Yahoo Fantasy Hockey: Who should you drop/hold this week?

(Ed. Note: We’re once again pleased to partner with Dobber Hockey to provide fantasy hockey insight throughout the NHL season. Here’s Steve Laidlaw, the Managing Editor of DobberHockey, as your new fantasy hockey smarty-pants!)

By Steve Laidlaw

The past couple of weeks we have looked at some fast starters who are worth picking up. As important as identifying those good pickups is, it is equally important to know which players you drafted are worth dumping. Loss aversion is a well-known cognitive bias. No one wants to give up on a player they invested a draft pick on. While it’s completely understandable to hold onto a failed pick for too long, it is nevertheless the wrong choice. Don’t sink your chance to acquire a burgeoning stud for free by being too attached to your fantasy players. Let’s examine some highly owned slow starters and give you a verdict on whether you should drop them or remain patient.

DROP

Boone Jenner – C/LW – Columbus Blue Jackets – 65% owned: It was understandably easy to get sucked into Jenner following a 22-year-old season in which he scored 30 goals. Young players are supposed to develop on nice linear curves so he could only go up from there. WRONG! Jenner has been cast down to the fourth line, skating just 13:30 per game with almost no power play time. Jenner feasted on power play chances scoring nine goals with the man advantage. Take away the prime ice time, and optimal linemates and Jenner is no longer fantasy relevant.

Dylan Larkin – C/RW – Detroit Red Wings – 84% owned: Tuesday night’s two-goal eruption has likely reinvigorated your lust for Larkin. You are digging in your heels and are prepared to stick with Larkin for the long haul. Please don’t. There are undoubtedly some leagues in which Larkin’s eventual 45-point season will be fantasy relevant but 84% ownership is too much for a player being used on the second line and second power play in Detroit. While there are many Red Wings off to hot starts this is still a team many expected to disappoint and struggle on offense. The only teams to have overachieved more than the Red Wings (relative to league average shooting and save percentages) are the Canadiens and Oilers. The reckoning will come and Larkin’s scoring will go with it.

[Join a Yahoo Daily Fantasy Hockey contest now]

Patrick Marleau – C/LW – San Jose Sharks – 60% owned: Jaromir Jagr and Joe Thornton may contest this but Father Time is undefeated. Sure enough, Marleau has entered the twilight of his career and is now hockey’s version of a designated hitter, a player with the shot and smarts to contribute on the power play, but not so much at even strength. Other DH’s include Jarome Iginla and Shane Doan. You won’t find those guys owned in over half the leagues out there. It’s time to treat Marleau similarly.

Justin Williams – RW – Washington Capitals – 53% owned: Williams overachieved in hitting the 50-point mark last season. Do not expect him to do so again. He is now stranded on the third line and second power play unit and there is enough depth in Washington to keep him buried there. If 45 points is valuable in your pool, then hang on, otherwise, there are tastier names available.

Olli Maatta – D – Pittsburgh Penguins – 46% owned: Maatta is always an injury risk and when he is healthy he is frequently disappointing. He isn’t even the No. 2 option on the roster in the event of the inevitable Kris Letang injury. The upside is maybe 35 points, which is hardly fantasy relevant. You’d be better off streaming in the flavour of the week, and Maatta isn’t even that right now.

Hampus Lindholm – D – Anaheim Ducks – 39% owned: What are people waiting for exactly? Lindholm is undeniably talented but he hasn’t yet broken out at a level that warrants this kind of patience. He is more than likely headed towards another season hovering around 30 points, and that assumes he returns any time soon. Lindholm is maybe the No. 3 offensive option on the Ducks’ defense behind the likes of Cam Fowler and Sami Vatanen. But Shea Theodore and Brandon Montour loom as future high end puck movers. Lindholm may be pigeonholed into playing more of a defensive role. Maybe the hope is that a trade will open up a spot for Lindholm to emerge as the elite option his talents suggest. Right now, he appears stuck in a logjam. Save yourself this headache.

Frederik Andersen – G – Toronto Maple Leafs – 75% owned: Andersen isn’t as bad as we’ve seen thus far but the Leafs, with their youth movement, seem committed to playing high-wire hockey. It’s exciting as all hell but the Leafs are making daily fantasy too easy. You simply have to load up on whomever is facing them. So far, it’s a foolproof strategy.

