No evidence to show these Maple Leafs are different

The Maple Leafs will be judged on what they do in the playoffs, where the team's superstar core have repeatedly struggled to make an impact but a shaky start to the regular season, including some worrying underlying metrics, suggest Toronto is no more prepared than before for the tests that await.

Video Transcript

NICK ASHBOURNE: Welcome to "Shop Volume." I'm Nick Ashbourne with Anthony Petrielli. Anthony, I think we've tried to avoid being a how does this affect the Leafs? type of show. Always dangerous, but it is time for us to have our how does this affect the Leafs? moment. The Leafs are actually a pretty--

ANTHONY PETRIELLI: It is time.

NICK ASHBOURNE: --fascinating team right now. This is a club that, if you look at just the raw points, they're on an 102.5 pace, which would be, like, slightly disappointing but not disastrous by any means. At the same time, this is a group that's been outshot at five-on-five, outscored at five-on-five, doesn't have much of a goal differential, has won only five games in regulation through over a quarter of the season. Where do you stand with, I don't know, kind of the basic question of, like, how good is this group right now?

ANTHONY PETRIELLI: There's two-- obviously there's two ways this can go. It's like last year through 20 games, they were 10-- or they were 10, 6, and 4, and this year they're 11, 6, and 3. So they've actually started slightly better than they have in previous years, at least pointswise. Although to your point, there might be some underlying issues that are maybe pointing towards a bit of a lesser direction.

At the same time, they're still on pace for 100-plus points, which isn't nothing. And the reality is, I mean, this is a team that's getting, by and large, judged by what they do in the playoffs. So provided they make the playoffs-- like, which, I think they're still very comfortably going to do-- nothing else really matters. I mean, they could hit 130 points, and, like, no one in Toronto is going to care, right? It's all about what have you done for me in the playoffs?

Now, what I will say on the glass-half-full side would be they're collecting these points, and lately they've been actually, by and large, doing it in spite of their top two players. Like, Matthews and Marner are legitimately struggling right now. Like, they are. Like, that line should be carrying the mail. They pair them together to really set the tone and drive play for everything that they do. I think Marner hasn't scored in eight games at this point. I think Matthews has points in, like, two of his last seven. And, you know, beyond that, like, they're, like, actively getting outplayed to the point where, like, they're not getting split up to, like, shake up the team. They're getting split up because it's not working.

Their second line with Nylander and Bertuzzi and Tavares was awesome. Like, they were the team's best line for the past month, and the only reason they're getting split up is to facilitate how bad the de facto top line has been.

So in saying that, do you think Matthews and Marner are just going through a bit of a rough stretch some 20 games into the season, early on hockey, et cetera, et cetera, or do you think they're actually bad hockey players? Because if they're good and they're going to end up turning it around and playing like the players they essentially have been for five-plus years running each, then, I mean, the team picking up points in spite of that while they've fielded injuries on defense and their top two guys are not playing well really doesn't leave them in a bad spot.

NICK ASHBOURNE: No. Theoretically no. I think the defensive injuries are a huge deal, right? Like, yes, the Matthews and Marner component, you believe in that talent. You believe they're going to bounce back. And to be honest, you kind of believe they're going to bounce back together. Like, they are sort of the perfect fit for each other on the line the way they're defensively responsible, the way that Marner is always looking for the pass and Matthews, at his core, is looking for the shot. Like, they work extremely well as linemates. They're probably going to come back together and have a great deal of success at some point.

The defense is where things are a little bit dicey, especially with Giordano going out. We don't know exactly what his timeline looks like. You know, the Maple Leafs being in a position where that injury is a big deal kind of says a lot in terms of where their blue line. Like, that-- he should be very much a complementary player, and he's had to be more than that.

At that time of the Timothy Liljegren injury, that seemed like a big deal.

ANTHONY PETRIELLI: Coupled with Liljegren though. Like, I don't think Giordano injury is a big deal if Liljegren is healthy. But--

NICK ASHBOURNE: No, but now you're looking at they have three defensemen they trust right now, realistically. And I want to give Jake McCabe some credit because he was not good out of the gate, but since he's been back from injury, he's looked significantly better.

So, you know, you feel good about Rielly-Brodie. You know, Brodie's had some dicey games lately, but generally you do. McCabe is good. But then, you know, obviously Klingberg being in the situation he's in, which is up in the air and you don't really think you're going to see him again, at least not for the foreseeable future.

That's where you worry about the Maple Leafs is, like, can they put together a functional line? Because right now you're going to rely on guys that have dubious track records, guys-- you know, Conor Timmins doesn't have much of a track record. He hasn't looked great since coming back. You know, Simon Benoit has actually been better than you'd expect but not the kind of guy you want to lean on. Lagesson-- like, for them to take the step out of good team that is going to kind of work its way to the playoffs to team that other teams would have to worry about, there has to be a move there.

ANTHONY PETRIELLI: I guess the ultimate question for them kind of tying those two things together is, one, how much of their general play and numbers that you reference, is it really just because Matthews and Marner need to play better? And I would argue a lot because not only are they really important players for the team but they also log massive minutes. Like, both of them are in the top 10 in average forward time on ice per game. Like, they trust-- like not only do they count on those guys for a lot but they count on them in heavy minutes. So those guys playing a lot and also not doing well in those minutes that they're playing a lot is a huge, I think, domino effect to everything.

