The Winnipeg Jets Are Off To The Best Start Ever, But Will It Actually Matter?

In this modern NHL, parity has been the name of the game. Take the Atlantic Division for example. Just three points separate the third-place Boston Bruins from the seventh-place Detroit Red Wings. Creating separation from 31 other NHL teams has never been more difficult.

Yet here we are, with the Winnipeg Jets looking down at the rest of the league from the mountaintop with a 14-1-0 record and .933 points percentage.

Before the Jets walked all over the Dallas Stars on Saturday afternoon, no team had ever won 14 of its first 15 games to start a season.

Not only do the Jets have the best record, they also lead the NHL in several categories, including the best power play percentage through 15 games in NHL history (42.1 percent) and their plus-36 goal differential is 16 more than the next-closest team.

They’ve also received Vezina quality goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck, who is second in the league in save percentage (.935), first in goals against average (1.83) among goalies with six games played and is tied for second in goals saved above expected (7.2) with Igor Shesterkin. On top of that, backup Eric Comrie has won all three of his starts with sparkling numbers.

In terms of scoring, Winnipeg is getting it from everywhere. They boast the most total points by defensemen (46) and 11 players have at least 10 points through 15 games.

So things couldn’t possibly be any better, and the Jets were already pretty good at hockey last year. It’s easy to forget, but Winnipeg was a powerhouse last season, finishing fourth in the NHL with 52 wins and 110 points. For all that work, it landed them a first-round matchup with the 2022 champion Colorado Avalanche. Despite the tough draw, it was still stunning to see Winnipeg go out with a whimper in five games.

With new head coach Scott Arniel taking over from Rick Bowness, the 'True North' is clearly on a mission like we’ve never seen before. The Jets have a real chance to challenge the 2022-23 Bruins’ NHL record of 65 wins and 135 points — with 28 points already in the bank, Winnipeg has 67 games to collect another 107 points. That would require a .800 winning percentage from here on out. Those Bruins of two seasons ago finished at .823.

But does any of this actually matter for the Jets’ Stanley Cup aspirations? With that question in mind, let’s take a look at the next-best starts in NHL history through 15 games, and what they accomplished in the playoffs.

The only other team to win 13 of its first 14 games, the 2007-08 Ottawa Senators returned from their crushing 2007 Stanley Cup Finals defeat with a 13-2-0 record. However, the team slumped shortly after Christmas and barely qualified for the playoffs, finishing seventh in the East. They became cannon fodder in a sweep against the eventual Cup finalist Pittsburgh Penguins, who were on the upswing. With that core of players, Ottawa never rebounded from that season.

The 2013-14 Colorado Avalanche weren’t expected to be world-beaters after drafting Nathan MacKinnon first overall in the summer, but that’s exactly what they looked like after 15 games, posting a 13-2-0 record. While the pace dropped off slightly, the Avs still clinched the Western Conference crown. But it didn’t matter in the playoffs, where they lost in seven games to the last-seeded Minnesota Wild. Although Colorado eventually lifted the Cup in 2022, it took another rebuild after they failed to match their 2013-14 results.

In a rare example of foreshadowing future success, the 1994-95 Quebec Nordiques jumped out to a 13-2-0 record that seemed to justify their slow and steady collection of future Hall-of-Famers. However, it was too soon for the Nordiques, who lost in six games in round one to the New York Rangers that spring. But Denver would reap the rewards of Quebec’s genius rebuild the next season with a championship, proving this hot start wasn’t for nothing.

It was to absolutely nobody’s surprise in 2005 when the Red Wings kicked off the new era of the NHL with a 12-2-1 record. Their 2002 Cup win was still fresh in many people’s minds, and Motor City seemed destined to pile up more Cups with their core of Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg and Nicklas Lidstrom. But the scrappy Edmonton Oilers put a pin in that when they stunned the hockey world with a six-game victory over Detroit in round one. The Red Wings still had a few last gasps though, winning the Cup in 2008.

Similar to those Red Wings, the 1994-95 Pittsburgh Penguins were still relatively fresh off back-to-back Cups when they started the season 12-1-2. Surprisingly, that came without superstar captain Mario Lemieux and was instead led by Jaromir Jagr. After a strong regular season finish, however, the wheels fell off when the Pens suffered a shocking five-game defeat to the eventual champion New Jersey Devils.

So of the five aforementioned teams, four lost in round one after their record-setting starts, three fell to eventual Cup finalists and three won their division.

Not the worst news for Jets fans, but certainly not the best news for a team that has already been through its fair share of first-round defeats. Winning 14 games in October and November means nothing when it comes to claiming 16 wins in April, May and June.

But the first thing is getting there, and Winnipeg has a long runway ahead. The numbers underneath the hood are slightly worrisome, with middling 5-on-5 numbers for expected goals percentage, Corsi and Fenwick. The Jets also have the highest PDO at 107.16, which will likely come down at least a bit. However, the Jets also had the NHL’s second-highest PDO last season, so what gives?

All in all, the Jets are a fantastic regular season team that simply hasn’t shown it can make noise when it counts. Since 2018, they have the seventh-most wins in the NHL and only a single conference finals appearance to show for it.

Unless this is the start-to-finish masterclass that we rarely ever see in professional sports, the Jets might be in tough this season.

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