Premier League Struggles: Wolves in the Relegation Zone

After six games of the 24/25 Premier League season Wolverhampton Wanderers sit in the relegation zone winless, with just one point taken to show for their effort.

This poor start has led to speculation about whether a managerial change might be just around the corner with Gary O’Neil occupying arguably the hottest seat in the Premier League at this point in time.

Defense of Gary O’Neil

O’Neil’s defenders will point to the fact that it has only been six games and that sacking him would be rash. They will breach the need for patience, and they may have a point. In the history of the Premier League, all 32 years of it, only 19 managers have been sacked by this point in the season and seven of them were accounted for just by Chelsea and Newcastle, hardly clubs with stable environments over the years.

It’s also fair to look at O’Neil’s history in the Premier League with Bournemouth and Wolves and suggest that he has a proven track record of overcoming slow starts and keeping his teams comfortably in the division.

Review of Previous Seasons

Last season Wolves took just four points from their first six games before a strong performance over the next 22 games saw them reach 9th place in the Premier League. A late season dip dropped them to 14th, more on that in a bit, but overall it was a satisfactory season.

The previous season he took over from Scott Parker at Bournemouth, just four games into the season. Bournemouth had been beaten 9-0 at Anfield and looked a certainty for relegation. It wasn’t a comfortable season for the Cherries by any stretch but O’Neil guided them to a 14th place finish and survival.

Club Challenges and Financial Backing

Theses are things that stand in O’Neil’s favour, as is the fact that Wolves haven’t exactly held up their end of the bargain and shown him significant backing.

Due to heavy spending, relatively speaking, and some particularly poor signings during their early years in the Premier League plus the changes to their ownership’s plan for the club caused by interference from the Chinese government, Wolves found themselves facing potential penalties under the Premier League’s profit and sustainability regulations.

Ruben Neves was sold, and Nathan Collins followed him out the door before Mathaus Nunes completed a trio of big summer departures in 2023. This past summer Max Kilman and Pedro Neto joined the exodus. That’s five starters in 14 months, with only the Brazilian duo of Joao Gomes and Andre looking to possess anything resembling the same type of quality.

Managerial Challenges

O’Neil, of course, wasn’t appointed at the beginning of the summer of 2023 despite it being widely accepted that Julen Lopetegui had no interest in continuing as manager, and O’Neil being available following his departure from Bournemouth. Rather than making the change and appointing the manager they had clearly decided would be their Lopetegui replacement early on, the senior figures at the Midlands club engaged in a ridiculous charade for two months where Lopetegui was the club manager in body but not in mind.

Need for Immediate Results

While it’s only been six league games this season, a sample size too small to really analyse, if we take a 19 game sample size – that’s half a Premier League season, and include the last 13 games of last seasons Premier League then things do look ugly.

Wolves have taken 12 points and only won three games. Over a full season, that equates to 24 points which means relegation in every single season over the last 100 years and in most seasons, a bottom-placed finish. The last time 24 points would have enabled survival was 1912/13. That was an era when only two teams were relegated. 24 would not have been enough to survive if three teams had gone down that season as they do now.

Upcoming Matches and Critical Outlook

Their next four games, to bring us to 10 Premier League games this season are Brentford away, Manchester City at home, Brighton away and Crystal Palace at home.

That feels like a very tough run for them, especially given their current form.

O’Neil does deserve more time, but not unlimited time. He needs to turn things around quickly and even if it means just threading water until January when his board can back him financially, he has to get Wolves out of the malaise they are currently in.