Will the B.C. Lions be able to get a win over Calgary and join the ranks of the CFL’s elite?

In the early days of this season, the West Division seemed like a likely-prolonged three-team race between the Saskatchewan Roughriders, Calgary Stampeders and B.C. Lions. Now that we're a third of the way through the season, that's still true from a standings perspective: Calgary and Sasatchewan top the division with 5-1 records and B.C. is just one game back at 4-2. There's been a substantial gulf in the level of play between the Lions and the top teams, though; while the Riders have racked up dominant victories and the Stampeders have piled up staggering offensive successes despite using three different quarterbacks, B.C. has been more muddling along, flashing some potential but only coming out with narrow wins against struggling teams such as Winnipeg and losing decisively to Calgary and Toronto. The Lions get to host the Stampeders Saturday night, though (9 p.m. Eastern, TSN/ESPN3), and that game could prove a crucial test of how well they're doing at the one-third pole. If Calgary comes out of Vancouver with an emphatic victory, that might reinforce the idea that there's a two-team elite class at the top of the West and the Lions are a substantial ways behind. If B.C. can pull off a win, though, the Lions are all of a sudden very much in the conversation with the CFL's best.

How probable is a B.C. victory? Well, despite some of their less-than-impressive results to date and their dismal points-per-game numbers (they average just 23.8 points per game), there are some notable numbers for the Lions further into the statistics. The Stampeders and Roughriders have received plenty of praise for their strong ground games with Jon Cornish and Kory Sheets respectively, but before the Calgary-Saskatchewan rushing extravaganza last week, B.C. actually had the league's most efficient rushing offence (5.9 yards per carry, which is still third-best in the CFL). A lot of that comes from running back Andrew Harris, who's picked up 459 rushing yards with a 5.5 yards per carry average, but quarterback Travis Lulay has also been very effective on the ground, collecting 193 rushing yards on 23 attempts (an average of 8.4 yards per carry).

Lulay's been quietly effective on a lot of fronts, actually: the 1466 yards he's thrown for thus far were the second-best total in the league heading into Week Seven, and that's with an impressive completion percentage of 66.1 per cent and a 10/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. B.C. has a deep and impressive receiving corps, with Emmanuel Arceneaux, Nick Moore and Courtney Taylor all recording over 200 receiving yards so far this year (and the first two notching over 300), and Harris is a terrific pass-catching weapon out of the backfield. Overall, the Lions' offence is averaging 358.0 yards per game, fourth-best in the league, so they certainly can move the ball.

The Lions' defence also does a lot of things well. Through six weeks, they led the CFL in yards of offence allowed per game with 282.0. Their closest competitor was Montreal with 325.3, which is a pretty substantial difference. B.C.'s allowed the league's lowest first down total (105), its fewest passing first downs (58) and the lowest gain per pass (6.9 yards). Perhaps most impressively, they're allowing just 192.8 passing yards per game, again a CFL low, and their nearest competitor there is Edmonton with a much higher 233.8 passing yards per game. The B.C. defence is also good against the run, though, allowing 5.0 yards per carry (tied for second-best). Overall, the 23.7 points they're allowing per game is the league's third-best total. Both their passing and rushing defences will be tested against the Stampeders' powerful and balanced offence, but there's a lot to like about what the Lions have done on defence thus far.

Really, the biggest flaw with B.C. thus far is that they haven't been able to convert offensive production into points. Despite moving the ball well, the Lions have struggled in the red zone and have too often settled for field goal attempts. If they can change that tendency at home Saturday, they may well be able to find success. It won't be easy, as the Stampeders are strong on both offence and defence and are coming off an impressive win over the previously-unbeaten Roughriders, but it's certainly not implausible that B.C. could pull off a victory here. If they do, they may well work their way into the ranks of the CFL's elite teams and make an already-interesting West Division battle even more notable.