Why the Lakers should stay patient

There is much to be encouraged about the Lakers’ season so far despite their 0-3 record. Anthony Davis is looking closer to his 2019-20 form. They have the second-best defensive rating right now even though their roster lacks defensive personnel. Lonnie Walker IV has stood out as the Lakers’ third-best player. And LeBron James is still looking like a top player.

However, the Lakers have two big issues limiting them: they are having an abysmal shooting start to the season, and Russell Westbrook seems to have regressed even further. They are last in the league in both three-pointers made and three-point percentage, yet they managed to overcome this in their two most recent games against the Clippers and Trail Blazers and keep the score close up until the end.

The Lakers managed to close a 12-point gap against the Clippers at the end of the third/early fourth quarter once they took Westbrook out. They also generated an eight-point lead against the Blazers when Westbrook was out during a similar stretch. In both games Westbrook was brought back to close, instantly killing their momentum and costing them key possessions. The Blazers didn’t even sag off of Westbrook defensively, they completely ignored him to provide help elsewhere.

It’s clear that a winning formula for the Lakers doesn’t involve Westbrook on the roster. And while those who see that are still wondering why the Lakers haven’t traded him yet, moving additional future first-round picks alongside him isn’t as cut and dry as it seems.

There doesn’t appear to be a deal out there that propels them back into contention yet they can’t bottom out for a top pick in this year’s draft. If the Lakers continue to struggle, they might ultimately decide not to make any deal, and they might be better off for it.

Weighing the present vs. the future

(Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

The Lakers appear to be conscious of their future for the first time since having James on the roster. This isn’t to say that they now outweigh the future more than the present – by all accounts, the Lakers are working on deals to improve the team involving their available remaining draft capital. But even if they can significantly improve the present, its window for contention is shrinking. It wouldn’t be unreasonable if they ultimately did decide to pivot towards the future.

Since 2019, the Lakers have traded five first-round picks, including three for Davis, one for Dennis Schroeder, and one for Westbrook. They also gave the Pelicans swapping rights for their 2023 first-round pick, eliminating any possibility of bottoming out for a top pick in this year’s draft. And since the Pelicans can convey the Lakers’ 2024 first-round pick as well, they also can’t bottom out for a high draft pick in next year’s draft as well. This should naturally disincentivize the Lakers from being anti-competitive over the next two seasons.

They also have no blue-chip prospects to look forward thanks to their recent trades and will continue to lack them while they have obligations to the Pelicans, possibly until 2025. By then, James and Davis could become unrestricted free agents, leaving a lot of uncertainty on the table going forward. Because of that, their unprotected first-round picks in 2027 and 2029 can be super valuable, and the Lakers understand this.

The idea of giving up two potentially valuable first-round picks with no core to look forward to past 2025 is a legitimate concern. This rings especially true considering they’ve already given up two valuable picks with the 4th overall in 2019, and the 8th overall in 2022 to the Pelicans. They could also give up another valuable first-round pick to the Pelicans via swap in the upcoming 2023 draft and potentially another high pick in 2024 or 2025. It’s understandable why the Lakers are showing so much restraint in trading future draft picks now.

It’s important not to disregard the future five years from now and out. The Lakers went through a long period of losing between 2014-2018 but part of their ability to build a contender after was accumulating high draft picks and drafting well. If the Lakers trade both their 2027 and 2029 first-round picks, they’ll already be at a disadvantage in their next rebuild as opposed to their previous one with just four first-round draft picks over the next seven drafts.

Of course, they are the Lakers so another star could eventually sign with them and they are positioning themselves for one. They are projected to generate $30 million in cap space in 2023, and it seems like a good bet that they will roll it over into future offseasons if they strike out. 2025 can be the next big free agency class with many talented players from the 2016 and 2017 draft classes able to hit the market then, as well as a potential salary cap spike. Still, the more assets they have, the more likely they’ll succeed in building the next great Lakers team around a potential new star.

What can the Lakers do right now?

D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

It’s possible there is some type of middle ground the Lakers can meet when it comes to dealing with their present and future. In regards to their draft picks, the Lakers may be more concerned not with just winning the deal but also preserving their assets for additional trades. And that makes sense considering the limited amount of options they have in the market right now.

We will probably continue to hear now and then about how the Lakers and Pacers are touching base on a Westbrook for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield trade. While that trade brings the Lakers the most immediate shooting help and defensive upside, it’s hard to say whether the duo is worth two far-out future first-round picks. The demand for the Lakers’ inclusion of both their 2027 and 2029 first-round picks may be more about teams trying to squeeze the Lakers for an optimal return.

The Jazz are off to a strong start thanks to their aggressive three-point shooting as well as a better-than-expected defense so far. It feels like it could amount to a trade for more future first-round picks with the way their rotation players have raised their value. A deal involving players such as Lauri Markkanen, Mike Conley, and Jordan Clarkson could help the Lakers’ bottom-tier shooting, but it wouldn’t be fair to expect them to replicate the magic they have going on in Utah so far.

According to The Athletic’s Shams Charania, the Lakers are interested in Terry Rozier, though that gets complicated considering the Hornets need to send out an additional $16 million to match salaries for Westbrook. They’ve also held discussions about Josh Richardson, and like the Pacers, the Spurs can make an uneven trade thanks to their $29.9 million in cap space.

As painful as it could be over the next few months, the best course of action could be staying patient. If last season taught us anything it’s that things change in the NBA quickly with the most unexpected players becoming available. The Sixers could’ve traded Ben Simmons early last season but then they wouldn’t have gotten the chance to trade for James Harden later. With a little bit of luck, it’s possible the Lakers could have an opportunity to acquire a real difference-maker by the trade deadline.

Make no mistake, they are in this mess because of years of miscalculated risks, the most damaging being for Westbrook where they essentially traded three players (four if you include Alex Caruso) for zero. But they are where they are now and have zero room for error going forward. And if no Westbrook-plus-picks trade happens this season, that’s better than making a deal out of desperation.

[listicle id=1772145]

[listicle id=1735645]

[listicle id=1663497]

Story originally appeared on HoopsHype