Erik Karlsson trade would sell Oilers' future and that's ok

The Edmonton Oilers would have to send at least one of their talented young defencemen plus draft picks to the San Jose Sharks if they hope to add Erik Karlsson to a win-now roster. Reports suggest that Oilers' stars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are keen for the team to trade for a puck-moving defenceman like Karlsson or Jakob Chychrun, even if it shortens their window of contention to the next couple of years.

Video Transcript

JULIAN MCKENZIE: It looks as if the Sharks and the Oilers have at least reignited, in some fashion, trade talks involving Erik Karlsson. Yeah, what were you about to say, Omar?

- Yeah. So Erik Karlsson being, like, a possible trade target, like, has been going on for a while. Like, even before the reassur-- the resurgent thing, he's had an amazing season. And I-- I hear those things, and I think about it, and I sit on it. And then I go to capfriendly.com, and I look at his contract, and then I say how?

Because not only does he make 11 and 1/2 this season, he makes it for four more seasons. So, like, if you're Edmonton, I-- how? I don't know--

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Salary retention has to happen, for one.

- For four years? And how much are you retaining for four yea-- I don't know, man.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: I don't know how likele it is either, man.

- That's why I thought Tricker--

JULIAN MCKENZIE: I don't know how likely is it either.

- I thought Tricker to-- I thought Tricker into Edmonton made so much sense for both sides. But, like, Karlsson, he's having an incredible season. I get it. He's having an incredible season. But, like, for four years? I don't know, man. I think Ken-- man, I don't know. Avry, I don't know. I don't know, man.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Avry--

- Man.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Avry, tell-- give us your read on this, brother, please.

AVRY LEWIS-MCDOUGALL: Well, first of all, this is a guy you need [INAUDIBLE]. This is the guy you should be going after. But into his salary--

JULIAN MCKENZIE: This man said need.

- Need.

AVRY LEWIS-MCDOUGALL: Need, 110%. I put my foot in that-- my foot in that say need.

[LAUGHTER]

JULIAN MCKENZIE: No, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey. Hey.

ARUN SRINIVASAN: Wow, OK.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Hey, this is a family show.

[LAUGHTER]

You better to keep your foot on the ground, eh?

AVRY LEWIS-MCDOUGALL: (LAUGHING) Now, in terms of sal--

- The man said need. Instead, I said it with my whole foot.

AVRY LEWIS-MCDOUGALL: (LAUGHING) In terms of--

- Oh, my God.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Jesus kingdom lord have mercy

AVRY LEWIS-MCDOUGALL: (LAUGHING) When it comes--

- Oh

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Anyway.

AVRY LEWIS-MCDOUGALL: (LAUGHING) When it comes to salary, it's clear that you're gonna probably have to get a third team involved to make it work. But my concern is, Ken Holland and creativity? File not found.

- Mm-hmm.

AVRY LEWIS-MCDOUGALL: Like, (LAUGHING) Ken Holland [INAUDIBLE]. Don't forget he [INAUDIBLE]

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Oh, no.

AVRY LEWIS-MCDOUGALL: --how that's gonna work.

- It's true.

AVRY LEWIS-MCDOUGALL: He's not known as a DM. He isn't.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Sorry for the spit take.

- Yeah.

AVRY LEWIS-MCDOUGALL: [LAUGHS]

- But I think, going back to Avry's point on need, like-- and, Julian, this comes down to one of your-- in your plan template about, like, do the Oilers need another puck-moving defenceman? And I think the talk has been that, like, apparently the top players on Edmonton want a puck-moving defenceman--

JULIAN MCKENZIE: That's what they want, yes.

- [INAUDIBLE]

AVRY LEWIS-MCDOUGALL: Yes.

- Now I look-- now, I'm sorry if you're not a fancy stats person, but I looked at the numbers. And, man, OK, so the only defencemen on Edmonton who have, like, positive defensive results at 5 on 5 is the bottom pair.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Wow.

- That's it.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Geez.

- And then Bouchard and Philip Broberg, they're the only ones who have--

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Oh, OK.

- --positive defensive impacts.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Those are young defencemen.

- The top four-- exactly. the top four gets eaten alive. They're lucky that Jack Campbell has flipped the switch and he's actually getting positive results. Because to this day, the top four, Barrie, Ceci, Kulak. Who else? Who else is there?

JULIAN MCKENZIE: I'm thinking on it.

- Whatever.

[INTERPOSING VOICES]

- Those main three, they're--

AVRY LEWIS-MCDOUGALL: [INAUDIBLE] Darnell.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Oh, right, yeah, Darnell. We can't forget about Darnell Nurse.

- They're getting eaten alive at 5 on 5, and even though Karlsson puts up a lot of points, he also has, like, the best offensive impact on San Jose, like, by far, like, by far. It's not even close. It is not even close. So, yes, there's the offense, but he's also a good well-round player as well. So, like, I understand, like, wanting Karlsson, for sure. Regardless of looking at the Fantasy stats. I understand wanting Karlsson .

