Tennis betting, odds: Will Carlos Alcaraz go back-to-back in Madrid?

The ATP heads to Spain for the Madrid Open, the second ATP Masters 1000 event of the clay court season after we saw top-10 player Andrey Rublev win the Monte-Carlo Masters earlier this month. It was the Russian’s first ATP 1000 title, which can sum up the 2023 season so far. It’s been volatile to say the least.

Rafael Nadal continues to remain sidelined from injury. World No. 1 Novak Djokovic is also skipping out due to injury while 21-year-old Jannik Sinner will sit out after withdrawing from the quarterfinal in Barcelona with an illness. It’s been the Carlos Alcaraz show. Still, at 19 years old, the Spaniard continues to make headlines and disrupt the tennis world with his greatness.

Last week, Carlitos won his third title of the year, winning ATP 500 Barcelona for his sixth clay court title. When healthy, Alcaraz looks unstoppable.

Odds to win ATP Masters 1000 Madrid

Carlos Alcaraz +100

Stefanos Tsitsipas +900

Daniil Medvedev +1100

Alexander Zverev +1400

Holger Rune +2000

The surface

Though it is clay, this is Madrid and altitude becomes a factor. The elevation means the air is thinner, which means the ball will travel with more pace. There are two types of players that can win this event — those with a power serve and power ground strokes like former champ Zverev, or those that are really good counter strikers, like Djokovic. Alcaraz won this event last year and although he doesn’t fit the exact mold of either of those playing styles, he is the variety of the Big 3 wrapped into one, including a drop shot that no one has an answer for. The drop shot has existed long before Carlitos, but he’s the one bringing it back on trend.

Let’s break down the draw.

Madrid Open first quarter, featuring Carlos Alcaraz

Every quarter of the Madrid Open is interesting and could present a shocker. Just last week, World No. 40 Dusan Lajovic defeated Djokovic in the quarterfinals of Banja Luka and that was followed by Rublev winning the second title of his career. This is tennis on clay. Expect the unexpected. That being said, in Alcaraz’s quarter is former champ Zverev, Rublev and Stan “Stanimal” Wawrinka. With a potential quarterfinal matchup against Zverev, that’s where it gets interesting. The German is still trying to find his way back to full form after injuring his ankle last year. Zverev is not quite there yet with a 10-11 win/loss record in 2023. However, he does have a stellar history in Madrid. Zverev holds a 19-3 record in Madrid, winning titles in 2018 and 2021. Perhaps this could be where he finds his spark again. With Alcaraz in his way, it’s a tough road ahead.

Madrid Open second quarter, featuring Holger Rune

Rune has been one of the better players of the year. He has a 21-8 record and is coming off a win last week in Munich on a third-set tiebreak. Rune has never played in Madrid so it’ll be interesting to see how he adjusts to the surface speed and elevation change. The second quarter has a few players who could come out on top of the quarter, including one of the best clay court players on tour in Casper Ruud, and big-time server Hubert Hurkacz. Two of Hubie’s losses in Madrid came against Djokovic and Zverev. With neither in his quarter this time around, Hurkacz would be the one to watch in this quarter of the draw.

Madrid Open third quarter, featuring Stefanos Tsitsipas

The Greek God is coming off a straight set final loss to Alcaraz last week in Barcelona after getting destroyed by the drop shot. Fortunately for him, there’s no one in his quarter that quite has that skillset. Felix Auger-Alissime is the player that has my attention the most. We haven’t seen him since earlier this month in Miami, where he had an early round of 32 loss to clay court specialist Francisco Cerundolo. These conditions favor FAA’s game a bit more, although we have yet to fully see what he’s capable of here. Felix has three losses in Madrid, against Rafa Nadal, Casper Ruud and Zverev. FAA could have a round of 16 rematch against Cerundolo, followed by a potential quarterfinal match against Tsitsipas.

Madrid Open fourth quarter, featuring Daniil Medvedev

We know Medvedev doesn’t love clay but he’s still capable. The Russian has certainly underperformed in Madrid with a 1-3 record — he last played in 2021, losing in the round of 16. Before that, he was unable to make it past the opening round. I like Taylor Fritz in this quarter. The American is inching closer and closer, whether it be a title or a big-time win that elevates his game even more. This year, Fritz has wins over Wawrinka, Tsitsipas and Rune, with close losses to Rublev and Sinner. It’s a bit of a friendly draw with his toughest opponent potentially being Cristian Garin in the round of 16.

Madrid Open best bets

Alcaraz to win ATP Masters 1000 Madrid +100. I know. I know. As mentioned earlier, when healthy, Alcaraz is unstoppable. He’s already shown that he can defend his title, winning Barcelona last year and then again last week. With a friendly draw, Carlitos can certainly defend once again.

Long shot to win: Holger Rune +2000. This is a number grab. If Alcaraz were to fall to an opponent before the final, it could be to fellow 19-year-old Rune. The two are split head-to-head. Rune could have some momentum having won his first title last week in Munich. In my opinion, Rune is not the fifth-best player in this field, so grabbing +2000 is value.