World Baseball Classic 2017: Can Italy pull off another surprise upset?

From now until the World Baseball Classic begins on March 6, we’ll be helping you get to know each team involved in baseball’s global tournament. Today’s team: Italy.

When you think baseball, you don’t usually think Italy, right? But they do have a domestic baseball league, and several homegrown players will be heading to the WBC. They’ll be accompanied by a number of players from the US who have Italian heritage, including Chris Colabello, Francisco Cervelli, and Daniel Descalso.

Team Italy had a surprising showing in the 2013 WBC. They started in a pool containing Mexico, Canada, and the United States. They won an exciting game against Mexico to start their tournament, and then mercy ruled Canada in the eighth inning with a score of 14-4. They even gave the US team a run for their money, since a David Wright grand slam was the difference between the US winning and losing.

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Team Italy has two big problems going into the 2017 WBC. First is pitching, in that they have very little. Only two guys, Tommy Layne and Pat Venditte, have any significant major league experience, and Layne is the only MLB starter. But their bigger problem is who they have to play against. Italy plays in Pool D, which is probably the most talented pool in the entire WBC. Italy will have to play against the teams from Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela, and suddenly the thought of an upset seems incredibly daunting. But people were saying that about Italy four years ago, too. And they belied expectations in a major way.

Schedule details: Team Italy heads to Jalisco, Mexico for their first round of play. They start with a game against Mexico on March 9, followed by one against Venezuela on March 11, and one versus Puerto Rico on March 12.

’13 finish: After their stunning showing in the first round, the second round was not as kind to Italy. They lost close games to the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, who eventually took gold and silver in the WBC. They were eliminated, but at least they lost to the two best teams in the tournament.

Biggest stars: Francisco Cervelli, who signed a three-year contract extension with the Pittsburgh Pirates during the season, will be handling catching duties for Italy. Daniel Descalso of the Arizona Diamondbacks will be over at second base, and Chris Colabello will be DHing. Colabello’s 2016 suspension for PEDs certainly took a lot of the shine off of his once-rising star, he’s a recognizable MLB name, and probably looking for a chance to prove himself.

Notable absence: The Italian name you’re missing here is none other than Anthony Rizzo’s. Rizzo had initially committed to playing for Team Italy, but ended up backing out to focus on preparing for the 2017 season.

Player you should get familiar with: Brandon Nimmo. He’s not a complete unknown, considering he’s a prospect who broke through to the majors in 2016 with the New York Mets, but the WBC will give him a chance to shine. The center fielder hit .274/.338/.329 over 80 plate appearances with the Mets, and considering the teams that Italy is facing, he’ll have ample opportunity to gain more experience and prove himself.

Do they have a chance to win? No. Their pool is so stacked with teams laden with MLB talent that even though Italy has liberally borrowed MLB players of Italian heritage for their team, they don’t really have a chance.

THREE BIG QUESTIONS ABOUT ITALY

Will their pitching hold up? Well, it could. But probably not. Tommy Layne is the only pitcher on Team Italy that has significant experience starting at the MLB level. But Layne hasn’t started a game since 2012. Pat Venditte is a reliever known for being able to throw with either arm, which makes him a fascinating option, but if we see him early in a game, you know something’s gone wrong. While part of this problem is that the team’s pitching isn’t great, they’re also going to be facing some incredible hitters. Here’s just a sampling of players from Venezuela’s roster: Jose Altuve, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Salvador Perez. So Italy’s pitching staff definitely has an uphill battle here.

Will their offense make up for it? It’s certainly possible. While Cervelli and Colabello had frustrating 2017 campaigns, they’re more than capable at the plate. Mets prospects Brandon Nimmo and Gavin Cecchini will be looking to prove themselves, and the team has Daniel Descalso and Rob Segedin for good measure. But again, they’re facing some fearsome pitchers. Venezuela’s got Felix Hernandez, and Mexico’s got Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada, and Julio Urias. And those are just the starters! Italy’s hitters are going to need to find their bats early.

What are their chances of pulling off more upsets? It could always happen. They faced Mexico in the first round in 2013, and stunned them with a come-from-behind win that came against Sergio Romo in his prime. They’re facing Mexico in the first round this year, but this time Mexico will be coming into it with their eyes open, looking for revenge.

Also in this series:
—Australia
— Canada
— China
— Chinese Taipei
— Colombia
—Cuba
— Dominican Republic
— Israel
— Japan
— Korea
— Mexico
— Netherlands
— Puerto Rico
— United States
— Venezuela

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Liz Roscher is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email her at lizroscher@yahoo.com or follow her on twitter! Follow @lizroscher