Looking ahead to possible NHL playoff matchups in the East

There could be eight teams with 100 points in the NHL's Eastern Conference, setting up a fascinating first round.

Video Transcript

JUSTIN CUTHBERT: Let's get into it then because we wanted to do a little simulation, right? So we're talking about how brilliant this is. And I think the best way to start this discussion is with the Tampa Bay Lightning. They're a point behind Boston for the third spot in the Atlantic Division. So lots to play for.

They could get as high as-- I mean, they probably can't catch Florida at this point. They're 14 points behind. But they could get they could surpass the Leafs in a world in which the Leafs fall apart and Tampa goes on an incredible run. But as we've discussed, I think there are third gear team. They know they don't need to push for something because they're the most postseason-ready team in the entire league, being back-to-back Stanley Cup champions.

But if they do fall into the first wild card position, which is the position they're in right now, they will cross over to the Metropolitan. And therefore, the Leafs, the Panthers, the Bruins, they're not going to have to deal with the Tampa Bay Lightning, which would be great, of course, for those teams. But it would be very, very harsh on the Carolina Hurricanes, who are second in the conference right now with 100 points, having a spectacular season, really the standard in the Metropolitan Division this year, even though the Rangers have caught them here over the last couple of games.

But that would be just brutal if Carolina drew the Tampa Bay Lightning in round one. And we could see-- it wouldn't be an upset, because I think Tampa would probably be favored in that series. But we could see the number two seed go down and everything become wide open in the entire Eastern Conference if Carolina draws Tampa Bay in round one.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Would it be brutal? I remember last week, we were discussing-- was it last week or the week before, we were discussing all of these contending teams. And I guess just in the way that they might look in the playoffs. And I think I mentioned Carolina at one point.

You were saying with the way that they play, they're a little bit more-- how can I put this?

JUSTIN CUTHBERT: I think we said you're trying to put a tiger in a cage. They're the team that could handle a Florida, a Toronto, or a Tampa, given the way that they play defensively and structurally.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: That's exactly it. So I don't know if the Carolina Hurricanes might actually see that as a brutal situation. Well, I guess the only thing, really, is that because Tampa is so good, that series could go seven games. And then going forward after that, any other series they go into, I mean, they'll have already gone through a seven-game series. But they might be a little bit more fatigued.

But you know what, in the playoffs, maybe some guys like the idea of going through those motions and playing seven games and just being in it, as opposed to winning a series quickly and then having a longer layoff than some. And then you're trying to get back into a rhythm. So it really depends on how you're wired, I guess.

But I think, while I would still pick the Tampa Bay Lightning in a series over the Carolina Hurricanes, because I know what we've seen from the Lightning over the last few years, I think the Carolina Hurricanes, they wouldn't look at a series against Tampa and groan. I think they'd go into it with all the confidence in the world that they could get the win over them.

And wouldn't it be something to see the Carolina Hurricanes, they're the ones who are the giant slayers, a team that has been trying so hard to get back to the Final or get back to the Conference Final with the team that they've been able to build? They have one of the better coaches in Rod Brind'Amour and a great core of players there. If they're the team that knocks off the Tampa Bay Lightning, that could easily be a passing of the torch situation.

And maybe that propels the Hurricanes to a Stanley Cup Final appearance. So that could be a very interesting series.

JUSTIN CUTHBERT: I think it would be a spectacular series. I think you're right on that. I wonder what the best time is to get Tampa here, because I think, obviously, they're not as well-positioned as they were last year. They managed to pick up a couple of third line guys in Nick Paul and Brandon Hagel, who maybe haven't been home runs just yet, but you'd think are going to be quality third line contributors for them. And that really was the difference for Tampa, having that third line that could dominate in the playoffs as well.

But is it best to get them early, or is it best to get them late? Do you think this team could run out of gas in the third round? If you're the Florida Panthers and you meet Tampa in the third round, is that the best time to get them? Or is Carolina fully healthy, ready to go, not compromised in any way, is that the best time to try and beat the Tampa Bay Lightning?

I think it's a fascinating question, because I'm not sure if this is a team that-- well, it's clearly a team that can be competitive from rounds through four, given the fact that they've won their last eight series. But right now in this moment of time, is Tampa, fully rested, ready to go, is that more dangerous than when they really get that motor running and they're starting to work downhill on teams, they're starting to feel themselves again? Is that the worst time to get them?

I wonder at this point if it's good for Carolina to knock them off early, perhaps, then get either the Rangers of the Penguins in the next round. And then maybe they're off and running it off to a Stanley Cup Final.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: I guess that's a good way of looking at it, just battling them at the beginning when they're still trying to find their playoff legs.

