Why John Tavares Will Have Another Down Season

John Tavares has been a name buzzing in the news as of late with his recent resignation as captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs. It’s still unclear if Tavares did step down but one thing that is for sure is that Johnny Toronto likely won’t be coming back to Toronto when he contract expires at the end of next season.

He enters the final year of his seven-year contract with a cap hit at $11 million. During his time with his hometown team, the Toronto native has been a serviceable point-per-game player with 419 points in 440 games with the Leafs.

His goal scoring ability has been more a thing of the past as of late as Tavares has hit the 30-goal mark six times in his 15 NHL seasons. He is being asked to hit the mark again at DraftKings, where his season goal total has an over/under line at 29.5 and should be an interesting bet to take.

He has come very close to hitting this mark several times with six other seasons where he came within four goals of hitting 30 goals. We don’t think this should be taken to seriously however as Tavares did struggle last season.

He did finish with decent numbers at 29 goals and 36 assists for 65 points in 80 games. This was carried by a hot streak that kicked off the season with 31 points in his first 34 games of the season. It then soured when the calendar hit the new year and he finished with 34 points in the final 46 games of the season with just 12 points in January and February.

These dry spills should come more frequently as he enters next season at age 34 and will see one of his linemates shift from Tyler Bertuzzi to Bobby McMann. Bertuzzi left for Chicago in free agency and was a bit of a let down during his one year with Toronto only recording 21 goals and 22 assists for 43 points rather than the 50-60 point producer Toronto thought they were receiving.

McMann will see a large increase in his role as he should become a regular top six forward. He surprised many with his efforts last season as he finished his first full NHL season with 15 goals and nine assists for 24 points in 56 games.

He could work his way up to a 30-40 point producer which should help Tavares not lose much offence from his line but will still be tricky to gamble on a 28-year-old McMann that has barely shown any pop in his career until last season. Tavares’ line at 29.5 is something I wouldn’t recommend taking and would rather look to take the under.

Click here to check out more offseason stories on future bets before it’s too late and odds change.