-worst). Toronto couldn't rush the passer (46 sacks, tied for third-worst) or pick passes off (13 interceptions, second-worst). If those trends continue, the defence may be in for a long day Sunday.

Toronto special teams: Three trick shots: Chad Owens is still one of the league's most dynamic returners, and he led the CFL with an average of 12.6 yards per punt return this year. However, Diontae Spencer was more middling on kickoff returns, averaging 20.6 yards per return. The Argos do have kicker/punter Swayze Waters back from injuries, which should help.

Hamilton offence: Three injured quarterbacks: The Tiger-Cats' offence was great for most of this season, and led the league in a lot of key categories overall (including points per game, 29.4, and yards per pass, 8.9). However, it's trending down recently thanks to injuries to quarterbacks Zach Collaros and Jeff Mathews. That means Hamilton will have to rely on inexperienced pivots Jeremiah Masoli and Jacory Harris. They'll have plenty of help, as there are some great weapons in this offence, but it's not as fearsome as it was with Collaros or Mathews under centre.

Hamilton defence: Five scoring plays: The Ticats' defence has been terrific this season, leading the league in yards allowed per pass (6.8), completion percentage (61.2 per cent), opposing passer rating (78.8) and turnovers (52). They've also converted those turnovers into points, scoring a league-high 184 points off turnovers.

Hamilton special teams: Five onside punts: Hamilton has one of the best punt returners out there in Brandon Banks, a great punter/kicker in Justin Medlock, and they've pulled off some excellent trickery this year, including two successful onside punts for touchdowns.

X-factor: Home field. The Ticats have done very well at the new Tim Hortons Field, but that home field advantage has weakened a little bit this year; they went just 5-4 at home, a change from their unbeaten mark there last season. Will their always-strong crowd support help push them over the top Sunday?

Prediction: Hamilton 28, Toronto 24.

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