There are some suggestions that the Leafs have altered Andersen’s approach/positioning in net, which the Leafs have denied. This is reminiscent of the time that Olaf Kolzig tried to alter Braden Holtby’s positioning. That led to the only season in which Holtby’s save percentage dipped below 0.915. Kolzig was subsequently fired and Holtby went back to being the Holtbeast. Maybe this is just some inconsistency from a goaltender coming off of injury and lacking confidence. Whatever the reasoning behind the struggles, at the end of the day, he is still the goaltender of a team not expected to win that many games.

Cut the cord and end the misery. There are plenty of juicy goaltenders on the waiver wire like:

Steve Mason – 48% owned
Jacob Markstrom – 35% owned
Connor Hellebuyck – 34% owned

Or you can go the spot-start route of scooping up backup goaltenders in favourable matchups. Always check in with Goalie Post to see the starting goaltenders for that day.

HOLD (for now)

David Krejci – C – Boston Bruins – 67% owned: The bar is high at the always loaded center position but Krejci rarely fails to deliver. The only season in which he has ever failed to score at a 50-point pace was his rookie season. Ever since he has been a lethal option. He has averaged 0.75 points per game for his career, making him essentially a walking 60-point machine. Maybe he falters a little and comes up shy of 60. Don’t bet on it being by a whole lot.

Jonathan Toews – C – Chicago Blackhawks: It is entirely conceivable for Toews to slip enough that he could become waiver wire worthy. The center position is deep and the Blackhawks depth is weak enough that it could drag Toews down. It would require some really miserable luck for that to happen, however. While it’s likely that you drafted Toews too high, he is still talented enough to drag himself to at least 50 points. He’ll also provide enough shot volume to warrant keeping around.

Andrew Ladd – LW – New York Islanders – 81% owned: Ladd deserves a little more time to try and develop some chemistry with superstar centerman John Tavares. The upside is enough to warrant it. You probably aren’t snagging a potential 60-point LW off the waiver wire at this point. While it remains unlikely that Ladd reaches 60 points the potential is there. More likely, he comes in between 50 and 55 points. The Islanders will certainly give him every opportunity to get there. He has skated virtually all of his shifts alongside Tavares and is used on the top power play unit. While Ladd is on the wrong side of the age curve at 30 years old, it’s not like he has turned into a pumpkin.

Brandon Saad – LW/RW – Columbus Blue Jackets – 89% owned: Tuesday night’s goal against the Los Angeles Kings is a positive development but more positive is the departure of young scoring stud Oliver Bjorkstrand. Bjorkstrand was monopolizing the RW spot on the Columbus top line as well as on top power play unit. With Bjorkstrand back in the minors, Saad has jumped into his spot, which should hopefully pay dividends. That Saad has averaged 50 points over the past three season despite never seeing top power play minutes makes him a high floor option. If he can hold onto his spot on the top power play unit, he could push 60 points, or at least best last season’s career high of 53, which he scored with just eight power-play points.

James Neal – RW – Nashville Predators – 96% owned: If alarm bells are going off in your mind reminding you that Neal is only one season removed from a 37-point disaster you aren’t alone, but this situation requires more patience. The upside for Neal is too high. He’s not going to hit the highs he did in Pittsburgh but he’ll see enough exposure to Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg that he’ll produce points soon enough. Take solace in the fact that Neal is averaging well over four shots per game. Anyone who can threaten for 35 goals and 300 SOG is worth keeping around.

Brian Elliott – G – Calgary Flames – 83% owned: Elliott is already turning the tide with back-to-back wins. He won’t approach near the level he did in St. Louis but this is still a goaltender capable of playing lights out for extended stretches. Elliott is probably best used as a good third option and started only in favourable matchups at home, where the Flames have a recent history of playing much better hockey.

Torey Krug, Keith Yandle, John Klingberg, John Carlson, Aaron Ekblad – D – All over 90% owned: The standard for defensemen is different. When 40 points makes for a successful season a player can go dry for multiple weeks on end and be worth hanging onto. My personal philosophy is to only hang onto defensemen with a high shot volume and are capable of hitting 50 points. All of these guys qualify. Even though not all of them will hit that 50-point mark, they’ll still provide strong production soon enough. They all see big minutes and top power play unit usage. Their jobs are secure.

Steve Laidlaw is the Managing Editor of Dobberhockey. Follow him on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw