Marc Trestman's out in Chicago, but there are long odds against him returning to the CFL in 2015

The Chicago Bears' decision to fire head coach Marc Trestman (and general manager Phil Emery) Monday after two seasons will have plenty of implications for the CFL, but it seems unlikely that Trestman himself will return north of the border this coming season. For one thing, he has two seasons left on his Bears contract, so he could get paid for doing absolutely nothing in 2015. If he does elect to take another coaching job, he'll likely still be in demand as an offensive coordinator or consultant in the NFL or NCAA, jobs that pay better than most CFL head coaching positions. Moreover, even if Trestman was eager to return to being a CFL head coach, there currently aren't any jobs open. Yes, if Trestman decided he wanted to come back to the CFL right away and an owner elected to ditch their current head coach to make that happen, it's theoretically possible we could see Trestman on a CFL sideline in 2015. The odds of all that happening seem like something generated by the Infinite Improbability Drive, though.

First off, there's no urgency for Trestman to land a new job, as the Bears will still be paying him for the next two years. It's quite possible he might coach again this coming year, but he certainly doesn't have to from a financial standpoint. If he does, though, there's likely to still be substantial interest in him at the NFL level. Why is that? Well, for one thing, while Trestman's tenure in Chicago had its problems (he went 5-13 this year and 13-19 overall), there were plenty of issues beyond him, as Emery's firing and the ongoing drama with quarterback Jay Cutler demonstrate. Moreover, Trestman still produced some impressive offensive numbers with the Bears (particularly in 2013, and particularly when using previously unheralded quarterback Josh McCown thanks to Cutler's injuries), suggesting he hasn't lost his offensive touch. In fact, as Greg Cosell wrote for Yahoo earlier this month, Cutler was the wrong sort of quarterback for Trestman's offence, focused on arm strength and anticipation rather than precision and reads. Fortunately for Trestman, there are a lot of more precision-focused quarterbacks out there, and the success he's previously had with relatively-unheralded NFL quarterbacks like Rich Gannon, Jake Plummer and Scott Mitchell could well convince another NFL team (or even an NCAA one; he's worked at that level too) to bring him in as an offensive coordinator.

If Trestman had the choice of working as an NFL offensive coordinator or a CFL head coach, which one would he take? Well, for most people, the clear choice would be NFL OC. It's a higher-profile job that tends to pay better, and it potentially puts you in position for NFL or NCAA head coaching jobs. That doesn't mean everyone will make that decision; for example, Jeff Tedford chose to come to the B.C. Lions this offseason instead of trying to land another NFL or NCAA job. Tedford's American stock was much lower than Trestman's at this point, though, especially considering that he hadn't coached since 2012 before this year and missed most of 2014 with health concerns. Tedford still reportedly had U.S. options, so it seems likely Trestman would have even more.

Another key point in favour of Trestman staying in the U.S. is that he might get another big head coaching job down the road. Yes, that may seem unlikely right now considering how things blew up in Chicago, but as previously mentioned, there were some extenuating circumstances. Moreover, plenty of fired head coaches return to the coordinator ranks, do well there and then get another shot at the big job. Consider Jim Caldwell: he was fired from Wake Forest in 2000 after eight years as a head coach, spent most of a decade as a quarterbacks coach with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts, took over as the Colts' head coach in 2009, was fired in 2011, and spent two years as quarterbacks coach (and later offensive coordinator) with the Baltimore Ravens before becoming Detroit's head coach this year. Now, he has the Lions in the playoffs. Similarly, current Tennessee Titans head coach Ken Whisenhunt was fired as Arizona's head coach after the 2012 season, spent a year as an OC with San Diego, then landed the Titans job, and current Oakland head coach Tony Sparano was fired by Miami after 2011, spent a year with the Jets as an OC, then came to the Raiders as an OL coach before being promoted following the firing of Dennis Allen earlier this season. There are those who have gone from being fired NFL coaches to successful college coaches, too, such as UCLA's Jim Mora Jr.. It doesn't seem too likely that Trestman will be given another NFL HC job right now, but if he's able to go work some magic as an OC, that might change.

Another potential option for Trestman could be working in the American media. There are a bevy of outlets looking for NFL or NCAA commentators, most prominently ESPN and the NFL Network but also the likes of CBS and Fox, and Trestman's highly analytical and quotable approach could make him a good fit as a studio analyst or potentially even a colour guy on game broadcasts. That can lead to jobs, too; it did for Mora, and it did for Trestman's (brief) successor in Montreal, Dan Hawkins. Trestman's probably more likely to wind up as an OC than an analyst, but a media role could be an option for him.

A further obstacle to the idea of Trestman coming north this season is that there aren't any head coaching jobs open. Yes, Trestman's reputation as a CFL coach is impressive enough that a team might consider dumping its current head coach for him, but it seems like there are only a couple of teams that might even take a look at that, and both of those seem like long shots. One would be Trestman's old stomping grounds in Montreal, where the Alouettes entered into an unusual relationship this year, with owner Robert Wetenhall stepping in to hire Tom Higgins. That made it seem like there might be some friction with general manager Jim Popp. However, Popp signed a three-year contract extension in July, and he and Higgins did well to work together and turn the team around from a slow start to an eventual East Final appearance. Yes, the usually-looking-for-a-splash Alouettes might be tempted to try to dump Higgins and get the band back together with Trestman, but Higgins was Wetenhall's hire (so it seems unlikely Wetenhall would intervene to do that, and it seems unlikely Popp would have the power to ditch Higgins for Trestman even if he wanted to), and Higgins would seem to have done well enough to keep his job.

The other possibility might be Ottawa, where general manager Marcel Desjardins has worked with Trestman before (as the assistant GM in Montreal), where the Redblacks would love to make a big splash and where rookie head coach Rick Campbell didn't cover himself in glory in a 2-16 debut season. Ottawa sounds like they want to keep Campbell (albeit with some big staff changes), though, and that's not a really enticing situation. Moreover, it's notable that Trestman would seem unlikely to want a job that's currently occupied; that's not really his personality, and it sets up a potentially disastrous situation both in the locker room and in the media. Thus, either of those CFL possibilities seems remote for this season.

In the longer term, it's of course possible that Trestman might return to the CFL. If things don't work out after a stop or two as a NFL or NCAA OC or a media analyst, and if promising CFL jobs open up, he might elect to come back north of the border. It's notable that Trestman's talked numerous times about how much he enjoyed his CFL stint and how much he enjoyed being a head coach. If he doesn't eventually get another head coaching shot south of the border, he might again look for one in Canada. However, given that NFL and NCAA assistant jobs often pay far more than CFL head jobs and have far more potential for advancement to another big-time job, it would seem likely that Trestman would go for one of those first. We'll see what happens, but the chances of Trestman again pacing a CFL sideline in 2015 seem quite low for now.