Favorite long shots ahead of the PGA Player's Championship

Pamela Maldonado gives you her three best long-shot golfers ahead of the PGA Player's Championship from TPC Sawgrass. Make sure to tune into her weekly videos for her favorites at the top of the board. Can Scottie Scheffler go back-to-back tournament wins?

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Video Transcript

[MUSIC PLAYING]

PAM MALDONADO: Welcome to "The Yahoo Sportsbook Daily." It is a Wednesday, March 9th. I am your betting guide, Pam Maldonado, here to bring you my three favorite long shots to bet for the PLAYERS Championship.

[GOLF SWING]

[APPLAUSE]

That's right, it is time to talk some golf. Now, if you tailed me with Scottie Scheffler last week, then you are feeling pretty darn good. So let's see if I can carry some of that momentum over into this week. So don't forget to also catch my top three players in the video format on the Yahoo Sportsbook. here, I do like to reserve the space for some of my long list players, who I really love more so for a top 20 than to win outright, but can definitely snag a win, and just like Scheffler last week.

Looking at the course, TPC Sawgrass, a Pete Dye design, over 7,200 yards, a par-72. It is a tricky little sucker course that includes one of the most iconic par-3's on tour, 17, an Island green, where many, and I do mean many, see a water dunk. And we're more than likely going to see the same this time around.

Absolutely any style of play can contend at TPC Sawgrass. You can go for team no putt, players like Corey Conners, Sergio Garcia, all great ball strikers, oh, but they cannot putt to save their lives. You can go for somebody like Abe Ancer, who's shorter off the tee but more accurate, or you can target some of those short game players like a JT Poston, who doesn't really know what to do with his iron shots, but he is greater on the green and can putt every which way.

There's a million ways that you can look at this. Those who do well on Pete Dye designs, those who do well in tough weather conditions, those who play well in Florida. I'm keeping it simple, and I'm using instead just two data points. How well does a player do in a strong field event? So I'm looking at strength of schedule and recent form. That's it, those two things.

I'm dumbing it down, because the more data points that you add, I get confused. If I stick to just these two, more often than not, you're going to be just fine. Looking at course history could definitely be considered, but since the players are now playing in March instead of May, it is a really small sample size that we have of two March events, and that really just doesn't give me enough confidence to hold weight.

47 of the world's top 50 players will be competing this week, so it's definitely tough sledding. But here he goes, my top three players to make my long list. Player one, Daniel Berger, plus 185 for a top 20, plus 2,500 for a win. Because this tournament is in March and not in May, the Bermuda grass is dormant, and it is instead over-seeded with Bent and Poa. Well, guess who the best putter in the field is on Bent-Poa mix? That's Berger.

He took T9 at this event last year, and coming off a fourth place finish at the Honda Classic. The strength of field doesn't quite match up, but he did gain strokes in every category, including nearly seven ball striking. And I'm talking confidence. Confidence in golf is just as necessary as the actual stats.

Player two, Scottie Scheffler. Plus 130 for a top 20, plus 2,500 for a win. I'm calling this a long shot, because Scheffler has won in two of his last three tournaments, The Phoenix Open and the Arnold Palmer. He did miss the cut here last year, so a top 20 could make more sense than an outright, but he is playing some fantastic golf, so I'm going to keep riding that wave.

He has gained strokes in all but one category in three straight events. And when I say he missed on one category, he's been fairly neutral, losing less than a stroke off the tee. If he can remain the same in a less than driver course, Scheffler can definitely not only contend, especially since Bent-Poa is his best surface. Could he come out with another win? I wouldn't be surprised. So give me the best ball striker who has a strong short game, and I will gladly fire at will every time.

Player three, Viktor Hovland. Plus 110 for a top 20, 20 to one for a win. My absolute condolences if you had Hovland last week. He finished T2, but he just couldn't make a putt to save his life. And so those who are holding a Hovland ticket had to sit back and watch Scheffler take the win.

I'm targeting ball strikers this week, and that is Hovland. Gaining eight and nine strokes in back-to-back events to finish T4 at Genesis and runner up at the Arnold Palmer. We know that Hovland can contend in strong field events. T13 at the US Open, T12 at The Open. I do feel better about a top 20, but I wouldn't blame anyone if they wanted to go back to the outright market.

Just to recap, the three players who made my long list of contenders for the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass, Daniel Berger, Scottie Scheffler, and Viktor Hovland.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

You can follow me on Twitter over @pamelam35. And do make sure to follow all of our content over at the Yahoo Sportsbook. Bet $10 on any game at BetMGM and get $200 in free bets added to your account. You don't need to win your bet to receive this promotion. Go to BetMGM.com/YahooVIP to get started. New BetMGM customers only must be 21 or older in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming, only. Terms do apply. Please gamble responsibly. Ariel Epstein will be back tomorrow on "The Yahoo Sports Daily" to talk some NBA action. But until then, goodbye and good luck with your bets.

I got a Mike parlay going tonight.

Huh?

I bet on every team with a player named Mike.

That's dumb.

It's Mike night.

Brother, you got the points.

It's Mike night.

Bro, the steals.

Mike night.

But the--

[SHUSHING]. Take your negativity and put it over there.

Positive you're going to lose money.

Say what?

Nothing.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

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