Why Dabo Swinney and Clemson football are a historic betting underdog vs. UGA

Back in September 2021, when the Clemson and Georgia football teams played each other in a neutral-site season opener in Charlotte, the Tigers were a 3-point favorite.

Oh, how things change.

Three years after they duked it out in the Duke’s Mayo Classic, Clemson and Georgia are playing each other in a nearly identical setup this weekend: a neutral-site season opener, this one at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

But Vegas’ thoughts have changed. Drastically.

As of Wednesday, the preseason No. 1 Bulldogs are favored by 13.5 points – nearly two touchdowns – against the No. 14 Tigers for Saturday’s game (noon, ABC).

That number resembles the second worst point spread of the Dabo Swinney era, which dates back to 2008. It marks only the ninth time this century Clemson football has entered a game as a betting underdog of 10 or more points.

And, according to Covers.com betting analyst Douglas Farmer, the dramatic swing in Clemson-UGA lines from 2021 to 2024 says a lot about the current state of the regional rivals heading into the Aflac Kickoff Game.

“It really emphasizes the dovetailing of these two programs, that this has moved 17 points in just three years,” Farmer said Wednesday. “To me, that’s the most interesting part of looking at the gambling on this game: The difference in perceptions and realities in those three seasons.”

Three years ago, Clemson was fresh off its sixth consecutive College Football Playoff appearance under Swinney, and just about everyone assumed the Tigers would keep on chugging with DJ Uiagalelei succeeding Trevor Lawrence at quarterback.

Clemson was the preseason No. 3 team in the country and favored by roughly a field goal against No. 5 Georgia, always an SEC force to be reckoned with – but still a sleeping giant under coach Kirby Smart, a program that hadn’t hit its true ceiling.

“And of course, we all know what happened,” Farmer said.

The Bulldogs won against the Tigers, 10-3, in Charlotte. Then they kept on winning. And winning. And winning. Smart’s UGA program is 42-2 dating back to that game, with back-to-back national championships in 2021-22 and a 13-1 showing in 2023.

And Clemson, of course, is riding a three-year CFP drought and is coming off its fewest wins in a season since 2010.

The Tigers started 4-4 last season and finished 9-4, but questions linger about the effectiveness of quarterback Cade Klubnik, Swinney’s transfer portal philosophy and an offense that has lacked consistent explosiveness.

Quite the litmus test, no?

“Three years ago, Clemson was national championship potential,” Farmer said. “Now that’s Georgia’s default. Three years ago, it was, ‘Well, Georgia’s really good, but they’re going to find a way to botch this. And now that’s the Clemson default. They have flipped roles so dramatically. There are certainly other examples, but it’d be hard to find one so definitive or dramatic as this.”

The end result: Sportsbooks setting the line for 2024 as nearly two touchdowns for the Bulldogs. That point spread (UGA -13.5) started circulating over the summer and is a consensus among major providers such as Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings, FanDuel and ESPN BET.

According to the Odds Shark database, it’s the first time since September 2012 that Clemson will enter a game as a betting underdog of 10 or more points. That week, the No. 10 Tigers visited No. 4 Florida State in Tallahassee and were a 14.5-point betting underdog to coach Jimbo Fisher and QB EJ Manuel.

Clemson ultimately lost 49-37 – but covered the 14.5-point spread, as the Tigers only lost by 11 points. For 12 years, the game stood as a statistical anomaly during Swinney’s remarkable Clemson tenure as the only time one of his teams was a double-digit underdog or worse in over 200 regular season and postseason games.

That’ll change Saturday.

The Clemson-UGA spread has not budged since it was first posted, Farmer said, with some of those lines dating all the way back to January. The action (the bets and money placed on the spread) has been pretty even, too.

In other words, there haven’t been hundreds and hundreds of bettors rushing to hammer Clemson +13.5, convinced that Swinney, Klubnik and the Tigers are tremendously undervalued. (Sportsbooks often shift lines in such instances.)

One website that tracks these numbers, VegasInsider.com, shows that 62% of all bets placed on the point spread (and 80% of all point spread bet money) have gone in favor of UGA. That means roughly 6 in 10 gamblers see the Bulldogs winning by two touchdowns or more against a team picked to finish second in the ACC this year.

For the record, Farmer said he still thinks Clemson is a smart bet to win the ACC this season, and he’d lean toward betting on the Tigers to cover the point spread Saturday, too. But not because he’s planning on an upset.

If the Tigers find themselves down 20 points in the fourth quarter, he said, “that’s a backdoor touchdown away” from a 13-point loss and a Clemson bet cashing in.

“It’s Georgia,” Farmer said. “Georgia has no holes. Clemson, they’re better than almost everybody. They’re just not better than the Georgias of the world right now.”

Clemson vs. Georgia game, TV info

• Who: No. 14 Clemson (0-0) vs. No. 1 Georgia (0-0)

• When: noon Saturday

• Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta

• TV: ABC

• Line: Georgia by 13.5 points