JUSTIN CUTHBERT: Florida gave them a test last year. So right off the bat, and then it was like-- and once they got through that, it was like, well, no one's beating them now.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: And considering how-- I'm thinking of games they've had against the Canadiens and the Leafs beating them as well. The Lightning are still trying to sharpen themselves ahead of the playoffs. Getting them at a point where--

If you're any team that plays against Tampa Bay and you beat them in game one of that series as Tampa still trying to find itself and they have to play behind the eight ball, I think you find yourself at a complete advantage over the Tampa Bay Lightning. If you draw them at any point, you have to knock them off their perch right away. Even if they find their switch, it might be too late for them.

If you give them any type of breathing room in a playoff series. No team should like the idea of being down in a series against anybody. We know we've seen it with different teams. The Tampa Bay Lightning are not a team I want to be 2-0 or 3-1 against. If you're Carolina and you find yourself there, you might as well just wrap it up.

If you're Carolina, you have to win. Any team that plays against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the playoffs this year, you win game one. Have Tampa chase the game. Let them be aggressive if they have to. But hold the advantage. And go on with that. Do not let them win game one. If you let them find their playoff groove in any way, it's curtains for you, because we know what they can do in the postseason.

JUSTIN CUTHBERT: Huge postseason for the Carolina Hurricanes. They've been knocking on the door. They haven't really been able to do anything though, impressively in the postseason over these last couple of years. I think this is a big year. I think it's open for them. But the path gets a lot more complicated if it is indeed the Tampa Bay Lightning who come fourth in the Atlantic division and have to cross over.

Quickly, if it is that, if it is Carolina-Tampa Bay, that's great. It's likely going to be the Rangers and Pittsburgh, regardless. I mean, the Rangers could still catch Carolina. They're both at 100 points right now. The Rangers only have one game in hand. So it's very possible that the Rangers still win the Metro, and everything that we just talked about would be sort of invalidated. But as it stands now, I think Carolina is worth being projected as the number two, which leaves the Rangers and Pittsburgh in another series that TNT or ESPN will be loving with Sidney Crosby in a major market.

I mean, first round in the NHL, Stanley Cup playoffs, undefeated, it's shaping up really well. Any initial thoughts on the Rangers and Penguins potentially playing in round one, who you might lean toward there?

JULIAN MCKENZIE: I think I'm going to lean towards the Rangers this year. I learned my lesson from believing in the Pittsburgh Penguins last year. And that really burned me when it came time for them to play in the first round. I'm still very jilted about that personally.

But in all seriousness, I think the way the Rangers are just built, that was my whole point with the Igor Shesterkin Hart Trophy case in the first place. I think he's done an exceptional job in keeping that team afloat. But I also think with the pieces he has in front of him and on defense, this is a team that is capable of winning games, not to mention they have some good coaching from Gerard Gallant.

So I think the Rangers, with the way that they're built right now, they could knock off a Pittsburgh Penguins team which has done well, but they're clearly on the other side of that cup window. And this may very well be a last dance for Crosby and Letang and Malkin and some of those other guys.

And I mean, goaltending will have to save them. It let them down last year. They cannot afford to have a Tristan Jarry situation where he does not play well in a playoff series, or the Penguins are done. But I just think the Rangers are going to go into it with better goaltending. And everything else is a little bit better, offensively, defensively for them as well. So I could see the Rangers winning that series, if it ends up being the case, in like six or seven games.

I could see the Pittsburgh Penguins not going down without a fight. But I think this is the year the Rangers kind of put an end to all those Pittsburgh Penguins teams that terrorized the rest of the Eastern Conference, thinking they were done. But they found ways to go on these lengthy runs that culminated in another trip for Sidney Crosby. So I think the Rangers would get the win.

JUSTIN CUTHBERT: I think these teams are pretty similar. Jarry's been great, but we have some questions about him. I don't think we have those questions about Shesterkin who's probably going to win the Vezina Trophy and is probably going to be great in the postseason as well. I think they're two of the better coaches in the league with Gerard Gallant and Mike Sullivan.

I think Gerard Gallant is the only person who could wrest that Jack Adams away from Darryl Sutter, given the job that he's done taking a Rangers team who didn't make the postseason last year and making them a 100-point team with nine games to spare is very, very impressive.

I'm still trying to figure out both these teams, though. I don't think they're as complete as the two teams we just talked about. I would lean toward the experience of a Crosby and a Malkin and Letang. But I think Shesterkin, I think you're right. I think he's that X factor. I just have confidence in him out-playing his counterpart.

And if it comes down-- if it is an even series, it's going to probably come down to goaltending. And I feel like I'd give the Rangers the edge there, at least in my initial look as well.

