Playoff Preview: Can the Tiger-Cats keep their playoff run alive against their Toronto rivals?
Continuing on with our Playoff Preview series, here's a look at how Sunday's historic East Final (1 p.m. Eastern, TSN/RDS/NBCSN), the first such clash between the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Toronto Argonauts since 1986, sets up.
Hamilton offence: Four multiple-quarterback attacks: While the Tiger-Cats emerged with a 19-16 overtime victory last weekend in Guelph, their offence wasn't incredibly dominant along the way. In fact, they didn't get much at all done early on in the game, only coming to life down the stretch. There were promising moments, especially with substitute quarterback Dan LeFevour under centre, but there are still major questions about this unit. Can they establish a solid ground game with their running backs? Can Henry Burris make enough good decisions and avoid the "Bad Hank" moments he's been known for? Perhaps most importantly, can Hamilton get their offence going early on in the game? We'll find out the answers Sunday.
Hamilton defence: Three star defensive backs: This unit actually looked quite good against Montreal, allowing just 13 points in regulation, but part of that was thanks to the brutal wind. They did give up plenty of yards, especially on the ground, where Alouettes' RB Tyrell Sutton collected 142 yards on 21 carries (6.8 yards per carry), and that's been a season-long issue; the Tiger-Cats' 5.7 yards conceded per rush was the league's third-worst total. They can be beaten in the passing game too, though, as the 62.3 per cent completion rate they allowed was third-worst and the 8.2 yards they gave up per pass
was fourth-worst. There are some playmakers on this unit, but there are also some concerning tendencies.
Hamilton special teams: Four missed field goal returns: The special teams did a pretty decent job in adverse conditions last Sunday, with Luca Congi hitting two out of three field goals despite the wind and Josh Bartel getting off some good punts (although his average was just 33.5 yards, a lot of that was thanks to punting into the fierce Guelph winds). However, the return game didn't do much; there are talented players there, including Brandon Banks, but he only got to return three punts (for an average of 8.7 yards per punt), and Onrea Jones wasn't much better (12 yards on one punt return, 14 on one kick return). We'll see if the Tiger-Cats can get better return production this week.
Toronto offence: Five all-star quarterbacks: While the Argonauts' offence will undoubtedly miss star running back Chad Kackert, who's out for the year with a broken ankle, there's still a lot to like about it. Jerious Norwood looks like a capable replacement, and even if he struggles, this is a team that completed more passes and ran less than anyone else during the regular season. This offence runs through quarterback Ricky Ray, and if he can come anywhere close to the 77.2 per cent completion rate (with 21 touchdowns and just two interceptions) he posted during the season, it's going to be a long day for the Hamilton defence.
Toronto defence: Three complaints about the Bills: The Toronto defence was crucial to their Grey Cup victory last year, but that unit has fallen off this year, perhaps thanks to the massive offseason turnover it endured. The Argos were last in the league in offensive yards allowed per game (389.7) and passing yards allowed per game (298.2), and they tied for last in yards allowed per pass (8.7). They also recorded just 38 sacks this year, second-lowest in the league. However, this defence has demonstrated an impressive bend-but-don't-break tendency, buckling down in the red zone and conceding just 25.4 points per game (third-best in the league), and defensive coordinator Chris Jones is quite innovative, so this team might be able to get some big plays on defence despite Hamilton's deceptive offence.
Toronto special teams: Four unusually-named kickers: Argonauts' kicker Swayze Waters missed much of the first part of this season thanks to an injury in the season opener, but he's been very good when he has played, especially in the punting game, where his 46.5-yard average was the league's best this year. His field-goal performance has been less consistent, as he made just 18 of his 25 attempts (72 per cent), but he looked good down the stretch, going four-for-four in his final game against Winnipeg (like most of the Argos' starters, he didn't play in the season-ending game against Montreal). A bigger question for the Argonauts may be the return game. Reigning Most Outstanding Player Chad Owens certainly has plenty of ability, but he's been less impressive this year than he was last season, with his kick return average dropping from 22.4 yards to 18.9 and his punt return average dropping from 10.8 to 7.5. Still, Owens has game-breaking talent, and if he can show that off, special teams may be an edge for the Argos.
Add them up: Toronto 12, Hamilton 11
X-factor: The crowd. Demand for tickets has been strong enough that the Argos have opened up the upper bowl, and over 40,000 could be in attendance. However, that crowd won't all be wearing double blue. Plenty of Tiger-Cats fans are expected to make their way to this one. We'll see just how prominent their presence is and if the Argonauts will have a home-field advantage or not. Still, there's enough going for Toronto that they'll be favoured here regardless of what happens in the stands.
Prediction: Toronto 35, Hamilton 31.