Why Pascal Siakam's driving efficiency has declined

On this edition of Spotlight, Samson Folk discusses the reasons Pascal Siakam hasn't been finishing in the areas he usually excels in and how the Raptors can get the most out of him.

Video Transcript

SAMSON FOLK: We've slowly watched Pascal Siakam lose some of his playmaking and scoring punch over the course of this season. The team has changed. His role has changed, and he had been burdened with an almost unprecedented level of minutes and responsibilities. More than anything, though, his driving has changed. Let's talk about why.

Before we get into it, though, make sure to like the video, subscribe, all that good stuff. This is "Spotlight." I'm Samson Folk. Enjoy.

So let's talk numbers first. Over the first 27 games this season, Pascal Siakam had been driving 17 times a game, scoring in the double digits, drawing a lot of free throws, creating a lot of opportunities, and using the slower post-up as a counter to all of that danger.

In the games since, which is over 30, his driving has fallen off a cliff, going from 17 per game down to 11. The over 10 points per game he used to score on drives is now down to around 6. And most importantly, perhaps, the unassisted makes at the rim that used to be at 70% are now at 42%.

Why are these numbers important? Well, it's really hard to get good looks or any looks, for that matter, at the rim in the NBA. If you have guys who can teleport themselves there like Siakam was doing in the first half of the season, you're basically guaranteeing good offense. Pascal shoots better than 70% at the rim, for what that's worth, and Siakam dropping off significantly in this type of creation means he's scoring less and attracting less attention from defenses. So overall, he's creating less for the team.

And a very important wrinkle is that when you drive, a lot of the times the help will come from the bottom of the defense. You'll recognize the term low man and help side and all this kind of stuff for a reason. When you draw those types of rotations, it creates lay downs and playmaking opportunities close to the basket. This is Siakam's best type of playmaking, and he's genuinely elite at it.

As his drives have become less common and his post-ups more common, help has started to come from the top. This means that Siakam's reads are typically being made one pass away above the 3-point line, or he's being asked to make a skip-pass read against a weak-side zone. These aren't Siakam's strong suits or the Raptors'. The Raptors are one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA, so not only is forcing the ball out to the perimeter a huge win for the defense but it's also not really in Pascal Siakam's wheelhouse.

It's led to him creating less points out of assists, less opportunities for his teammates. And you're typically OK with turnovers scaling up if more opportunities are being created, but what's happened is that Pascal's turnovers have actually went up as the opportunities have gone down.

So this is all happening. Why is it happening, though? Well, here's the context. Over the past 140 games, basically nobody else in the NBA has played more minutes than Pascal Siakam. He's also been near the top of the league in closeouts. He's been near the top of the league in miles traveled, and he's been near the top of the league in isolations. He's asked to do a lot on the NBA floor, and he's had to navigate an injury to his groin all the while. When you compare Siakam at the start of the season to Siakam now, it looks like he's playing in mud. He's a lot slower.

And while Siakam has worked incredibly hard to refine his own ball skills and done a very good job of doing so, the bulk of his game is built off of his special movement skills. When he's asked to create just based off of his handle and the threat of his jump shot, he's not going to put fear into the hearts of opponents. He can have good games, even great ones, of course, but if this is the way he's going to play, he's not an actual offensive engine.

With the Raptors trading for Jakob Poeltl, it's become more important for Siakam to become a spot-up shooter in the Raptors' starting lineup, and we've seen the Raptors shift to becoming a VanVleet-led offense through the pick and roll, which has been a good decision. Don't get me wrong. But Siakam is being asked to lean harder and harder into his jumper.

It's been nice that he's hit over 40% of his long mid-range looks during this dip in play, and he's hit 38% of his 3's since Poeltl arrived in Toronto, but these numbers would be great if they were in addition to a robust driving game. As it currently stands, these are modest offensive numbers. It's been difficult.

One of the coolest things about Siakam's All-NBA season in 2022 was his robust proficiency from the short mid-range. That's where the bulk of his shots have come from over the past few years. Nearly 4 out of 10 of his shots are coming from that 4- to 14-foot range this season and last season, and to see it drop from 49% last year to 42% this year is no doubt going to have a massive effect on his efficiency.

Flat out, he's just seen more contests in that part of the floor than he has in the past, and part of that is relative to his lack of blow-bys. Over the course of the NBA season, he's 12th in the NBA in drives, and keep in mind a lot of those numbers are propped up by his robust first half. Over the course of the season, though, when it comes to blow-bys, he's 99th in the NBA. The burst has been lacking, and that clearly shows in that stat.

If you want silver linings, Siakam can weaponize more of his elite interior passing by carving out a much better pick-and-roll chemistry with Jakob Poeltl. Siakam is also playing a lot less minutes, so that should be less of a physical toll on him, and he also is good enough as a shooter to have a very good run in that department, even if it is just a run.

My worry, though, is that Siakam won't regain his elite athleticism until he gets an offseason to heal, to get his body right. And the Raptors look like a team that is going to be in the playoff picture, and if they want to compete in a series and compel the fans and the other team to bring their best stuff, they have to have a healthy, effective Siakam. This team was obviously built to have their best kick at the can in 2024, so this isn't the end of the world, but it is worrisome.

Well, that's the update on Siakam. Here's to hoping for good things. Maybe he can turn it around rapidly as we approach the end of the season and the playoffs. Who knows?

If you like this, I've been Sampson Folk, and if you want to keep up with the rest of my work, you can do so at Raptors Republic and the "Spotlight" playlist on this YouTube channel. Hope you enjoyed it. Thanks for tuning in. I'll see you.