Let's go over to the Atlantic side, where things, again, with Tampa Bay potentially leaving that division, very, very interesting for Florida, Toronto, and Boston as well. If it is Tampa that comes fourth, Florida is going to win the presidents-- not the President's Trophy. They're going to win the Eastern Conference. So they're going to get the lowest seed, which is going to be the Washington Capitals.

I will say, the Washington Capitals are closing in on Pittsburgh, who's lost four in a row. So it's possible Washington gets in there and upsets everything we just talked about. But I think the most plausible scenario here is that Florida faces Washington in the first round. And I think that's something they earned.

I mean, you mentioned 100 points, eight 100-point teams. That being said, I still think Washington is the worst playoff team in the Eastern Conference. And Florida certainly deserves that match-up if they indeed get it. I would heavily, heavily favor Florida.

Washington's had difficulty with goaltending. Washington doesn't seem to be the best defensive team, at least in my mind. We're talking about a 60-goal difference in terms of goal differential separating Florida and Washington at this point. I think if there is one lopsided opening round match-up where it stands right now, it would be Florida over Washington, despite the differences in historical presence, I guess, or just the context of the team being a playoff-ready or playoff-experienced team. But I just think Florida will walk through Washington, if given that opportunity.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: I see sweep potential if that series comes to fruition. I should also say. Even if there are situations where, with so many games left, a lot of these different things we're talking about could basically be invalidated, let's just consider today's episode a dress rehearsal for when we actually have to talk about the playoffs and who's going to play gets to.

JUSTIN CUTHBERT: Projections.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: That's how I'm seeing today.

JUSTIN CUTHBERT: Projections.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: These are just projections, yeah. It's a dress rehearsal. So that way, we know what we're talking about it a couple of weeks time. I think the Florida Panthers should be able to mop the floor of the Washington Capitals.

Let's talk about the Pittsburgh Penguins being on the other side of the-- I said cup window, but I should have said stairwell, I guess. You walk up the stairwell to be great. And then you go down at the end of your lifespan or whatever. The Capitals, I think of all the teams, I think they're completely on the other side.

The goaltending has been a huge question mark with them with Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek not necessarily grasping hold of the number one spot in goal for them. They really could have used some more goaltending help at the deadline to really help their case. Not to mention, yes, the Caps have Alexander Ovechkin, one of the greatest goal scorers we've ever seen, if not the greatest goal scorer we've ever seen.

They have to go up against a stacked Florida Panthers roster who-- I've said it on the show before. They have the best forward corps, I think, of definitely the Eastern Conference, maybe of the entire league. They might have the best forward corps. The only other team that could rival them is the Colorado Avalanche.

I think the Florida Panthers, a team that has not won a playoff series since 1996, not only could they get a win over Washington, they might be able to sweep them in that first round. And how sweet would it be? We could be in a situation where two teams who have not won playoff series in decades could win in the first round.

And I think there's a better chance it happens in Florida, maybe a little bit more so than Toronto. But Florida should have no problem disposing of the Caps.

JUSTIN CUTHBERT: Yeah, the only thing that would scare me from predicting a sweep is that Sergei Bobrovsky probably has a stinker in there somewhere. If there's one thing to be concerned of when you're looking at the Panthers, who've won seven in a row, 9 and 1 in their last 10, have won 3 of every 4 games all season long, are on pace to score a ridiculous amount of goals, the only thing that's sort of holding you back, I think, is the fact that Sergei Bobrovsky is not playing particularly well right now.

And they've had to go to Spencer Knight a few times just recently in relief and to get them through some games. But every time they fall behind, they just erase their problems. And that's maybe not the recipe for success in the postseason. But I think it would be enough to get through a team like the Washington Capitals who, as you mentioned, are heading down that stairwell.

That leaves us with the final projected match-up and maybe the most-- not the most likely, but becoming more and more likely as we go through the rest of the season here, Toronto and Boston again in round one. It's been a nightmare for the Maple Leafs. It is a house of horrors, TD Garden, for the Maple Leafs. I've seen it with my own eyes. I've seen them wilt under pressure quite a few times.

But if there is a time to get the Boston Bruins if you're the Toronto Maple Leafs, it is right now. It is right now with the way that team is playing, with the way Matthews and Marner are playing. But also, Boston, despite an amazing season, 95 points in 71 games-- they're on pace to smash their projected total. They are having a great season. But are they as good as they once were?

I tend to believe that they're not. It's not Tuukka Rask anymore, it's Jeremy Swayman. Patrice Bergeron still can shut down anyone, but can he shut down all four of Toronto's lines? There's not four of him, right?

JULIAN MCKENZIE: No.

JUSTIN CUTHBERT: So I think this is-- at any time, to get them is now. And I think if the Leafs were to go on a long run, beating the boogeyman, vanquishing the boogeyman early might set them up for the best possible scenario for success moving forward. So I think this is the match-up the Leafs should want.

