Why Chandler Stephenson is a Fantasy Fade

Did you know? Since joining the Golden Knights midway through the 2019-20 season, only Jonathan Marchessault and Mark Stone have outscored Chandler Stephenson?

With 237 points in 327 games, Stephenson also ranks second in even-strength points (176) and sixth in P/GP (0.72). Now, he's taking his talents from sunny Vegas to drearier Puget Sound, where he signed a seven-year deal worth $6.25 million per season.

That contract is comparable to players who put up similar numbers during that span. However, even with a top-six role, there are a few reasons Stephenson won't be able to maintain his scoring pace with the Kraken.

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The first reason, and perhaps biggest, is the lesser quality of his new linemates. The step down from playing with perennial all-stars such as Jack Eichel and Stone to a team that has never had a player score more than 70 points is quite obvious.

From the time Stephenson joined the Knights, him and Stone were attached at the hip, and for much of their time together their third linemate was either Max Pacioretty or Jack Eichel.

(This isn't exactly late-career Alex Burrows leaving the Canucks and the Sedins to be a fourth-line checker on the struggling Sens, but there certainly are some similarities).

Related: Elias Lindholm: Easy Over on 60 Points?

This will be Dan Bylsma's first season behind the Kraken bench, and we'll have to see what he comes up with in training camp, but their projected lines look like this:

Andre Burakovsky - Matty Beniers - Jordan Eberle
Jared McCann - Chandler Stephenson - Jaden Schwartz
Eeli Tolvanen - Yanni Gourde - Oliver Bjorkstrand
Tye Kartye - Shane Wright - Brandon Tanev

There's not a high-end scoring talent on this lineup. It's so versatile it could look drastically different from game to game, but at his current price tag — he's their highest paid forward now — Stephenson is assured of a top-six role with lots of special teams.

The only real scoring threat to pair with Stephenson is McCann, where 30 goals would be a great season for him. Stone would've done that multiple times had he not been hurt, Pacioretty's done it six times and Eichel does that while sleepwalking.

The question here isn't about quantity — he averaged close to 19 minutes per game in his final three seasons with the Knights — but of quality. When the Kraken offense ranks below average in nearly all offensive categories, it feels far more like an anchor than a buoy.

The other reason is that Stephenson doesn't profile as a high-end offensive player who can spearhead an offense. While his shooting percentage resembles an elite finisher, he doesn't shoot the puck. At all. Of the 124 players who have scored at least 150 points over the past few seasons, Stephenson ranks last with just 342 shots, behind even Charlie McAvoy and Adam Fox. (Stephenson ranks 24th in shooting percentage, however).

When you're not a good shooter, and an infrequent one, too, it's hard to put up numbers without someone else filling the net for you. Indeed, Stephenson's 0.78 second-assist rate per 60 minutes is the best (!) in the league over the past three seasons (min. 200 GP), and the second assist generally tends to based more on luck.

The Kraken's team shooting percentage tends to rank among the lowest third of the league. Asides from their anomalous 2022-23 season where they shot an absurd 10.34 percent at 5-on-5, according to naturalstattrick.com, roughly seven percent (that's a lot!) better than the next team, the Kraken have had trouble scoring; they ranked 19th in their inaugural season and 27th last season.

The Kraken could become a top-heavy two-line team than a balanced four-line team,  but I'm not sure if they can even do it. They don't have an elite scorer and their projected bottom six actually looks quite strong, and leaving them on the bench would be wasteful.

If the Kraken also move Stephenson around the lineup and use him more in a matchup role, look for his offensive zone starts to go down. Because he played with Stone/Pacioretty/Eichel with the Knights, Stephenson started in the offensive zone nearly 60 percent of the time, according to naturalstattrick.com. His possession numbers also suffered when he wasn't playing with either Stone or Eichel.

Stephenson's role may also not be a relied-upon scorer. The Kraken are still trying to their franchise cornerstones, and the focus will be on Matty Beniers and Shane Wright. Stephenson doesn't have to score at a first-line or even second-line rate to justify his big contract; if he can insulate Beniers and Wright while they mature and develop, the benefits will go beyond what Stephenson does on the score sheet.

But that doesn't do much in fantasy, where we're just looking for numbers. Without quality linemates, a playing style that doesn't seem too concerned about generating a lot offense, and different usage on a new team with a brand-new coach, Stephenson seems highly unlikely to replicate his golden numbers.

My initial projections (subject to change) has Stephenson scoring 15 goals and 43 points while averaging 17-18 minutes per game, including special teams where the Kraken have two power play units they deploy equally.

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