Will Gary Trent Jr.'s production take a dip in the 2022-23 Raptors season?

Amit Mann and Esfandiar Baraheni look at the areas fans are hoping Gary Trent Jr. has improved heading into next season and how Nick Nurse will deploy the sharpshooter next season. Full episode projecting the per-game stats for Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam and more is available on the Raptors Over Everything podcast feed and on our Yahoo Sports Canada YouTube channel.

Video Transcript

AMIT MANN: Let's go with Gary Trent Jr, a dude who people are already trading, who have been trading all season-- all offseason-- and maybe it was close at times. Who the hell knows? But he's in a contract year. Last season, 18 points per game, career high on 41% shooting, 15 field goal attempts, 38% from 3. He was 41% on catch-and-shoot 3's, 42% on 2-point pull-ups. For comparison, Bradley Beal, 45.

Gary Trent jr. Is 23 years old and he's at-- he's in that kind of status and 34.6 on 3 point pull-up shots. Gary Trent Jr, what's going to change for this man?

ESFANDIAR BARAHENI: Similar to Fred, I feel like his role is going to be changing a little bit.

AMIT MANN: Yeah.

ESFANDIAR BARAHENI: Now I'm not sure to what extent. Same like Fred. I'm not sure how much they're going to change his role. And again, you know, we started this podcast at the top talking about the ambiguity of the starting lineup and we don't know who's going to be starting between Precious and Gary, but I do think there's an opportunity there for him to be a more efficient player. And the reason I say that is because I think, obviously, with the additions of Otto as a spacer, with Scottie getting more on-ball reps, I think there's room for him to just take better shots.

AMIT MANN: Sure.

ESFANDIAR BARAHENI: And if those better shots, you know, fall like they did last season, then there's more room for a better, more efficient season. The question I have with Gary, really-- and, you know, it's kind of tough to be like, look, Gary needs to be better at getting to the rim and finishing out the rim. I think that's an area of growth and I'm not sure if we'll necessarily ever get to the point where we're saying, OK, he's a good rim finisher.

But there are moments where I think he could be a better playmaker and he's had stretches last season where he was somewhat of a sufficient playmaker. So if he can double down on that and kind of hone in on his playmaking skills, then I can see maybe his assist numbers going up a little bit.

AMIT MANN: Yeah.

ESFANDIAR BARAHENI: And that's an aspect that I'd like for him to grow in, is, you know, being more of a playmaker, especially because he is one of the only guards on the team. If he can be a playmaker, then now you have this third guy, this fourth guy that can be somewhat of a ball handler for you, so.

AMIT MANN: Yeah, he's 6'5", but similar with OG, at times in the paint, like, he doesn't look 6'5". He looks like he's 6'2" 6'3". He doesn't really have the confidence. The footwork, which is incredible on the perimeter, doesn't translate necessarily around the rim and that's OK. That's an area of growth. Like I said, 23 years old, lots of time for him, but that is a huge difference maker in him reaching his ceiling and becoming like a true bona fide, like, 20-plus points per game scorer, right?

On a better percentage, 41% isn't great, right? And I think he's going to take less shots, probably similar to Fred. The efficiency hopefully goes up because he's going to be getting cleaner looks and the man can hit shots. We know this. He's been doing it for a long time. He shot 40% from 3 in January and February. I don't see why he can't shoot 40% from 3 this upcoming season in the variety of forms that he does it, because he's still going to get his opportunities as a pull-up 3-point shooter in transition. The catch and shoot is going to be there.

I would love to see him be a little bit more into the pick and roll. Again, we keep on talking pick and roll, but there was a moment in Rico Hines's run where he was running a pick and roll with Pascal Siakam and Gary made this pass to Pascal at the 3-point line and Pascal hit the catch and shoot shot.

ESFANDIAR BARAHENI: Yeah.

AMIT MANN: Would love to see more of that kind of stuff, if, as you said, he's showing that he can be trusted with the ball. That would be a huge step for him, a huge boost for the Raptors offense, right? I love the vision that they have when it comes to the read and reacting and having so many guys that could be a ball handler in the pick and roll. It's really creative. You can attack mismatches. You can really do some funky things, but you've got to be able to execute as well. And him not being able to get downhill as well is a factor, but him being able to play make out of the pick and roll would be huge.

ESFANDIAR BARAHENI: I could also see them using Fred and Gary more as a screener. You know, we talked about the ghost of the screens a little bit--

AMIT MANN: Yeah

ESFANDIAR BARAHENI: --in the beginning. That's something they went to a lot in the clutch last season, so maybe that's a way to kind of, hey, you know, use them as the roll man, so to speak, you know, popping out to the 3. I think that's kind of an interesting wrinkle here. And look, it's a way to get your guys downhill also. It's like--

AMIT MANN: Yeah.

ESFANDIAR BARAHENI: --you can get Scottie downhill, you can get OG downhill, you can get Pascal downhill, but also you have these guys who are spreading the floor for you and being the screeners pop out, like a Gary, like a Fred, maybe--

AMIT MANN: Exactly.

ESFANDIAR BARAHENI: --OG, maybe even an Otto that can space the floor for you a little bit. So that could be an interesting wrinkle to add too. Maybe more of that, right?

AMIT MANN: Yeah, for sure. And the mixes what you really want to see with this offense is that it's less isolation heavy and then you can use some of these guys like Gary and Fred as decoys. You can weaponize their 3-point shooting. They used to run a lot of Iverson cuts for Fred back in the Kyle Lowry days. I would love to see that come back. I would love to see them run some flair screens for some of these guys because they can get the shots off so quickly, their footwork is so elite around the 3-point line. Use is, right? Use it and show that you're really crafty with your offense and so it's not as predictable.

ESFANDIAR BARAHENI: Yeah.

AMIT MANN: I still think isolation, it should be a huge part of the Raptors offense. It is part of their ethos and they have guys that can do it, but keeping the defense honest is also very important and keeping them guessing. When it's very typical, that's when things do slow down and that does happen in the playoffs, but it doesn't have to be so predictable. Yeah. And the pull-ups are going to be there. Love those pull-ups.

ESFANDIAR BARAHENI: Yeah, absolutely. Yeah.

AMIT MANN: It's gorgeous.

ESFANDIAR BARAHENI: I think he's going to end up shooting more pull-up shots. It depends on what scenarios and what lineups he's in, right?

AMIT MANN: Yeah.

ESFANDIAR BARAHENI: Like, If he's going to be your six man off the bench, then he's probably going to be taking a lot more pull-ups and a lot more situations in pick and rolls because he's going to be running bench lineups. But if he's with the starters then you could see more catch and shoot opportunities, maybe more opportunities for him as like a release valve, attacking close outs. So like, yeah, those are the ways to do it, but I'm not sure. It's just I'm really excited to see what happens on Sunday, to be honest with you, because it'll be a little bit of an insight into how this team is supposed to look.

Yes, it's preseason and yes, they're not going to play their starters 38 minutes, but it's a little bit of an insight to kind of just gauge what the difference is we're looking at here this season.

AMIT MANN: Yeah. And the players that we do see, they are still going to be running the Raptors offense, right?

ESFANDIAR BARAHENI: Yeah.

AMIT MANN: So again, we're going to see like what kind of shots could they be getting. Imagine this is Fred VanVleet instead of Malachi Flynn or this is Scottie Barnes Delano Banton or whatever. Like, that's the stuff you can actually look at because the plays are going to be the exact same.

ESFANDIAR BARAHENI: Yeah.