They just beat Tampa. They've had some competitive games with Florida. They had a bad loss against Florida with a blown lead on the second half of a back-to-back. But if you're going to get anyone, I think you want Boston right now because of what the match-up looks like but also what it might do for you psychologically if you finally get that first round victory and you finally do it against Boston.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: You've described it perfectly. The only other way I could describe it is, we've all played-- well, both of us, I imagine, we've both played video games at some point in our lives.

JUSTIN CUTHBERT: Yep.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: And we've come across that one level with that boss that keeps just beating us down every single time. You get frustrated. You put the game down for a little while. You do other things. You come back to it. You try to play it again. You lose again.

You start thinking, OK, well, what the hell do I do to get over this final level so I could beat this damn game? And then you finally go back to it after the 67th time. And you finally get over the hump. And you find a way to win.

This is pretty much what the Toronto Maple Leafs have to do against the Boston Bruins. They've had how many kicks at the can against that franchise? It has not worked to this point. This is the time for them to do it.

The two questions I have about the Toronto Maple Leafs, if the Bruins find a way to shut down Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, who is going to step up and provide that extra bit of scoring so they could keep up?

Two, Erik Kallgren has looked pretty good for the Toronto Maple Leafs as far as I've seen in net for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Does that translate over to the postseason? And if he can't go, is Jack Campbell going to be the answer? If he can't go--

JUSTIN CUTHBERT: Yeah, it's got to be Jack. Erik Kallgren's not beating the Boston Bruins, I don't think, at least in my opinion. I don't think Erik Kallgren can be your guy. It's got to be Jack Campbell, or you're not going anywhere.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Someone has to do it. Someone has to do it for that franchise in net, because if the Toronto Maple Leafs, with the season that they're having right now, one of the-- arguably the best seasons they've had in their history with arguably the best player they've had in their history, having the greatest Leafs season they've had, again, in their history, they go up against the Boston Bruins, and they lay an egg? I don't know how anyone has any confidence in this corps.

I've said this so many times as well. I know I've been repeating myself a lot on this podcast. But I'm just making sure people remember.

JUSTIN CUTHBERT: It's all good.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: But with the Toronto Maple Leafs, they need to win a round this year. It has never been more crucial or more imperative for them to win a round, probably in their history, more than this year. I'm telling you, dude, if they lose this year and we're talking about the Leafs next year, you think people didn't care about the regular season this year? Imagine what the hell they're going to do next year.

By the way, a lot of those people who said we don't give a damn about the regular season, they're wrapped up in this Auston Matthews thing now.

JUSTIN CUTHBERT: Oh, yeah.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: That's the entry point for a lot of Toronto Maple Leafs fans right now. But next season, if the Leafs do not have a playoff series win under their belts, man, I cannot imagine the world of pressure that Sheldon Keefe, if he's still around, will be in, Kyle Dubas will be in, Auston Matthews, who will have already gone through the best season of his career-- and people are going to wonder, oh, man, can he reach that plateau. Mitch Marner, John Tavares, all those guys--

John Tavares is a point-per-game player. People are mad at him on the streets of Toronto. Can you imagine, they go through all of this season, and you don't get a series win? A world of hurt is coming for that franchise for next season if they don't get it done this year.

The pressure is firmly on the Toronto Maple Leafs for them to get it done. They don't need to win the Stanley Cup this year. They need one series win. One series win changes everything for that franchise for next season in terms of expectations, in terms of how we view that franchise, and even the way we view accomplishments from Auston Matthews and everyone else on that damn team.

They better get the job done for their sake, or else I don't know what Omar's going to do. Dude might start crying on live streams. Every time we do "Zone Time," he'll just have tears shedding from his face as we mention the Leafs. For the sake of a lot of people's well-being in Toronto, and maybe for some time too, the Maple Leafs better win a playoff series, or else we're just going to see a shell of Omar on every episode that he does for Yahoo Sports.

JUSTIN CUTHBERT: Yeah, it's going to be rough. It is going to be rough if the Leafs can't get a series victory this year. You mentioned the regular season. It was a no-win regular season, but the Leafs are winning the no-win regular season with the way that they're performing and the storylines that have come out with it.

But with Boston, it's the highest risk. It's the highest reward when looking at the future, because it's risky because Boston isn't Tampa Bay. You don't have that excuse, Stanley Cup champions. I mean, we played so well. We went seven with Stanley Cup champions, but they're the Stanley Cup champions.

The fact of the matter is you're better than Boston right now. You're better at this moment in time than the Boston Bruins. And if you don't beat them, changes will come. But if you do beat them, you're going to have the psychological bump that I think can really propel this team. High risk, high reward if the Maple Leafs get the Bruins in round one. It's going to be unbelievable if that happens.