Why Blue Jays can't count on Kendrys Morales to have Rogers Centre breakout

The perception of the Toronto Blue Jays’ Kendrys Morales signing has been slowly shifting as Opening Day approaches.

Initially, the move was seen as a hasty misread of the market and the undesirable result of an odd “take-it-or-leave-it” offer to Edwin Encarnacion. Critics questioned – not unreasonably – why the Blue Jays needed to give a 33-year-old designated hitter a three-year deal. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs labelled it the second worst transaction of the offseason.

Since then, the general sentiment seems to have softened. Toronto retained Jose Bautista, meaning that Morales was no longer tasked with being the new power hitter in town as two Blue Jays legends departed. He’s also helped himself by having a fine Grapefruit League campaign, hitting .367/.424/.667 with two home runs.

Over time, the rationalization process has begun to take hold, and there appears to be a growing consensus that Morales will thrive as a Blue Jay. The most compelling logic behind this idea is that escaping the cavernous Kauffman Stadium to call Rogers Centre home will allow the Cuban slugger to reach new heights offensively.

Not only is it an intuitive notion, there’s also a very obvious example of this phenomenon in action on the roster in Josh Donaldson. Donaldson was an extraordinary offensive contributor with the Oakland Athletics prior to his arrival in Toronto, but it’s readily apparent that the difference between O.co Coliseum and Rogers Centre has shown up in his production. Over the last two seasons, the 2015 MVP has hit .314/.406/.620 with 45 home runs in 158 games under the dome.

Clearly it would be unfair to expect that kind of production from Morales, but it certainly figures that he’d enjoy the benefits of his new home in a similar way to Donaldson. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, the two situations aren’t as similar as they appear on the surface.

Although Kauffman has a reputation as a strong pitchers’ park, its massive outfield actually allows for singles, doubles, and triples to fall in at a high enough rate to compensate for the way it suppresses home runs. Over the two years Morales spent there, it’s actually been rated a run-scoring environment that benefits hitters according to both ESPN and Baseball-Reference park factors.

In comparing Kauffman over the last two seasons to Donaldson’s former stomping grounds before he came to Toronto, it’s clear that it would be unfair to assume the DH’s change of scenery will result in the same kind of boost the third baseman got.

Morales is likely to see his home run total jump with the move, but that upgrade won’t come without a cost. The Rogers Centre’s power alleys aren’t as generous and it’s a less bloop-friendly park as outfielders have less turf to cover.

These factors show up in the home/away splits Morales put up during his time with the Kansas City Royals. He had an easier time clearing the wall on the road, but his batting average was lower because there was less real estate for his fly balls and line drives to find the ground. Ultimately, his OPS was exactly equal at Kauffman and elsewhere:

This is consistent with what the Royals as a team have done over that time period, as their ability to generate offence hasn’t suffered from their home park despite a drop in home runs.

Morales likely won’t miss playing 81 games in Kansas City, but it’s a better place to hit than most realize even if the ball tends to stay in the park. It’s a contrast to the Donaldson case where O.co was clearly hampering his production in almost every way, making a breakout at Rogers Centre not too difficult to predict.

None of this is to say that the move to Toronto will hurt Morales. That’s certainly not the case. Hitters tend to have a good time plying their trade north of the border, and he’s likely to see a few more balls clear the fence than he’s used to.

However, those expecting a change of venue to unlock a whole new Morales may be gravely disappointed. Rogers Centre actually ranked just six percent better than Kauffman Stadium by B-R’s park factors and ESPN actually rated it slightly worse.

This move has a great deal of potential to change the shape of Morales’ production as he can expect to hit more home runs, but fewer singles and doubles. Even so, the actual value of that output may not change much at all.