Why John Schneider’s playoff decisions shouldn't hurt his future with the Blue Jays

Everyone has a take on the Toronto Blue Jays’ epic playoff collapse, and rightfully so. That’s what makes being a sports fan fun.

There were plenty of pivotal – and dreadful – moments in Saturday’s Game 2 wild card loss for Blue Jays supporters to pick apart. But manager John Schneider’s decision to pull starter Kevin Gausman with two outs in the sixth inning seems to have struck a nerve.

After allowing three consecutive singles, then recording two outs, Gausman, at 95 pitches, was yanked from the game and replaced by reliever Tim Mayza. The left-hander spiked a fastball to the backstop and promptly allowed a three-run homer to Seattle Mariners designated hitter Carlos Santana.

The contention from the “Fire Schneider” crowd is that Gausman, whom the Blue Jays paid $110 million this offseason, should have continued the inning. And if Gausman had stayed in, the thinking is that he would’ve retired Santana – or at least not allowed a homer – and prevented a game-changing moment in the M’s eventual 10-9 win.

So, did Schneider make the wrong call? I didn’t think so.

First off, I wouldn’t have been surprised if the Jays elected to turn to the bullpen for the start of the sixth, given how long Gausman had been sitting in the dugout while his club poured on four runs in the bottom of the fifth.

It was more curious, in my opinion, the Blue Jays didn’t turn to Mayza one batter earlier to face Adam Frazier, who represented the start of a heavily left-handed part of Seattle’s lineup. Santana had also already hit a 409-foot double off Gausman earlier in the game, prompting Schneider to turn to Mayza.

“I thought it sequenced out pretty well,” said Schneider, defending his decision following the loss. “[Tim] Mayza is a tough guy to get underneath and hit the ball out of the ballpark. Especially, we like that with Santana right-handed as opposed to left-handed.

“There's always going to be times where I could sit here for about six months and second-guess myself, but right now I don't.”

Schneider’s logic was that Mayza’s running fastball would limit Santana’s pull power. Yes, the 36-year-old’s .789 OPS versus left-handed pitching this year greatly outdoes his .655 OPS versus right-handers. But Santana was slugging .250 this season against left-handed sinkers; he saw 78 of those pitches and didn’t hit one for extra bases. On Saturday, he put a good stroke on a well-located fastball and changed the Blue Jays’ season.

In the eighth inning, Anthony Bass, the lone remaining high-leverage arm not named Jordan Romano, failed to record an out before the closer took over. From there, an act-of-God collision tied up the game and swung the momentum irreparably in Seattle’s favour. Again, I see no negligence on Schneider’s end.

Now the Blue Jays’ season is toast and decisions must be made. The easiest choice of them all should be to bring Schneider back for 2023. It seems likely that will happen, too, as general manager Ross Atkins said in a season-ending press conference Tuesday that it will be “very difficult” for his club to find a better managerial fit than Schneider.

“Working with John Schneider,” Atkins said, “if you think about his history with this organization, his history with the players, seeing how he handled the pressure, seeing how he handled decision-making, how he handled communication, we feel that he's a very strong candidate.

“And if you put all those pieces together, and then knowing what we know about external candidates, I feel like it would be very difficult to do better than that.”

As Atkins pointed out, Schneider’s longstanding connection with core players (Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Danny Jansen, Romano, etc.) gives him a leg-up over other potential skippers. But it’s not just the players who played for Schneider in the minors. Other, more experienced players loved how Schneider operated this season.

“Of course, I would want him to come back,” said Jays third baseman Matt Chapman. “I love [Schneider]. I think he was great for this team. I think he understands the pulse of this team and how the guys operate. I have a great relationship with him.

“I think if he had another opportunity to take us through a full season, it could be even better.”

Starting pitcher Ross Stripling lauded Schneider for his ability to communicate and motivate different personalities in the Blue Jays clubhouse, but at the same time be unafraid to challenge the team’s biggest stars.

“He was a really good mix of being a leader, but also being one of the guys, but also being able to hold guys accountable,” said Stripling, a free agent at season’s end. “Many times, I feel like you saw him talking to [Guerrero Jr.] or some others, whether it was to tell him to get it going or picking them up when they've been struggling or whatever. He's kind of the perfect fit.”

To those calling for Schneider’s head, please keep in mind this Blue Jays front office evaluates these decisions using a much larger sample size than two crummy playoff losses.

Even if it were abundantly clear Schneider cracked under the pressure, which he didn’t, a short-sighted firing wouldn’t make sense coming from a Toronto front office that is known for being thorough and “process-based.”

If (when?) Schneider comes back, it won’t be a glamorous, long-term pact. It’ll be a team-friendly deal, maybe two or three years with a club option, not unlike the contract the Blue Jays handed Charlie Montoyo ahead of the 2019 season.

And if Schneider is to have greater success, he’ll need a deeper roster to play with. After Atkins’ chat with the media, it appears the bullpen and rotation will be addressed. There could also be some salary trade-offs on the position player side, as the Toronto front office prepares to present its season budget to ownership.

Baseball is a cruel sport that will leave you wondering how and why everything went wrong. While we await a decision on who will manage the 2023 Blue Jays, fans must first accept this reality while they process Saturday’s historical collapse. Sometimes there’s no fathomable answer or even a scapegoat to point the finger at.

Neither the Blue Jays front office nor the players blame Schneider for the loss. Blue Jays fans should let him off the hook, too.

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