Could Lions' HC target Jeff Tedford be a good CFL fit, or are health and recent performance concerns about him justified?

The search for the B.C. Lions' new head coach has gone in a direction few would have predicted at the start, with prominent CFL names such as Paul LaPolice, Dave Dickenson and Orlondo Steinauer falling off the radar or turning down the job and former NCAA/NFL coach Jeff Tedford now looking like the team's primary target. Tedford, a former NCAA head coach at Cal, played in the CFL and briefly worked as a CFL coach alongside B.C. general manager Wally Buono, but hasn't coached north of the border since 1991, so he was off the radar for many. After Tedford parted ways with the NFL's Tampa Bay Buccaneers this offseason, though, Buono demonstrated significant interest in bringing him to B.C., with Matthew Sekeres of TSN 1040 writing that the Lions are "on the verge of hiring" him. Tedford has interest, too, with Lowell Ullrich of The Province writing that Tedford flew in for interviews and meetings with Buono and the Lions' coaches this week, and that he seems set to take the job if the finances can be worked out:

There are certainly elements in Tedford's favour. His CFL experience came a long while ago, but at least he's aware of some of the nuances of the league, unlike most candidates from south of the border. He has a deserved reputation as an offensive innovator and quarterback-groomer (although that last one deserves some further examination, which we'll get to later.) His history with Buono could be a big plus, too. Having such an established general manager in place would likely scare off many, but the friendship and shared philosophies between the two could keep them on the same page. Hiring Tedford would be unusual by recent CFL standards, as most of the coaches picked in the last few years have come from the ranks of CFL coordinators, but some hires of guys who have been out of the league for some time (John Hufnagel, Kent Austin) or had no previous CFL experience (Marc Trestman) have worked out well. Others haven't at all, though; can anyone say "Bart Andrus"? Bringing Tedford in, especially with a league-leading or close-to-league-leading contract, would be risky, but there's definitely some potential for good results too.

There are some massive risks here, though. For one thing, Tedford hasn't done a lot lately. Yes, he generally did an impressive job as the head coach at Cal, where he remains the school's all-time winningest coach (even edging famed former Lion Joe Kapp!). In 2002, he inherited a program that went 1-10 the previous year and hadn't recorded a winning season since 1993; he took them to 7-5 that year, notched a couple of 10-win seasons (including one that tied for first in the then-Pac-10 in 2006), and went 82-57 overall. However, his final three seasons (2010-2012) saw the Golden Bears go 5-7, 7-6 and 3-9. Beyond that, the Golden Bears' cupboard was somewhat bare from a recruiting standpoint near the end of Tedford's career, and it's notable that they went 1-11 under new coach Sonny Dykes in 2013 (largely with Tedford's players) before improving to 5-7 this year as Dykes' recruits started to blossom. Tedford doesn't deserve full blame for what happened after he was fired, especially considering the massive schematic changes from his more pro-style attack to Dykes' Air Raid offence, but it's notable that things didn't look good on a variety of fronts near the end of his tenure.

Moreover, since being fired after the 2012 season, Tedford sat out 2013, and while he was hired as Tampa Bay's offensive coordinator ahead of the 2014 season, he wound up missing the entire regular season thanks to heart problems and attempts to come back too early. That wasn't the first time health concerns popped up; after he was fired from Cal, it was reported that he'd developed walking pneumonia and other health issues during the last years of his tenure there.He says he's fully healthy now, and heart issues haven't stopped Buono (amongst others) from being an effective coach, but health is certainly a concern here. Tedford is only 53, so he could be a CFL coach for a while if things work out, but his past health problems are a mark against him.

Tedford's reputation as a quarterback guru also deserves further examination. He has one absolutely unqualified success on his resume in Aaron Rodgers, and during his career at Fresno State, Oregon and Cal, he developed several others who were good college quarterbacks, including first-round NFL picks Trent Dilfer, Akili Smith, David Carr and Joey Harrington. None of those guys wound up finding huge success in the NFL, though, and while that isn't necessarily Tedford's fault (he wasn't coaching them by then), it's context that should be considered. Beyond that, as this 2012 Sporting News piece by Steve Greenberg illustrates, Tedford never really developed a good quarterback after Rodgers left for the 2005 NFL draft. That adds to his problematic recent history, and shows part of why Cal elected to part ways with him.

Even beyond that, though, the Lions would be buying Tedford's coaching stock at a low point. While that's good on some levels (there's no way he'd come north if he was being offered good college or NFL head coach or likely even offensive coordinator roles, as those typically pay much more), the rest of the coaching world not having a ton of interest in Tedford could be a cautionary sign.

Yes, at one point, Tedford was absolutely good at developing NCAA quarterbacks at the least, and he struck NCAA/NFL gold with Rodgers (whose brother Jordan signed with B.C. in October, oddly enough). Whether he still has what it takes to develop top quarterbacks, and whether his NCAA skills can transfer to the CFL, is much more of an undecided question. (As is if B.C. even really needs to develop a top quarterback; Travis Lulay missed most of this season with health issues, but is just 31 and is an elite talent when healthy. If he can rebound, developing young quarterbacks could still matter for the Lions' depth, but it won't be their biggest issue.) Tedford's successes with quarterbacks certainly count in his favour, but the other side of the ledger has some notable entries too.

In the end, if the Lions wind up hiring Tedford, his success or failure will likely come from his ability or lack thereof to adapt to the CFL and its differences. Tedford did good CFL work decades ago, and the "six-pack" innovation he helped develop remains important today (in fact, it should likely be used more than it currently is), so it's certainly possible that he could figure out how to run a promising offence in this league again. It would have to be a drastic change from most of the offences he's run in the NCAA over the last decades, though; the pro-style looks that worked for Dilfer, Rodgers and Carr aren't going to fly in three-down football. Being a head coach is about more than just developing an offence, too, and Tedford would have to work well with Washington (who showed promise as a first-year DC this past season), with Buono and with the rest of the coaching staff. Hiring him could be an intriuging gamble, and one that could pay off big. It also has the chance to be a massive bust, though. This wouldn't be a safe move at all, but a high-risk, high-reward one. We'll see if the Lions elect to roll the dice.