To Avry's point, I just don't know how you pull it off. I really don't. Especially considering, like, the other financial things you have to do after this year. Like, Draisaitl's not making 8 and 1/2 forever, man. And at some point, you're gonna have to pay McDavid his money, even more. So it makes sense, for sure, and it definitely makes the team better. It skyrockets the trajectory. Like, I-- if Erik Karlsson is on the Edmonton Oilers, that's a disgusting power play. Like, oh my God.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: This is just the offense.

- Oh, my-- like, are you-- like, are you kidding me? like, holy. But I don't know how they pull it off. I really don't.

ARUN SRINIVASAN: I mean, Omar, I'm glad you-- you raised so many good points. I generally agree with you. But I think it invites even more questions, like wouldn't Philip Broberg be going back in any Karlsson deal? Like, you know--

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Yeah.

- Mm-hmm, exactly

JULIAN MCKENZIE: There's a bunch of prospects that they're gonna want in that trade. There's probably Draft picks in that too.

- Absolutely.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: This is not ju-- like, you're talking about salary. Like, what's funny is we've talked about Kendrick Holland, you know, like, hey, you know, be creative. Like, put some players in this. And forget about the year 2029, 2030. Make a deal that's gonna work for your guys now. A deal to get Erik Karlsson, you're gonna have to look at some of your best prospects and picks. Sorry to cut you guys off, but, like--

ARUN SRINIVASAN: No, no, it--

JULIAN MCKENZIE: --this is the opportunity for Ken Holland to do that.

ARUN SRINIVASAN: And I generally agree with-- I generally agree with Omar's analysis. I'm not necessarily as high on Karlsson for his defensive impact. Like, yes, he's been the best defender on an abysmal Sharks defensive team. so he maybe best-- you know, it will give the Oilers-- if Karlsson goes the Oilers, I guess my issue-- I've been going back and forth with it-- like, does he fit their timeline? He's seven years older than Connor McDavid. He's six years older than Leon Draisaitl.

You know, that, too, , like the sort of reductionist narrative around the Oilers is that they're Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and nine, just, guys. And getting a player of Karlsson's impact of course increases their ceiling. But he is just one guy. Like, are you gonna play him 30 minutes a game? Are you still gonna have-- you're still gonna have those same problems in the bottom four.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Mm-hmm

ARUN SRINIVASAN: You're still-- you're probably sending one of, if not both, Filip Broberg and Evan Bouchard back in a trade.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Mm-hmm

ARUN SRINIVASAN: You know? I'm not necessarily worried about tomorrow. I'm generally of the opinion that tomorrow doesn't matter. Trade picks, always, picks no matter. But, like, that is a concern. So I think he'd-- yeah, of course, like, an Erik Karlsson trade makes sense to a degree. But, like, it's hard to pull off. You're gonna trade back a lot-- you know, a ton of Draft capital. And again, like, I'm so much of the opinion that, like, your core windows need to be aligned.

Karlsson's so much older than these dudes. You have, what, one or two years of contention, at max? I don't know. Like, I don't know if it makes Edmonton notably better, as crazy as it sounds, about the guy that I would probably rank second [INAUDIBLE], behind Adam Fox, right now, so.

- Yeah.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: I also would like to know those defensive numbers, too, with Erik Karlsson. Because, as Arun makes the point, that is a pretty bad defensive Sharks team. And Erik Karlsson, you know, as years has gone by, I mean, one thing that will stand out in his game, brilliance on offense.

ARUN SRINIVASAN: Yep.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: He will give up the puck a couple of times. That is going to happen, especially if you play the type of game that he plays.

ARUN SRINIVASAN: Edmonton's shot creation numbers are gonna be through the roof. But, like, they're also gonna give up, just, everything, if that happens. So we'll see.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Oh, yeah.

- So--

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Avry, go ahead.

AVRY LEWIS-MCDOUGALL: I was gonna say, but, you know, if you're gonna tell McDavid Drysdale, hey, you'll win this year, next year, and you might fall off after year three, I think they would take I, think he would, take--, cause, right, now, if he's fall off in year three, they'll take that title right now. But in terms of trades, I don't think you can trade-- you can-- I would rather trade away Broberg then Bouchard. Even Bouchard's feeling is much higher right now than Philip Broberg.

Broberg's a guy who will be elite or close to elite, I would say, in three to four years. Bouchard, right now, is one of your best young defencemen. And good NHL team don't trade away good, young defencemen to be elite. The Edmonton Oilers have done that many times, over, and over, and over again. They can't [INAUDIBLE] Bouchard. They cannot do it--

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Yeah, but then how are you getting Erick Karlsson then?

- But I think to that-- exactly. To that point, if I'm San Jose and I'm like, you want Karlsson? That trade starts with Bouchard and continues with your first-round pick.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Absolutely.

- That's-- at the very least, those two. And if the answer is no to any of them, then get someone else. Yeah.

ARUN SRINIVASAN: Yeah.

JULIAN MCKENZIE: Yes.