Why the stakes are so high for Atlanta Hawks, who hold No. 1 pick in 2024 NBA draft

ATLANTA — The Atlanta Hawks are on the clock; all that’s at stake are the viability of a young and untested front office, the credibility of a meddling owner and the future of a superstar point guard who has started to send signals that patience is running thin.

By the end of this NBA draft, for which the Hawks improbably hold the No. 1 pick after cashing in a 3% chance to win the lottery, they will either look a little bit different or a lot different.

But after three straight years of being relegated to the postseason play-in tournament despite an expensive roster, Trae Young’s offensive brilliance and a supposedly transformational coaching hire in Quin Snyder, change is needed. And change is almost assuredly coming.

But what kind of change, and how much of it, is a complicated question Atlanta needed to address this summer regardless of its draft positioning. Getting the No. 1 pick made its decision-making process even more interesting. And getting the No. 1 pick in this draft – where there’s no consensus on the top player and the overall quality of lottery talent looks relatively weak – means there are numerous paths for the Hawks front office to explore but also plenty of potential pitfalls that could take them from mediocre to worse.

2024 NBA DRAFT: Full order for first and second rounds

Oh, and did we mention that Atlanta won't control its first-round picks for the next three years thanks to a trade for Dejounte Murray that hasn’t worked out as well as they hoped?

Throw all of that on the shoulders of 35-year-old general manager Landry Fields, whose short tenure thus far has been defined by indecision and lack of action, and you've got the makings of a fascinating few days that will potentially transform the Hawks but also have ripple effects around the league.

“I think we’re in a really good position here,” Fields told reporters last week. "I’m excited about it.”

Here are the three big factors Fields and Hawks principal owner and governor Tony Ressler will have to juggle over the coming days, starting with the first big decision at Wednesday’s draft:

The Pick

Even here, at what is usually the most straightforward part of landing the No. 1 pick, there's a lot to consider because of the Hawks’ unique position as a team in the playoff mix with some players already locked in at key positions.

In fact, even if Atlanta decided it was time to unload all of their veterans and start over around a young No. 1 draft pick, there's one major problem: Atlanta owes San Antonio its first-rounder in 2025 and 2027 with the Spurs also having swap rights in 2026.

In other words, Atlanta can’t really tank. And if the team is going to continue on its current path with Young as point guard, it doesn't make sense for the Hawks to draft another smaller guard with defensive concerns like Reed Sheppard or Rob Dillingham.

The Hawks are also quite happy with their situation at power forward, where 22-year-old Jalen Johnson was one of the NBA’s breakout players last season and could be poised to leap into the All-Star conversation in the near future.

That may explain why Alexandre Sarr, the 7-foot Frenchman who had been on top of several mock drafts, declined to work out for Atlanta and reportedly prefers being taken by the Washington Wizards at No. 2: There’s simply more immediate opportunity for playing time and offensive touches at his preferred position.

WHERE WILL SARR BE DRAFTED? Experts predict landing spots

Of course, Atlanta could simply take Sarr based on his elite defensive potential – which is badly needed for a team that was 27th in defensive efficiency last season – and worry later about whether he's a power forward or center and how he might pair in a frontcourt with Johnson.

The Hawks have also been linked to 6-foot-9 Frenchman Zaccharie Risacher, who projects as the kind of two-way wing Atlanta has struggled to find during the Young era. The Hawks also seem to have an affinity for 7-foot-2 center Donovan Clingan out of UConn and recently had Lithuanian American Matas Buzelis, who played for G League Ignite this season, in for a workout.

All indications are that Atlanta has strongly considered all options involving those four players, and Fields is playing things pretty close to the vest. Does Washington try to trade up fearing Sarr might be off the board? Does San Antonio, sitting at No. 4, have a player like Risacher or Sheppard that they really want to pair with Victor Wembanyama and move up to get him? Is Clingan still there if the Hawks swap places with the Spurs, or does someone like Memphis try to jump the line and snag the No. 3 pick from Houston in a trade?

All those possibilities floating around will make for some intense speculation as the first several picks are announced, with Atlanta holding all the cards.

The Backcourt

Through two seasons, the reality for Atlanta is that pairing Murray with Young hasn’t moved the needle. The theory of the trade was sound: Balance out the offense with another ball handler next to Young and fix the defense with someone who could guard on the perimeter.

But on the floor, it just hasn’t been a good mix. Murray and Young don’t play well off of each other, and Murray hasn’t lived up to the defensive reputation he had in San Antonio, perhaps because he’s not physically equipped to guard bigger shooting guards.

Given the high price Atlanta paid to acquire Murray, it’s pretty much a disaster that Fields will have to maneuver out of somehow. Trading one of them is probably the clearest path to fixing the roster and recouping some draft assets.

Murray is probably the easier of the two to move given his favorable contract ($28.5 million per year through 2027-28), but the Hawks explored deals for him at the deadline this season and ended up standing pat. The Lakers, Magic, Pelicans and, yes, the Spurs are all logical trading partners for Murray.

On paper, Young should net a bigger haul. But he's also a polarizing player around the league, and as incredible of an offensive engine as he has been, there aren’t necessarily a ton of teams in position to make him the nucleus of their franchise. Young has two more years under contract before a player option would make him a free agent, and his public comments have made it clear there's some pressure on the Hawks to win again – and soon – after they made the Eastern Conference finals in 2021.

But if the Hawks do part ways with Young, it will not only be a major change for the franchise – every decision over the last several years has been made with him in mind – but will be a huge indictment of Ressler, who directly finalized the 2018 draft-night trade with Mark Cuban that swapped Luka Doncic for Young and a future draft pick.

The Salary Cap

Despite their mediocrity, the Hawks are an expensive team. Without getting too far into the nitty-gritty details, they are already over the salary cap and bumping up against the "first apron” with just the 10 players on their roster and not accounting for the No. 1 pick and restricted free agents like Saddiq Bey and Vit Krejčí they might try to retain. The Hawks also know that Johnson is going to command a big contract next summer when his rookie deal expires.

So unless Ressler pays the luxury tax – and that doesn't seem likely unless Atlanta proves itself as a contender – the Hawks have to move some salary around both for the short- and long-term.

That explains why there have been a bevy of reports this week that everyone on Atlanta’s roster is available in trade talks except Johnson. It doesn’t mean the Hawks will burn everything down, but they need to make some strategic moves and get off at least one big contract.

The center position is an obvious spot to clear space, especially if Atlanta drafts a big man like Sarr or Clingan. Veteran Clint Capela has one year left at $22.3 million, making him very movable. You could also throw 24-year-old Onyeka Okongwu into that discussion, given that he is on a good contract (four years, $62 million) and has shown some interesting flashes.

De’Andre Hunter has not been the best fit with Young but still might have some fans around the league as a three-and-D wing with four years left on his contract at a reasonable number (escalating $20 million-$25 million cap hit). Sharpshooter Bogdan Bogdanović is also the type of role player a contender would covet, but he's on such a good deal (4 years, $68 million) that the Hawks may want to keep him around if they're still trying to win.

The sheer number of permutations – both in trade possibilities and the draft – means the Hawks could and probably should look very different starting on Wednesday and continuing into free agency. But the Hawks, who have been reticent to shake things up too much over the last couple of years, seem to finally be on the verge of big decisions.

Now it's just a matter of making the right ones.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Atlanta Hawks have No. 1 pick in 2024 NBA draft, many paths to choose