And then that really just leaves them, you know, those two guys sorting it out and playing better and to the expectations that they've set and everyone's set for them and that they've earned really just leaves them in the spot that I think we all thought they'd be in, in which case they need to add to their defense. I don't think anyone went into the season looking at that team saying that's it. That defense is set. They don't have to do anything. Like, I think they were always at the point where everyone looked at the roster. They need at least one top-four defenseman.

How much more do they need? Do they need two? is a real question at this point. Maybe not top four, but do they need a top-four defenseman and, like, a quality third-pairing guy kind of thing? But, you know, a few weeks ago they added Bobby McMann to the fourth line and sat Ryan Reaves, and it was the first time I looked at their team and went, that's a four-line team.

NICK ASHBOURNE: Yeah, and the third line too. I think, like, bringing Nick Robertson up has made a huge difference. And we know he's had injury troubles, and it's hard to say, oh, over the course of the whole season, he'll make a difference in the playoffs.

But for the first time moving Domi inside and getting Robertson on that line, like, this is a credible scoring threat from the bottom six, which has been a massive problem for the Leafs for years, to be honest. And, like, you know, because of their cap situation, it's hard for them to afford quality bottom-six forwards and put together those lines that work. And that line has some defensive issues to be sure but is one of the more encouraging groups we've seen in terms of the offensive threat it can provide, you know, in some of those games where a Marner-Matthews pairing doesn't get going for whatever reason or, as is the case recently, William Nylander hits, like, 14 posts. Like, you do sometimes need your bottom six to pick you up, and the Maple Leafs now with that group look a little bit more like a team that can have that happen, especially if they sit Reaves and have a Kampf, Gregor, McMann type of fourth line that could chip in the odd goal.

ANTHONY PETRIELLI: And they were legit. And the third line, to your point, was the first time where, you know, that trio was united. Prior to that, I sat there and looked at them and essentially the third line and thought to myself, like, what exactly do you do here? Because you're not good enough defensively, and you're not good enough offensively. But with Robertson and Domi going back to center, which is where he should play, it's a scoring line, like, and that's fine.

Your third line can be a checking line or it can be a scoring line, but it can't be neither. Like, it has to be one of the two. And so the scoring line either adds secondary scoring to support your top guys or it's a checking line that takes off some of the pressure from your top guys, but you can't be-- when you're a middling third line, I think that's the worst spot to be. So just the fact that they have a utility that everybody understands, I think you can work with that.

So all that to say is, again, Matthews and Marner figuring it out, and I think a lot-- I think there's a few things going on there. One, they're used to having a digger on their line, and they don't have that anymore. Matthew Knies is a rookie. He's still very much figuring out the league. It's not a shot at him at all. I think expecting a rookie to go in and dig for two established stars that are getting paid a ton of money and to set the table for them is an unreasonable thing to do, and Knies doesn't exactly play to that profile. Like, he himself is more of a skill player. He's not someone that you look at and just say, like, your primary job is to be F1 on the forecheck and to go to the net. Like, he too wants to make plays. So I think he's kind of caught in a little bit of a weird spot.

And also, like, those guys just need to do more. I mean, Marner is just struggling to break out. Matthews is just not instilling his will on games. And, you know, he is the highest-paid player in the league, and part of that pressure comes, like, with when you hop over the boards, you need to do things. And, you know, you were just in the rink for the game last night. When he hopped over the boards, did you ever feel it? Because I've seen tons of top players, you know, when McKinnon's going, when McDavid's going, and that's the category he himself has classed and put himself in. When those guys hop the boards when they're playing, like, you feel it in the arena. Like, everyone knows that they're on the ice, and something is going to happen, and it's just not happening.

I think where fans are frustrated right now is watching those guys play so much because if you were just watching raw last night-- and I don't know if you were-- how much you had stats going on or how you watched. Were you sitting there going the Leafs' three best forwards were Matthews, Marner, and Nylander?

NICK ASHBOURNE: I mean, no. And I think Nylander, he had some chances--

ANTHONY PETRIELLI: But they played he most.

NICK ASHBOURNE: --so it could have been a very different game.

ANTHONY PETRIELLI: But they played the most, right?

NICK ASHBOURNE: For sure.

ANTHONY PETRIELLI: Like, those three guys led their forwards in ice time, and they were not the three best forwards. And to your point, Nylander hit some posts, and he was generally dangerous. It's not to, like, slag his game or anything. I just don't think anyone was watching it going those were their three best players. I don't think anyone was watching the first 17 games saying Marner was better than Nylander, but Marner was playing more than him every night.

NICK ASHBOURNE: Yeah.

ANTHONY PETRIELLI: So I think that's where fans get frustrated. Like, why are these guys playing so much? And then it devolves into other conversations when, in reality, if, like, those guys just play the way that they are capable of, I think a lot of it kind of just smooths out for their team.

NICK ASHBOURNE: Yeah, the reality here is that there's an enormous amount of proof of concept that this core group of forwards can get you through a regular season, can get you enough points to make the playoffs, can-- you know, a hundred-point-plus seasons. Like, and I don't think there's a real reason to believe that can't happen again, especially if they get a little healthier on the blue line and maybe make some additions.

The question, as always, is going to be what is the group going to do in the playoffs? I think it's fair to say that, so far, they haven't done anything to make Maple Leafs fans believe that it's going to be a different situation. That doesn't mean that it can't be or it won't be, but nothing in this first quarter of the season says, oh, this Maple Leafs team is different.